We provide one big question to track, plus we reveal our model’s college football playoff predictions for all four quarterfinal games.
The first round of the College Football Playoff produced four dud games. The quarterfinals that will take place on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day will give us much better action, now that the four lowest seeds are gone and five of the remaining eight look like real title contenders.
The eventual national champ will probably come out of either the Ohio State-Oregon Rose Bowl or the Notre Dame-Georgia Sugar Bowl. Those four teams combine for a 55% chance of winning the title. But Texas also lurks, in large part due to what should be a straightforward Peach Bowl meeting against Arizona State. Meanwhile Penn State is a championship long shot, having failed to beat the most elite teams for years, but is just a win over a Mountain West team, albeit a great one, from the semifinals.
Here’s one big question about each quarterfinal, plus a few notes based on the data for how each could unfold.
Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Penn State vs. No. 3 Boise State (Tuesday, Dec. 31)
One Big Question: Does Penn State have the answers to the Ashton Jeanty test?
Nobody has had them all season – not even No. 1 Oregon when it hosted the Broncos back in Week 2. Jeanty ran 25 times for 192 yards that night in Eugene, a 7.7-yard average that almost resulted in an upset. Jeanty’s worst game was a 33-carry, 128-yard slog against UNLV in October, and even then, the Heisman Trophy finalist got his. Jeanty has had a historic season; nothing defensive coordinators have tried has worked.
Penn State is a different beast than any defense Jeanty has faced. The Nittany Lions rate well in traditional run stats. They gave up 3.9 yards per run play this season (a measurement that strips out their many sacks), eighth-best in the power conferences. Their 59.1% run disruption rate was third-best, and their explosive play rate allowed on runs was 15th-best at 4.7%. Compare that to Oregon, which allowed an explosive run on 7.6% of opposing carries—including a handful of gashes to Jeanty when Boise State visited.
The explosive play measurement is notable against Jeanty, one of the great home run-hitting backs the sport has ever seen. Jeanty led the country in runs of every 10-yard interval from 10-plus to 70-plus. Penn State generally doesn’t allow chunk run plays, and the Lions are facing a guy who gets more of them than anyone else. Would you bet on Jeanty or a defense that’s only allowed 11 runs of 20-plus yards all season? Jeanty will have to be incredible for Boise to have any chance at all. Penn State’s ferocious pass rush led by All-American Abdul Carter generated a 44% pressure rate, while Boise’s offensive line yielded an ugly 34% pressure rate protecting its quarterbacks this year. Maddux Madsen will not have much time when he drops back. Jeanty’s tall task is to make sure Madsen doesn’t need to drop back more than 20 or so times.
- TRACR‘s Projected Winner (With Probability): Penn State (89.5%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: Penn State -10.5
Peach Bowl: No. 5 Texas vs. No. 4 Arizona State (Wednesday, Jan. 1)
One Big Question: Can Arizona State find a downfield passing game?
When Arizona State receiver Jordyn Tyson went out with an injury before the Big 12 Championship, it spelled trouble for the Sun Devils. At least it should have. Tyson is the program’s only productive wideout, and his absence figured to allow Iowa State to load up against star running back Cam Skattebo, given a non-threatening ASU downfield passing game. It didn’t work out that way, though. The downfield game indeed didn’t do much outside of a fourth-down deep shot from Sam Leavitt to Melquan Stovall early on, but Skattebo just bulldozed ISU as both a runner and pass-catcher. He finished with 208 yards on 18 touches and three touchdowns.
Is it reckless to make the same prediction twice? I really don’t think ASU will be able to Skattebo its way to glory against Texas. The Longhorns have a buttoned-up run defense that dominates week in and week out at the point of attack. The defensive line is so strong that the Horns have allowed a strong 34.9% run success rate and generated an elite 49.2% run disruption rate despite barely ever loading the box with extra players. Texas’ 30.6% heavy box percentage is among the lowest in the FBS. Tackles Alfred Collins and Vernon Broughton just do not get thrown off the line. Skattebo has run for at least 147 yards in four of his past five games, but Texas hasn’t let an individual back put more than 116 yards (as Florida’s Ja’Kobi Jackson did in Week 11) on them all season. Arizona State is going to need Leavitt to make some plays. Probably a lot of plays. With which receivers? Maybe Stovall, but it’s hard to say.
