With the help of our trusty supercomputer, we’re providing college football predictions for every game each week.
As always, our projection model is spitting out its data-backed predictions for all college football games throughout the 2024 season.
In a relatively wide-open landscape, traditional SEC powerhouses Alabama and Georgia remain among the favorites to win the national championship. Tennessee and Ole Miss are also contenders, with SEC newcomer Texas showing it’s also a legitimate threat.
Big Ten teams Indiana, Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State are all vying for a place in the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff. Iowa State, BYU and Kansas State have emerged in the unpredictable Big 12, while Boise State, Notre Dame, Army and SMU hope to make the playoff from outside the power conferences.
Our TRACR-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this college football season. TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency stat that measures how a team should play against a standardized level of competition. The model is based on an EPA (expected points added) calculation weighed by opponent strength.
A team with a TRACR of 0.0 is considered an average team. So if a team with a 7.5 TRACR faced a team with a minus-3.0 TRACR on a neutral site, the better team would be expected to win by about 10.5 points if both teams ran the same number of plays, according to the model.
Each week throughout the NCAA football season, our model will have something to say about every game. No matter if it’s a headliner like Ohio State-Michigan in another chapter of a legendary rivalry, or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its college football picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.
Several key matchups take place across the Week 12 college football slate, with AP No. 5 Indiana visiting No. 2 Ohio State, No. 14 BYU traveling to face No. 21 Arizona State and No. 18 Army West Point heading to No. 6 Notre Dame later in the evening.
For those matchups and everything between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our predictive model and received the win probabilities.
Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shake things up (the following win probabilities were as of Thursday). You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.
Note: The ranking below represents where the team sits in TRACR, while the percentage indicates win probability for the given matchup.
Saturday’s Games
at No. 1 Ohio State 67.1%, No. 6 Indiana 32.9%
Indiana hasn’t beaten Ohio State in its last 31 tries (30 losses, one tie), with the most recent victory coming on Oct. 8, 1988. This will be the fourth ranked matchup between these two teams (2020, 1993, 1944).
at No. 2 Texas 91.4%, No. 26 Kentucky 8.6%
Texas shut out Arkansas in the first half in its last game, its second straight game doing so (versus Florida). The last time the Longhorns shut out their opponents in the first half in back-to-back games was Nov. 5-12, 2005.
No. 3 Ole Miss 82.8%, at No. 10 Florida 17.2%
Florida has scored 30 or more points against Ole Miss in four straight games, their longest active streak against a conference opponent. The Gators have won three of these games including a 51-point outing in 2020, the most points scored by either team in series history.
at No. 4 Georgia 99.9%, No. 124 UMass 0.1%
Georgia has won 29 straight home games, the longest active streak in the FBS and the third-longest streak by an SEC team in the last 40 years (Alabama – 31 from 2015-19; Florida – 30 from 1994-99)
No. 5 Alabama 84.8%, at No. 21 Oklahoma 15.2%
Jalen Milroe is the only FBS player this season with 15+ passing touchdowns and 15+ rushing touchdowns. He’s the fifth SEC player to hit those marks in a season this century, and the first since Mississippi State’s Nick Fitzgerald in 2016.
at No. 7 Tennessee 99.8%, No. 126 UTEP 0.2%
Tennessee’s defense has forced a three-and-out on 29.4% of its opponent’s drive, best in the SEC and fifth in the FBS.
No 8 Penn State 84.0%, at No. 32 Minnesota 16.0%
Minnesota has won its last two home games against Penn State, with the Nittany Lions’ last win in Minnesota coming in 2010. The last game played at Minnesota between these teams in 2019 featured four players with 100+ receiving yards (KJ Hamler, Pat Freiermuth, Rashod
Bateman, Tyler Johnson)
No. 9 Notre Dame 71.8%, No. 20 Army 28.2% (at Yankee Stadium)
Notre Dame has won 15 straight games against Army dating back to 1965. This will be the second game between these teams played at the new Yankee Stadium (ND 27-3 win in 2010). These teams had played 22 games at the original Yankee Stadium from 1925-69.
at No. 11 South Carolina 99.9%, FCS Wofford 0.1%
This season will be the first time South Carolina finishes SEC play on a win streak of at least four games since ending the 2005 season with five straight conference wins.
No. 12 Texas A&M 65.9%, at No. 24 Auburn 34.1%
Texas A&M and Auburn have each won six of their 12 meetings since the Aggies joined the Southeastern Conference in 2012, but A&M is 4-2 on the Plains. Georgia (5-2) is the only other SEC opponent who has won four or more games in Auburn over that span.
at No. 14 LSU 73.7%, No. 38 Vanderbilt 26.3%
LSU, which ranks fourth in the SEC in offensive TRACR, should be able put up some points against a Vanderbilt team that ranks second to last in the league in defensive TRACR.
at No. 15 Arkansas 99.0%, No. 114 Louisiana Tech 1.0%
Arkansas hopes to avoid its first single-season four-game home losing streak since dropping five straight in 2019.
No. 16 USC 79.2%, at No. 46 UCLA 20.8%
This will be something of a strength vs. strength matchup. While USC leads the Big Ten in rushing TRACR, UCLA ranks fourth in TRACR against the run.
at No. 17 Miami (FL) 93.6%, No. 73 Wake Forest 6.4%
The Hurricanes rank first in the FBS in points per game (45.0) and total yards per game (544.8). No ACC team has ever led the FBS (or Division I pre-1978) in both categories in the same season since the conference’s founding in 1953.
at No. 18 Clemson 99.9%, FCS Citadel 0.1%
Clemson is 33-5-1 against Citadel, including 18 straight wins. Citadel has not scored a touchdown against Clemson in each of the last three matchups, with its last touchdown against the Tigers coming on Sept. 6, 2008.
No. 19 SMU 87.6%, at No. 62 Virginia 12.4%
SMU has racked up at least 140 rushing yards and 240 passing yards in each of its last six games, the longest such streak in the FBS this season. The Mustangs have at least 430 total yards of offense in all six, the longest active streak behind Miami (FL) (10 straight).
No. 22 Virginia Tech 84.8%, at No. 59 Duke 15.2%
Per TRACR, Virginia Tech has the best defense in the ACC. That’s likely to be a problem for Duke, which ranks dead last in offensive TRACR in the league.
at No. 23 Louisville 71.9%, No. 47 Pittsburgh 28.1%
The Cardinals are second in the ACC in offensive TRACR (14.1), behind only Miami (FL) and far ahead of Clemson (9.8). They’re likely to focus their attention on the passing game since Pitt sits third-to-last in the league in TRACR against the pass.
No. 25 Iowa 84.0%, at No. 60 Maryland 16.0%
TRACR No. 13 Oregon is on bye. AP Top 25 teams not ranked in the TRACR top 25: No. 12 Boise State, No. 14 BYU, No. 16 Colorado, No. 20 Tulane, No. 21 Arizona State, No. 22 Iowa State, No. 23 UNLV, No. 24 Illinois and No. 25 Washington State.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Be sure to check out our MLB and NBA coverage, as well as all our college football and NFL picks. Follow us on X, Threads, Facebook, Bluesky and Instagram for more!
