The main question is whether Ireland can go back-to-back-to-back? Will parity emerge? Or is France poised to take the crown they last held in 2022, evoking the glory days of the early 2000s?
Have Ireland Peaked Again?
Andy Farrell’s men conceded 55 fewer points than the next stingiest team in last year’s Six Nations (surprisingly Scotland) and scored six more tries than France en route to a repeat championship.
The blot in the book was the angst of a dropped match to England; begorrah!
Young enforcer Joe McCarthy, James ‘the Boot’ Lowe, tough guy Bundee Aki, and Jamison Gibson-Park (deprived of his usual one-on-one duel with Antoine Dupont) were Ireland’s Players of the Matches they won.
These four were joined by homegrown Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Tadgh Beirne, and Caelan Doris in the official Team of the Championship, spurring talk of ‘Irish and just a bit of British Lions’ which only grew louder after the monumental series-splitting win in Durban.
However, a tough loss to the All Blacks and two squeaky wins over Argentina and Australia, who easily soaked up the attack devoid of Mike Catt’s sure hand, combined with Farrell’s sabbatical, have combined to add boggy doubt to a three-peat.
Rome , Italy – 21 January 2025; Ireland captain Caelan Doris, right, in the company of captains and vice captains of the other nations during the launch of the Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship at Spazio Field in Rome, Italy. (Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
Ireland start with a revenge round (a theme which did not suit them in November against New Zealand): hosting England to Dublin in a match that will set the tone for both sides indelibly.
Next, they take on Scotland at cold Murrayfield. Lose both matches (refereed by Kiwis) and they will surely have lost their crown already.
A holiday in Cardiff in round three after a fortnight break prepares Ireland to welcome France (with Dupont and his aura) in what is surely a pivotal round four, before the men in green bank a bonus point win in Rome.
This is a front-loaded tournament for the world’s number two team. Do they retain the northern crown or begin to wane?
Were the cracks of November merely tiny wrinkles of finding Johnny Sexton’s successor (a triad was tested in 2024 with Sam Prendergast seeming to rise to the top) or is the possession-heavy style outmoded in the wake of escort bans, a crackdown on NFL-style blocking decoys, and the unintended premium on speed and depth with each misguided law variation?
In last year’s competition, Ireland used a tight attack shape the least (12.2% of the time, according to Opta) choosing the middle zone the most of all teams (France being the polar opposite) on carry but wide movement via pass or kick at the highest rate (again, France the least).
To put it more starkly, big France stayed within ten metres of the start of their attack almost 55% of the time (the most) whilst elusive Ireland went outside ten metres the most (over 53% of the time), by far the most successful at getting the ball to their second receiver (almost 35% of the time) and twice as likely to make a third pass as France (14.7% to 7.4%).
Since Ireland does not crunch carriers in the tackle (only Wales made fewer dominant tackles, which often lead to turnovers) they must keep the ball alive longer than quick-strike France and England.
In the wake of changes in the shape of the game (done to cut down time but counter-intuitively rewarding kick-chase experts and the power of teams like the Springboks, All Blacks, and France) is Ireland vulnerable not just to France, but also Scotland and England?
Andy Farrell has stepped away from the Ireland head coaching role for the Six Nations campaign as he concentrates on leading the Lions to victory in Australia. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
A shift at unbeaten Leinster (where ten of Ireland’s 13 centrally contracted players play) to an attack-from-defense approach is underway. South African defensive guru Jacques Nienaber has reshaped how the skillful boys from Dublin schools approach the game, allowing them to win without having to score four tries and create many line breaks from 62 turnovers won in the URC, the second-most metres kicked out of hand (7,289 metres from 239 kicks), no red cards, and persistent counter-rucking.
If the national team is to make a similar shift, not only will a clearer choice need to be made at ten between lanky Prendergast or tough 19-cap Munsterman Jack Crowley or the hero of Durban, Ciaran Frawley; the pack bench must harden up and get younger.
When I sat in the Aviva in November, I felt a communal groan around me as the Irish ‘bomb squad’ consisted of 37-year-old Cian Healy, gray-haired Peter O’Mahony and 120-cap Connor Murray, bolstered by a slowing 84-cap Ulsterman Iain Henderson.
The good news is with Farrell away, and Simon Easterby not burdened by the weight of expectation, youngsters like hooker Gus McCarthy (21), prop Tom Clarkson (24), locks Ryan Baird (25) and Cormac Izuchukwu (24), and Cian Prendergast (24) may get more than a cameo.