Kenny Dillingham needs to devise the gameplan of a lifetime. According to TRACR, Texas has the highest likelihood of reaching the semifinals among all eight quarterfinalists.
- TRACR’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Texas (89.7%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: Texas -13.5
Rose Bowl: No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Oregon (Wednesday, Jan. 1)
One Big Question: Who will make the huge play on the margins?
Do not overcomplicate this game. Ohio State and Oregon will trade lots of blows. At different points in the game, each will look like they have the upper hand. Then the third quarter will end, ESPN will show a beautiful shot of the sun setting on the San Gabriel Mountains, and a few plays in the fourth quarter will decide which of these teams emerges as the national title favorite. Last time, in Eugene, a 32-31 Ducks win came down to a crafty 12-men-on-the-field penalty and a Will Howard slide that was about a half-second too late.
Both teams have an embarrassment of riches at the offensive skill positions. Jeremiah Smith could win it for OSU, or Tez Johnson could for Oregon, and on and on. But a defensive splash could just as easily be the difference.
For Ohio State, watch veteran edge rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau, who have paced the unit all season and combined for 22 adjusted sacks plus 39 run stuffs. Both were inspired in the first round against Tennessee, playing like dudes who were absolutely furious in the wake of the Michigan loss that capped the regular season. For Oregon, the key man may be tackle Derrick Harmon, whose 18 run stuffs and 10 adjusted sacks exemplified what a load he’s been in the middle of the Duck defense. The Michigan State transfer has been a revelation this season, and he’s a good fit for Ohio State’s most glaring offensive weakness: a backup center trying to pace a sometimes-awful short yardage run game. Buckeye starting center Seth McLaughlin was still on the field last time these teams played. His injury shifted guard Carson Hinzman to snapper and resulted in redshirt freshman Austin Siereveld joining the lineup at left guard. We’ll see how much havoc Harmon can wreak against them.
- TRACR’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Ohio State (79.2%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: Ohio State -2.5
Sugar Bowl: No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (Wednesday, Jan. 1)
One Big Question: How good are Georgia’s backup QB and Notre Dame’s depth defensive linemen?
Welcome to your first career start, Georgia QB Gunner Stockton. It’s the biggest game of the year, and you’re facing a defense that rates between “well above average” and “mega-elite” in every stat that matters. Notre Dame stops the run like gangbusters and has one of the most athletic, aggressive secondaries in college football. Marcus Freeman’s defense has future NFL players at all three levels. The Irish allow just a 5.9% explosive play rate (power conference average: 8%) and won’t give anything easily to the quarterback entering the spotlight. Notre Dame generated a 41.6% pressure rate, 12th among power conference-equivalent teams. This will be very, very hard.
No. 1 quarterback Carson Beck’s absence with an elbow injury is the biggest one in this game, but Notre Dame has a significant injury problem of its own. Defensive tackle Rylie Mills hurt his right knee while sacking Indiana’s Kurtis Rourke in the first round and is now out for the season himself. Mills was Notre Dame’s best run-stuffer, with a 15.4% run disruption rate that led the team, and was also a serious pass-rushing force up the middle who produced 7.5 sacks to lead the team. The Irish are fortunate that the other half of their skilled tackle duo, Howard Cross, returned from his own injury for Notre Dame’s first-round game. Georgia has not had its usual dominant offensive line this season, but Mills’ absence might open space for UGA’s running backs that otherwise would not have been there.
- TRACR’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Notre Dame (58.4%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: Notre Dame +1.5
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