The defending NFC champions hobble into Sunday night’s matchup against Dallas, but they may have the perfect get-well opponent in the flailing Cowboys. We explain and give our Cowboys vs. 49ers predictions.
The pressure was already on both the San Francisco 49ers and Dallas Cowboys since the start of this NFL season. Now it’s been turned up to another level.
Though each of these expected NFC contenders finds itself in an unfamiliar spot in regard to the standings, the adversity both teams will be bringing into this very important NBC Sunday Night Football showdown is nothing new.
A midseason matchup of participants hovering at or below the .500 mark generally shouldn’t generate a whole lot of buzz.
But when those combatants are two of the most consistently successful teams in recent times – and two forecasted to be among the NFC’s major players this season – it moves the needle a bit more.
That’s one reason why this clash of storied powers measures a 72 on our SmartRatings scale, the highest of any game on the NFL Week 8 schedule. The model measures an NFL game’s excitement level based on pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz to create a rating that translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
Still, most of the talk leading into Sunday’s contest revolves around the significant star power that may not be taking the field at San Francisco’s Levi’s Stadium.
The 3-3 Cowboys could again be without game-wrecking pass rusher Micah Parsons as well as four-time Pro Bowl end DeMarcus Lawrence, an ominous prospect for a defense that was absolutely trucked by the in-form Detroit Lions during a 47-9 Week 6 loss that stands as Dallas’ most lopsided home defeat since 1988.
That outlook does appear a good deal brighter, though, when factoring in all the missing pieces the 49ers may be potentially replacing this weekend.
A unit that’s yet to have reigning NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey take a snap this season is now dealing with some serious attrition at wide receiver, as its top three performers at the position could all conceivably miss Sunday’s contest.
Brandon Aiyuk certainly won’t play after tearing both his ACL and MCL in last week’s 28-18 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Jauan Jennings was inactive for the Super Bowl rematch with a hip issue, while the dynamic Deebo Samuel barely saw the field while battling a bout of pneumonia that forced a brief hospital stay following the game.
Those depletions had to play at least some role in Brock Purdy delivering arguably the worst performance of his career, a three-interception disaster in which the normally heady and pinpoint quarterback completed just 54.8% of his attempts.
Each of those turnovers were either a result of Purdy forcing a ball into tight coverage or, as the clip below illustrates, an obvious communication breakdown with one of the replacement receivers (Ronnie Bell in this case).
Aiyuk’s season-ending injury probably won’t help matters, though his unavailability would be a much larger dilemma if this were 2022 or 2023. The fifth-year standout led all wide receivers with at least 50 targets over those two seasons in burn rate (76.8) while getting open on 80.3% of his looks during that period.
Quite possibly the after-effects of a protracted training-camp holdout that ultimately led to the lucrative contract extension he was seeking, Aiyuk hasn’t quite been the same guy in 2024. His open rate of 61.7% is nearly 10% below the league average for wide receivers, while just 53.2% of his targets have gone for completions. Aiyuk compiled a stellar 69.9% catch rate over the course of his terrific 2022 and 2023 campaigns.
The Niners still have a couple of things going for them despite their disappointing 3-4 start and bad injury luck. They’re fortunate to reside in an NFC West division that appears to lack a true heavyweight, and they’ve already beaten the currently front-running Seahawks in Seattle.
Secondly, they’ve proven to be one of the league’s most resourceful teams under the stable guidance of head coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch.
San Francisco has navigated McCaffrey’s injury pretty well with Jordan Mason slotting in as a quite capable, albeit less versatile, lead back. And with Jennings looking ready for a starring role after a few years of playing understudy, plus a couple of intriguing rookies waiting in the wings, it just may have the Aiyuk situation covered as well.
With the exception of ultra-trusty tight end George Kittle, Jennings has been the 49ers’ most effective pass catcher this season while providing enhanced value with his ability to beat coverages when lined up either inside or out. His open and catch rates of 69.4% trump both Samuel and Aiyuk, and he’s developed into one of the league’s better big-play threats with six receptions of 25 or more yards. Only four players (Justin Jefferson, George Pickens, Nico Collins, Ja’Marr Chase) have more such catches this season.