Former Irish hooker and pundit Bernard Jackman observes: “The Irish project is a raging success. When you take out World Cups.”
Irish playwright and rugby writer Pat McCarry told me: “As much as I wish he was wrong, ‘Birch’ is on the money. Ireland have now been playing in that rarefied air for the past decade and have enjoyed unprecedented success in the Six Nations, and on summer tours to the Southern Hemisphere. Retaining our Six Nations title repaired some of the latest World Cup damage, but we saw from defeats to England, South Africa and, most disappointingly, at home to New Zealand that Ireland can be rumbled by a dialed-in and aggressive opponent. Their big questions, going into the Six Nations revolve around their shaky lineout, finding consistent bench impact and who starts at 10.”
This is the most successful sports team, in any code, of Irish history. Whilst their fan base will want to remain in the top two ranking, keep the Six Nations trophy, and gain vengeance on England, they will surely see the larger picture of not fading again in the World Cup due to timidity in between.
Ireland enters the Six Nations with several questions hanging over their head. (Photo By Sam Barnes/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
First job for Ireland is to improve on their one card a game rate in 2024. Ireland may struggle a bit in the scrums against Scotland and France but will tend to win the breakdown. In the back three, they begin to look a bit slow compared to the French and Scottish fliers.
This may be the year Ireland hands over the northern torch to the French juggernaut.
Will France Finally Play to their Potential?
France has punched below their very heavy weight.
How?
Led by the best scrumhalf in their long history of wonderful halfbacks, often spoken of in hushed and reverent tones as the best rugby player of all time by some, but at the very least, one of the best in France ever, France failed to win a home World Cup with all stars aligned or even get to a final, a feat they managed away from home three times.
The two French professional leagues are the top two funded competitions in the world. The broadcast deals are the envy of all other rugby countries. Each weekend, during the long Top 14 season, French fans can watch players like Levani Botia, Jack Willis, Blair Kinghorn, Pete Samu, Owen Farrell, and half of Argentina’s Test team in perfectly sized stadia, as trumpets play, in southwestern towns which revere rugby above any other sport.
The success of the club game obscures the mediocrity of what Fabien Galthie, a hero of the 1999 upset of New Zealand in a semifinal, has achieved since 2019 compared to Farrell and Rassie Erasmus.
Galthie’s French team has a winning record against every nation except South Africa, but they have not had the killer instinct in tournaments except the 2022 Six Nations.
France has a stupendous budget, developing superlative players around Dupont like Gregory Alldritt, Charles Ollivon, Francois Cros, Gaël Fickou, Cyril Baille, Peato Mauvaka, Romain Ntamack, Thomas Ramos and Damien Penaud, with size, speed, power, pace, precision and a bare trophy cabinet.
Their age profile, except in the midfield, fits perfectly into the World Cup cycle. The time is now.
Rome , Italy – 21 January 2025; France head coach Fabien Galthie, right and captain Antoine Dupont during the launch of the Guinness Six Nations Rugby Championship at Spazio Field in Rome, Italy. (Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
Surely this is their year in the Six Nations and in their autumn, even if they disappoint in their choice to tour New Zealand in July as if it is friendly in a football sense.
Mauvaka is one of the world’s best hookers, they have props the size of mountains, locks the size of continents, a brilliant back row, speed at the wing, quality at the back and lest we forget, a fairly decent number nine!
Winning the tournament is the only acceptable response to the sadness of 2023 and doldrums of 2024. If not, it would seem those results are in fact the true measure of the team.
The French have the deepest talent at prop, hooker, blindside, scrumhalf, flyhalf, wing and fullback.
This is their time.
Is England the Great Spoiler?
The Sweet Chariot has run off the road into a ditch, after budget scandals, a series of bitter losses, and a coach exodus, but is still made of hard stuff, can still run fast if repaired, and is not easy to stop.
The Six Nations might come as more of a blessing to Steve Borthwick than any other coach: a win in the first round and everything will look fixed, just as it did last time England faced Ireland. Since that famous 23-22 win, England has only beaten Japan (twice) but lost six times, including five straight.
The necessary footnote, however, is those six losses were half at the hands of an excellent All Blacks team, including two in New Zealand by a total of eight points, a two-point heartbreaker in France, and a no-shame defeat by South Africa. Every single one of those, if won by England, would have likely shaped the year as positive when coupled with the upset over Ireland. The defeat at home by the Wallabies was the only one which should not have happened.
Thus, England is a dangerous team this year. They are five or so kicks away from being right with France.
