A few weeks ago, we checked in with the 2024 draft class, and we found some encouraging trends and performances into what had been viewed as a potentially disastrous crop of rookies.
Why were scouts so down on last year’s class? It’s likely a variety of reasons, but it didn’t help that it was preceded by one of the most hyped draft classes in history.
Let’s take a look at how the “historic” 2023 draft class is faring, starting with this really tall French guy you may have heard of.
If you haven’t bought in already, it’s way too late: Victor Wembanyama
We got our son, Andrew, a copy of The Basketball 100, the encyclopedic tomb compiled by David Aldridge and John Hollinger that lists/ranks the best players of all time. Andrew loves basketball and he loves lists. It’s almost like Aldridge and Hollinger wrote this book specifically for him.
Yesterday, he asked me where I think Victor Wembanyama ends up in The Basketball 100. We play this game with everyone currently in the league (“I think Curry ends up somewhere between 8-15,” “Hmm, Jokic could bump Magic down a spot if Sam Presti oversaw his roster construction,” etc.), but he stumped me with Wemby.
“Honestly, I have no idea.”
Every time Wemby steps on the floor, you might see something you have never seen before. He regularly posts a stat line that starts with the words “the first player ever to” or “the youngest player ever to.” He leads the NBA in blocked shots by a wide margin, and I don’t expect there to be another season in which he doesn’t lead the NBA in blocks by a wide margin. After a cold-shooting November, Wemby has found his footing offensively and is now a dynamic three-level scorer.
The Spurs are surrounding him with the right pieces. The sky is the limit. Health permitting, I don’t see any way he doesn’t end up in that “best ever” conversation. Does it seem early to talk like that? Maybe. He turns 21 this week. However, imagine what he’ll be like when he’s 25, when he adds more core/lower body strength. Once he can dig into his spots on the block and shrug people off at the elbows, there will be no stopping him.
Sell: Jaime Jaquez Jr.
What’s going on here?
Last year, Jaquez was one of my favorite rookies. He dropped into Miami’s lap as a ready-made NBA power forward and challenged for a spot on many Rookie of the Year ballots. He ended up cruising into an All-Rookie First Team spot, but he wasn’t quite as good at the end of the season as he was the first couple months.
Now, the best thing we’ve seen from Jaquez this year is his Adam Driver impression.
He’s down to 8.6 points per game on sub-optimal efficiency (41.6% FG, 25.5% 3PT). He entered the league as an older rookie (turns 24 on Feb. 18), so we don’t have a lot of untapped upside left to go. He’s undersized and offers next to no rim protection, so unless he’s contributing efficient offense, it’s hard to see where Jaquez fits into this Heat squad.
I’m not calling Jaquez a lost cause by any means, but it’s possible the first two months of his NBA career will be his best two months.
Tentative buy: Scoot Henderson
If we’re judging Scoot’s production based off his pre-draft hype, it’s still nowhere close to expectations. To be fair, though, hardly anyone could live up to those impossible standards.
After a disappointing and, at times, discouraging rookie season where he played for a 61-loss team, projecting Henderson’s NBA future became a murky and confusing task. It’s way too early to declare him a bust. Point guards take the longest to develop, particularly those stuck in perpetually losing situations (just ask his current head coach). But the shooting was worse than even the biggest Scoot skeptic could predict, and his feel for the game just wasn’t there. The game appeared to be moving too fast for him, and he responded by trying to speed up alongside it, turning the ball over constantly in the process.
But the last couple weeks have been extremely encouraging for Scoot supporters. The turnovers are down, the shooting is better (not great, but better), the playmaking is taking shape, and the defensive intensity is dialed up.
Henderson is clearly more comfortable with the ball in his hands, so surrounding him with lights-out shooters (Shaedon Sharpe), heady secondary playmakers (Deni Avdija), and behemoth rim protectors (Donovan Clingan) makes sense as a blueprint. Henderson’s brilliant game winner on Dec. 26 against Utah carried strong Rajon Rondo energy – in fact, my son’s basketball skills work includes a drill called the Rondo that looks exactly like Scoot’s game winner.
It’s not all roses in Portland yet (look no further than this week’s stinker against Philly), but Henderson’s overall progress is trending upward – great signs after such a rough start to his career.
