With the help of our trusty supercomputer, we’re providing college football predictions for every game each week.
As always, our projection model is spitting out its data-backed predictions for all college football games throughout the 2024 season.
In a relatively wide-open landscape this year, traditional SEC powerhouses Alabama and Georgia are among the favorites to win the national championship. Tennessee and Ole Miss are also contenders, with SEC newcomer Texas showing it’s also a legitimate threat.
Big Ten teams Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State all expect to be vying for a place in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Utah and Kansas State were the early favorites in an unpredictable Big 12, while Boise State, Notre Dame, and SMU hope to make the playoff from outside the power conferences.
Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our TRACR-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season.
TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency stat that measures how a team should play against a standardized level of competition. The model is based on an EPA (expected points added) calculation weighed by opponent strength.
A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team in the FBS. So if a team with a 7.5 TRACR faced a team with a minus-3.0 TRACR, the better team would be a 10.5-point favorite, according to the model.
Each week throughout the NCAA football season, our model will have something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like Ohio State-Michigan in another chapter of a legendary rivalry, or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its college football picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.
We kick off our Week 8 predictions with Oregon visiting Purdue Friday night. More key matchups follow, including two SEC showdowns with Alabama traveling to Tennessee before Georgia visits Texas Saturday night in season-defining matchups with College Football Playoff implications.
For those matchups and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our predictive model and come up with its Week 8 predictions.
Note: The ranking below represents where the team sits in TRACR, while the percentage indicates win probability for the given matchup.
Friday Night
No. 14 Oregon 97.0% at No. 104 Purdue 3.0%
Oregon’s victory over Ohio State last week was just its second over a top-two opponent in school history, joining the 2015 Rose Bowl win over No. 2 Florida State.
Saturday
No. 8 Miami (FL) 81.7% at No. 27 Louisville 18.3%
Louisville has won four of its last six games against Miami dating back to 2006, averaging 32.8 points per game against the Hurricanes over this span. Prior to this, Miami had won seven straight games against Louisville from 1979-2004. The Hurricanes are third in the nation in offensive TRACR (19.8) so far this season.
No. 21 Wisconsin 81.6% at No. 91 Northwestern 18.4%
Northwestern had won six of seven against ranked Wisconsin teams at home before suffering a 42-7 loss to the unranked Badgers in Evanston in 2022. The Wildcats won last year’s meeting in Madison 24-10.
No. 53 Virginia 6.7% at No. 5 Clemson 93.3%
Clemson has won five straight against Virginia, with the average margin of victory being 27.0 points. The Cavs had lost 17 straight games against top-10 opponents before winning at No. 10 North Carolina last season (31-27).
No. 16 Nebraska 38.3% at No. 10 Indiana 61.7%
Indiana is the fourth Big Ten team in the last 10 years to start a season with six straight 14+ point wins, joining Ohio State in 2019 (10 straight), Michigan in 2023 (9) and Penn State in 2023 (6). It’s the first time Indiana has ever opened a season with six consecutive 14+ point wins.
No. 22 Arizona State 68.8% at No. 51 Cincinnati 31.2%
This matchup could be won up front. Arizona State ranks 12th in the country in rushing TRACR (16.5), while Cincinnati is 65th against the run (-1.4).
No. 111 East Carolina 2.1% at No. 11 Army West Point 97.9%
Army leads all FBS teams with 26 rushing touchdowns. Bryson Dailly (14) and Kanye Udoh (7) have combined for 21 of these 26 rush TDs, the most by any teammate duo in the FBS this season.
No. 6 Alabama 50.3% at No. 7 Tennessee 49.7%
Alabama has won 16 of its last 17 games against Tennessee, with the one loss coming on the road in 2022. The only SEC teams with more losses to a single school since 2007 than Tennessee’s 16 to Alabama are Kentucky (17 vs. Georgia) and Arkansas (17 vs. Alabama).
No. 110 Charlotte 5.1% at No. 26 Navy 94.9%
Navy is 5-0 for the first time since 2017 and is seeking its first 6-0 start since 1979 – it finished that season 7-4. The Midshipmen rank fifth in the FBS with 43.6 points per game and their 218 points are their most through five games since 1918 when they finished 4-1 and outscored opponents 283-20, including a 127-0 win over Ursinus.
No. 9 Notre Dame 77.0% at No. 30 Georgia Tech 23.0%
Notre Dame has won three straight games against Georgia Tech dating back to 2015, winning by an average margin of 27 points. The Fighting Irish won the last matchup (2021) by a score of 55-0 – Georgia Tech’s second-largest margin of defeat against any team in the last 40 years (66-point loss to Clemson in 2020).
No. 112 Rice 5.1% at No. 24 Tulane 94.9%
Tulane is one of the nation’s best passing teams, ranking 14th in passing TRACR (20.7). That doesn’t bode well for a Rice team that sits 76th in TRACR against the pass (1.8).
No. 18 USC 90.2% at No. 75 Maryland 9.8%
USC figures to have a big advantage running the football. The Trojans rank third in the nation in rushing TRACR (23.7), while Maryland is 50th against the run (-4.5).
No. 23 Texas A&M 89.0% at No. 82 Mississippi State 11.0%
Texas A&M was idle after a 41-10 over No. 9 Missouri, the Aggies’ largest win over a top-10 team in program history. The Aggies’ five-game win streak is their longest since an 11-game run from October 2020 to September 2021. They’re seeking their first 6-1 start since 2020.
Saturday Night
No. 28 LSU 44.1% at No. 15 Arkansas 55.9%
LSU has won seven of the last eight meetings with Arkansas and leads the all-time series 44-23-2, including 5-2 in Fayetteville. Each of the last four matchups has been decided by three points. Last season, Damian Ramos hit a 20-yard field goal to take the lead with 5 seconds left in regulation.
No. 13 Georgia 25.2% at No. 1 Texas 74.8%
Georgia and Texas will meet for the sixth time ever and first time as SEC rivals; Texas has won four of the first five, most recently taking a 28-21 win in the 2019 Sugar Bowl. This will mark the first top-five matchup in Austin since then-No. 2 Texas hosted No. 1 Ohio State in September 2006.
No. 40 UCF 29.5% at No. 17 Iowa State 70.5%
UCF’s offense ranks first in the Big 12 and 13th in the FBS in total yards per game (473.8) while Iowa State’s defense ranks first in the Big 12 and 15th in the FBS in yards allowed per game (285.3).
No. 20 Kansas State 64.2% at No. 32 West Virginia 35.8%
Kansas State has won the last two meetings with West Virginia after the Mountaineers won the previous five. The Wildcats scored a 48-31 victory in Morgantown the last time they met in 2022, which is still their most points scored in a road game over the last 10 years.
No. 39 Kentucky 41.9% at No. 25 Florida 58.1%
No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Penn State, No. 4 Ole Miss, No. 12 Boise State and No. 19 Pitt have a bye week.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!