Though usually positioned in the slot when both Aiyuk and Samuel are also on the field, Jennings has actually been more dangerous when working as an outside receiver. Good thing, since that’s likely to be his main role if active Sunday considering Samuel is a major question mark to even suit up this week, much less play a regular allotment of snaps.
Jennings proved he’s more than just a slot guy with his 11-catch, three-touchdown breakout effort with Samuel sidelined for San Francisco’s Week 3 win over the Los Angeles Rams, as 114 of his career-best 175 yards that day came when lined up outside.
The underrated former seventh-round pick also sports an exceptional 75.0% burn rate as an outside receiver (compared to 55.0% from the slot), and ranks among the league leaders in burn yards per target when stationed on the flanks.
The 49ers are still going to need someone else to step up, perhaps 2024 first-round pick Ricky Pearsall (who made his debut last week after a remarkable recovery from a gunshot wound) or fellow rookie Jacob Cowing, assuming that one of Samuel or Jennings doesn’t play or if the former’s usage is limited.
Both youngsters were primarily slot receivers in college, however, which increases the likelihood of Jennings taking over Aiyuk’s usual duties and avoiding a very tough matchup with Dallas nickel back Jourdan Lewis, who owns a sensational 18.8% burn-allowed rate and has surrendered just 5.24 burn yards per target when covering the slot this season.
Of course, the easiest way to compensate for a shorthanded group of receivers is to simply run the ball. And expect the 49ers to do so early and often come Sunday night.
Though he may not have anywhere near McCaffrey’s chops as a receiver, Mason is the latest graduate of the famed Mike Shanahan zone-blocking scheme that’s previously turned many an unheralded running back into a highly productive impact player (we’re not about to make any Terrell Davis comparisons here, but think along the lines of Raheem Mostert, Arian Foster or Alfred Morris).
The undrafted third-year pro is in the top 10 among running backs with at least 55 carries this season in both yards after contact (2.22) and missed/broken tackles per touch (.254), and has done so while touching the ball on nearly 40% of the team’s offensive plays.
HIGHEST% OF TEAM’S TOTAL TOUCHES
- 45.9% – Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
- 43.0% – Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
- 40.9% – Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans
- 40.7% – Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
- 40.6% – Breece Hall, New York Jets
- 39.4% – Jordan Mason, San Francisco 49ers
Mason will be taking on a Dallas defense that’s been a real up-and-down outfit against the run, as it’s smothered opposing ground games in each of the Cowboys’ three wins but has been a virtual turnstile in all of their three losses.
While it’s worth noting that all three of the Cowboys’ good efforts have come on the road (wins over the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers), the other correlation is that they’ve all come against bad running teams. The Browns and Giants have been two of the league’s most inept offenses, ranking 32nd and 30th, respectively, in EVE (efficiency vs. expected). The Steelers are 27th overall in both rushing yards per play and run play success.
Conversely, Dallas has been manhandled when up against teams that run the ball effectively, a category where the 49ers belong. The Baltimore Ravens’ potent ground game rolled for 274 yards and three touchdowns in Week 3, one week after the Cowboys surrendered 190 rushing yards and four scores in a blowout loss to the New Orleans Saints. And Mike Zimmer’s defense was last seen yielding 184 rushing yards to the Lions in its Week 6 debacle.
Our model has Mason putting up one of the best running back performances of Week 8, projecting him for a big game with 121.1 yards and 0.9 touchdowns on 22.3 carries.
The way to beat the 49ers, who our model sees as the best bets in this one with a 64.6% win probability, is to induce turnovers like the Chiefs were able to do a week ago. San Francisco has lost all of Purdy’s five career starts in which he’s tossed multiple interceptions, but it’s 24-5 (a winning percentage of .828) when he’s had one or less.
The Dallas defense hasn’t been the takeaway machine it was under now-Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn, when the Cowboys led the NFL with 59 interceptions from 2021-23. There’s still more than enough talent on hand, however, to pressure Purdy into mistakes, but that can only occur if Dallas can contain the run to at least a reasonable extent.
The task isn’t going to be easy for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and the underdog Cowboys, though the 49ers’ shortening list of healthy playmakers gives the defending NFC champions yet another challenge to overcome as well.
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