The odds have been stacked against the Cincinnati Bengals early on. But with Joe Burrow leading the way, they’re digging out of their own grave yet again. Our model‘s Eagles vs Bengals predictions point to them keeping it going at home in Week 8.
Halloween is nearly upon us and it’s the time for a good scare, whether it’s haunted houses, spooky cemeteries or clowns.
And while few things are scarier to NFL fans than an injury to their starting quarterback, a disastrous start to the season to derail any playoff hopes and make the rest of the year virtual meaningless is similarly frightening.
An 0-3 start is essentially a death sentence for an NFL team.
That’s exactly where the Cincinnati Bengals found themselves following a 38-33 loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 3.
In the 22 completed seasons since the NFL expanded to 32 teams and adjusted to eight divisions in 2002, there have been 103 instances of a team starting 0-3. And of those 103 teams, just one made the playoffs – the 2018 Houston Texans. Since the advent of the 14-team playoff format in 2020, all 16 teams that started winless through three games missed the playoffs.
The odds have been stacked against the Bengals, but they’re in the process of digging themselves out of their own grave. As of Saturday, our projection model gave them a 48.1% chance of reaching the postseason.
Before they can crawl all the way out and join those with a playoff pulse, they have to get back to .500 – something they can accomplish with a win this Sunday against Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley and the visiting Philadelphia Eagles at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati (on CBS).
Slow starts have been the norm for the 3-4 Bengals over the last few years, but this NFL season was supposed to be different. Joe Burrow began this season healthy for the first time since his 2020 rookie season, but just like in 2022 and 2023, the team opened up with back-to-back losses.
The Bengals then fell to the Washington Commanders to start 0-3 for the first time since beginning with 11 straight defeats in 2019 – the year before they drafted Burrow with the top pick.
Burrow’s play this year has helped keep Cincinnati’s season from spiraling out of control.
With 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions, he has a career-high 110.1 passer rating to trail only Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens (118.0) and Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions (111. 5) for tops in the league. He also ranks fifth in total QB EVE (180.5), which measures yards gained compared to the league-wide projected amount in expected passing situations.
He’s managed to climb the leaderboards following a ho-hum performance in the opener – his first action since tearing a ligament in his right wrist in Week 11 of the 2023 season. Since passing for 164 yards without a touchdown in a Week 1 loss to the New England Patriots, Burrow’s well-thrown percentage (88.3) and pickable pass rate (0.53) both top the NFL.
Burrow hasn’t been asked to do too much in Cincinnati’s last two games – a 17-7 win over the New York Giants in NFL Week 6 and a 21-14 AFC victory over the Cleveland Browns last Sunday. He attempted 28 and 25 passes, respectively, after attempting 31, 36, 38 and 39 in the previous four games.
Part of the drop-off in pass attempts had to do with how the games played out, with the Bengals playing from ahead and never trailing since the opening minutes. They’ve thrown on 57.1% of offensive plays in the last two weeks after recording the league’s seventh-highest rate of passing plays through five weeks at 62.2%.
Against the Browns, he threw an 18-yard touchdown pass to Ja’Marr Chase and later connected with Tee Higgins for a 25-yard score with Higgins scampering 20 yards to the end zone after breaking away from Browns cornerback Cameron Mitchell.
Chase finished with 55 receiving yards, bringing his season total to a league-leading 620. The three-time Pro Bowler also leads the NFL with six touchdown receptions.
The Burrow-Chase connection has been one of the most fearsome QB-receiver combos dating to the pair’s days together at LSU, and it is the league’s top duo through the first seven weeks of this season.
Highest Passer Rating for QB-Pass Catcher Combos (Min. 40 Targets)
- 141.0 – Joe Burrow & Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengals
- 133.3 – C.J. Stroud & Nico Collins, Houston Texans
- 132.1 – Sam Darnold & Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
- 125.5 – Baker Mayfield & Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- 123.6 – Brock Purdy & George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
Chase makes up half of Cincinnati’s dangerous one-two punch at receiver, as Burrow also has recorded a 109.6 QB rating on his 45 throws to Tee Higgins. The fifth-year receiver has caught 29 of those passes for 341 yards with three touchdowns.
While Chase is the Bengals’ top downfield threat – only the Minnesota Vikings’ Justin Jefferson and Pittsburgh Steelers’ George Pickens have more pass receptions of 25+ yards (eight) than his seven – Higgins’ return has helped Burrow and the offense get in gear after sputtering early.
Higgins missed the first two games of the season because of a nagging hamstring injury, and the Bengals are a completely different team when he’s on the field.
Since Week 3, Burrow has targeted Chase and Higgins each 29 times, though he’s not solely focusing on those two. He is spreading the ball around, as the Bengals are the only team to have seven players with at least 14 receptions.
While Burrow is effective passing the ball on quick hitters and out of play action, he’s been his most dangerous when he drops back to throw.
On 60 attempts on drop-back concepts, he’s recorded both the highest completion percentage (71.7) and well-thrown percentage (90.0), as well as the lowest pickable pass rate (0.00) among qualifying QBs – and his stats are significantly better than the league average in these categories.
Burrow is looking comfortable in the pocket, though he has been dealing with a fair amount of pressure. He was sacked three times by the Browns one week after the Giants sacked him four times.
Although he’s now facing an Eagles team that has racked up 13 sacks in the last two weeks, there’s reason to believe Cincinnati will be able to contain Philadelphia’s pass rush.
Sure, the NFC playoff-hopeful Eagles sacked Daniel Jones seven times and took down Drew Lock once in last Sunday’s 28-3 win after sacking Deshaun Watson five times in a 20-16 victory over the Browns in Week 6, but those showings came against two of the league’s most inept offenses.
Prior to obliterating those inferior foes, Philadelphia had just six sacks before its Week 5 bye. Through four weeks, the Eagles registered the NFL’s fifth-worst pressure rate at 36.5, and only the Atlanta Falcons (3.0) had a lower sack rate than the Eagles (4.2).
The Bengals, meanwhile, faced two of the league’s top teams at applying pressure in their last two games, as the Browns rank third in pressure rate (48.9), while the Giants rank first in sack rate (13.4).
It will be no walk in the park – or cemetery – but the offensive line should have better luck warding off any pass rushers – or evil spirits – and protect Burrow this Sunday. We project Burrow to have 24.7 completions in 33.8 attempts for 293.5 yards with 1.8 TDs and 0.5 picks and give Cincy a 58.3% chance of coming out on top and extending its winning streak to three.
And if Burrow and the Bengals can get by the underdog Eagles, they can join the rest of the living in the playoff picture. If not, they might be left for dead.
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