Your guess is as good as mine: Keyonte George, Gradey Dick
In today’s NBA, even the worst offenses routinely score more than 100 points per game. The Washington Wizards rank dead last in offensive efficiency this year, but their number (104.7) would’ve been within sniffing distance of the top 20 as recently as 10 years ago.
So, when young players on bad teams rack up impressive scoring averages, you must look beyond the box score and judge whether it looks like winning basketball or if it nothing more than empty-calorie scoring.
George takes roughly the same number of shots for Utah as Lauri Markkanen. That seems odd, given his 39/35 shooting splits, but at 15.8 points per game, he ranks fifth among all second-year players in scoring. What I like best about George’s game is the 5.7 assists per contest, which tells me this 6-4 guard can bounce between either guard spot on a functional NBA roster contending for a playoff spot. He turns the ball over a lot, but I would expect that number to tick down if he played alongside a steady-handed point guard. He doesn’t really rebound or defend, so perhaps his ideal role would be as a flame-throwing bench scorer who can make plays – think if Malik Monk or Jordan Clarkson could/would pass.
As for Dick (let’s all be adults here), he has emerged as a serious scorer with much more off-the-dribble spice than most scouts expected coming out of Kansas. Dick averages nearly 18 points a contest on 42/35/89 shooting splits. I expect that 3-point number to settle around 40 on a team with better spacing than this awful Raptors squad. Despite the team going 0-for-December, Dick scored in double figures in all but two of those games. If his 3-pointer starts to fall as often as I expect it to, his dribble-drive ability gives his overall game much more dimension.
If you’re selling, let me make you an offer: Brandon Miller, Toumani Camara
The Charlotte Hornets do not play serious basketball.
Even though the team’s star player, LaMelo Ball, is challenging for the individual scoring title, the Hornets rank above only the Pelicans and Wizards in offensive efficiency. That is embarrassing. So much of this squad seems to be built around the idea of “let LaMelo do whatever he wants so our play-by-play guy can lose his mind on the broadcast and create a viral social media clip.” That philosophy has led to yet another year in the lottery.
Meanwhile, Brandon Miller is playing actual basketball and hardly anyone notices. Miller averages just over 21 points per game on 40/35/90 splits and solid secondary playmaking skills. Throw in his already above-average defensive ability and I see no reason why he can’t evolve into this generation’s Paul George – as long as he ends up on a serious basketball team.
As for Camara, he is the type of rangy wing who makes the type of plays that any contending team needs, except he makes them in Portland. If the aforementioned blueprint ends up coming to fruition for the Blazers, Camara will be an essential part of any type of turn toward playoff relevance. His box scores won’t wow you, but all you need to do is watch any five-minute burst of Camara on the floor to see that this is a serious basketball player.
There’s something here, but I’m not sure what, exactly: Bilal Coulibaly
Don’t look now, but there might be a diamond emerging from the permanent rough that is the Washington Wizards.
The Wizards are doing the right thing here – if we’re going to lose (and lose big!), why not let Coulibaly learn on the job? The 3-point shooting isn’t there yet (29.7%), but he’s taking four per game and he’s getting more and more comfortable letting it fly. He’s increased his FT% from 70 as a rookie to nearly 80 this year. He’s flashing some emerging playmaking skills and flying in for thunderous dunks on the wing.
Coulibaly is still raw, but there is a real basketball player here. And he doesn’t turn 21 until July 26.
OKC has the market cornered: Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace
This is ridiculous.
Oklahoma City is loaded. Holmgren’s hip injury 10 games into the season would derail just about any other team. He was averaging 16 points per game on extremely high efficiency for a big man (50/38/78) and provided elite rim protection on a team that was already terrifying defensively. But OKC hasn’t missed a beat, inserting a now-healthy Isaiah Hartenstein into the starting lineup and ripping off win after win. When Chet comes back, watch out. Holmgren fits in seamlessly with this juggernaut and will only prove to be more valuable once OKC enters the postseason. I love the idea of how Hartenstein and Holmgren will complement each other against bigger opponents.
As for Wallace, it’s not fair that a team with this many perimeter pitbulls can just throw him out there for 25 minutes per game. He ranks third on the Thunder in steals per game behind SGA and Jalen Williams at 1.7, but that still puts him tied for seventh in the entire NBA.
Sam Presti is so good at this.
