England have lost their last seven games against Tier One countries and there has been a clear and recurring theme to those defeats.
I don’t think Steve Borthwick’s side have played badly in any of those matches. But the facts are the facts and it’s quite clear England are often falling away badly in the last 20 minutes.
In each of those seven, England were ahead in the final half-hour, before slipping to defeat. None of the losses were heavy – South Africa‘s nine-point win in November was the biggest margin and five of the defeats were by less than one score – but England just could not cling on to claim crucial victories.
It is proving decisive. International rugby matches are normally won and lost in the final quarter and it is in this period that England are coming up short.
That much was shown again when they were beaten by Ireland in their Six Nations opener in Dublin, having been ahead until the 51st minute.
Make no mistake, it’s an issue head coach Borthwick has to address if the team is going to turn the narrow losses that are becoming common into victories.
England led in Dublin until the 51st minute, when Bundee Aki crashed over out wide
Ireland scored three second-half tries as they ground down England’s tired defence
It will be the talk of the England camp. The players will be immensely frustrated by the same familiar theme coming back to haunt them. It is, however, not an easy fix.
The issues England are having reminds me a lot of the trouble we had with the Wales teams I was a part of when we used to face New Zealand.
It remains the case that no Wales side has beaten the All Blacks since 1953. In the games I played in, we were often very competitive with them up until the hour mark, before they would pull away.
I remember one particular game in Cardiff when we were 16-15 up. We sensed we could eke out a victory which would have put our names in Welsh folklore.
But then New Zealand brought on Sonny Bill Williams, Beauden Barrett and TJ Perenara – which was nice of them – and the rest was history.
There are similarities which can be drawn between the cases of those Wales sides I played in and the England team of today. It’s not that England aren’t fit enough. And that certainly wasn’t the case with Wales.
For me, it’s more that the effort England are putting into the game in the first 60 minutes is having to be so big for them to stay in contention, that they’re unable to do it for the full 80.
Some might see that as a lack of conditioning. But it’s not that. There is no way England’s players aren’t fit enough to be playing at this level.
England made 156 tackles against Ireland but eventually the dam burst at the Aviva Stadium
The mental and physical effort needed to keep repelling Ireland eventually took its toll
Speaking from personal experience, it’s more that the effort of the first hour – where you have to do so much work – takes a mental toll as much as physical.
In the case of the Ireland game, England also couldn’t get the impact from the bench they’d have liked. Ireland’s replacements really changed the game, with the likes of Dan Sheehan, Robbie Henshaw, Iain Henderson and Jack Conan making significant contributions.
You also have to consider the reality, which is that apart from Australia, the teams that have beaten England since last summer are better sides – New Zealand, South Africa and Ireland.
Australia are the only team to beat England who you would probably say are a weaker side than them on paper. So, what do England do?
It’s very tricky to turn it around in the space of a week with France coming to the Allianz Stadium on Saturday. What is clear to me is that England can’t abandon their high-octane policy they’ve used in the first hour of matches, because it has got them into winning positions.
What they have to do is ensure that all that work can get them a bigger buffer against late-game collapses, by building a larger lead when they are on top.
Against Ireland, they did brilliantly in the first half but only led 10-5 at the break. It wasn’t enough. England have to take every chance that comes their way in attack.
They have to be clinical. Every line break must be converted into a try. Clearly, that is very tough to do. But it’s what England have to do to beat the best right now.
England’s struggles remind me of mine with Wales against New Zealand
We struggled for years to get over the line against Australia but eventually beat them
The reality is they are not as good as the likes of Ireland, France, New Zealand and South Africa as things stand.
What saps your energy in Test rugby is playing without the ball. England made an enormous 156 tackles on Saturday and the cost of that was evident.
What I think England could look at is how much energy they are using up in the middle third of the pitch. This is where Marcus Smith’s game management at No 10 comes in.
As a team, you want to be saving your full throttle sets for when you’re in the two 22s – either when you’re trying to stop your opposition scoring or trying to score yourself.
I wonder if England could look to play less with the ball in the middle third and use more of a kicking game. Forcing more territory means you are using up less energy in the middle of the field, where the outcomes aren’t going to be game-defining.
Borthwick also needs more from his replacements. He could consider squad rotation and putting some of his better players on the bench, but I don’t think that will happen.
England put it all out there in the first half in Dublin, but only led by five at the break. Their challenge against France is to do likewise but ensure a greater buffer.
Jack Conan and the rest of Ireland’s replacements made a huge impact for the home side
England’s substitutes just could not keep up with the relentless Irish pressure
That will give them a far better chance of success, although going toe-to-toe with Les Bleus is going to be no easy task with their monster pack being an even bigger physical challenge.
England aren’t a million miles away and once you get one win, things can snowball from there. With Wales, I lost regularly to Australia and often by a point or two in a run of 13 straight defeats by the Wallabies.
When we finally got that monkey off our back in 2018 with the ugliest of 9-6 victories, it gave us the belief we could beat them regularly and that’s what we did.
I’m sure England can do likewise, but they will have to improve quickly this week to beat France.