England head coach Steve Borthwick appointed Maro Itoje as his new captain following a series of narrow defeats in 2024. (Photo By Ramsey Cardy/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
A corps of veterans (Jamie George, Maro Itoje, Ellis Genge, Tom Curry, Marcus Smith) are fighting for Lions spots, bolstered by a wave of young talent: Fin Baxter, Ollie Lawrence, Ollie Sleightholme, Fin Smith, Chandler Cunningham-South, Jack van Poortvliet, Tommy Freeman, Theo Dan, Asher Opoku-Fordjour, George Martin and then along comes storming Tom Willis for Saracens, bashing down barn doors.
England is also comfortable being the ‘villains.’ Their DNA was formed on the basis of being every other team’s favourite win from the time rugby began.
Whilst they would surely not loathe the love of cranberry-chino soft-loafer half-puff Twickenham Man the English embrace the enmity of the opposition crowd and seem to hang in the fight for fun.
Closing the deal may be as simple as selection: who is the Wilkinsonian field general, once and for all, during this World Cup cycle? Is it Marcus or Fin Smith; is George Ford’s time over?
In the 2024 Six Nations, England was the best gainline team, committing multiple tacklers the most, evading tackles the easiest, had the best lineout, won the most (38.1%) scrums via penalty, had the most dominant tackles (10.6% of all tackles were dominant, twice as powerful as Ireland) and yet finished 13-13 on tries made and given for a dreary minus-5 point difference and third place again.
If the top tier is Ireland versus France, the next has been clearly England and Scotland. Is that who England has become? A mid-range Six Nations team with The Rugby Championship quartet above them? Surely not in their own minds.
The goal for England this year surely must be to finish at least second and that starts with round one at the Aviva in Dublin, followed by le Crunch in London. Imagine the hyped hysteria if those are wins?
Is Scotland for Real?
Another year, another hopeful feeling.
Gregor Townsend has coached Scotland for 71 Tests, 28 more than the second-longest coach’s tenure (Ian McGeechan from 1988 to 1993). Toonie is set to go from Cup to Cup to Cup, but below the win rate of McGeechan (almost 58%) and just above Blues coach Vern Cotter (53% over 36 Tests). Viewed in that lens, there is nothing wrong with retaining Townsend and his right-hand man Steve Tandy (defence) and giving South Island attack coach Brad Mooar more rope.
However, coaching requires new stories, animating tales and proverbs, and the feeling is that whilst Scotland is fully capable of upsetting Ireland at Murrayfield, the Autumn Nations series shows that when shove comes to shove (i.e. the Springboks pushing the Scots into oblivion) a power team like France will dominate them, especially late in the game.
Is it a question of manpower or scheme?
Finn Russell remains the main man for Scotland but the pressure is building on Gregor Townsend’s men not to waste the moment. (Photo by Stu Forster/Getty Images)
Having shorn themselves of a toxic skipper, the team is now led by 82-cap Finn Russell and rising Victorian Sione Tuipulotu (the named captain), who find ways to feed strike runners (and Lions candidates) Duhan van der Merwe, Huw Jones, Darcy Graham and Blair Kinghorn, along with forward stalwarts like Zander Fagerson (70 caps at age 28), Jamie Ritchie (28 years old with 54 caps), New South Welshman Jack Dempsey (22 caps), converted Saffa cult hero and whisky entrepreneur Pierre Schoeman (a shout for Lions loosehead) and young star Rory Darge of Glasgow.
This is a happy team, with good cohesion, and is led by likable men.
With that and all the talent, where is the disconnect?
Grant Gilchrist and Scott Cummings have over a hundred caps if combined, but till now, the Gray brothers have been missing. Enter Jonny, who may be the key to the Scottish campaign. He is a high work rate player but with more skill than the incumbents and 77 caps. In a compressed five-match tournament the locking corps tends to have an outsized effect on outcomes, given workload, injury, set piece, ruck, and gainline.
Scotland has a dream schedule with Italy coming to Murrayfield first, Ireland having to come to cold Scotland in round two before their new coach has gelled, their favourite foe England after a break, Wales to recover, and a closer in the last match of the competition in France when the hosts can lose the plot.
If not now, when?
Is Wales an Endangered Rugby Dragon?
Wales has never been lower than now.
Ranked outside the top ten for the first time, racked by scandal, beset by uncertain finances, stuck with a coach who does not appear to know how to talk to the newest generation of players and press, and cloaked in doom, the 28-time winners Welsh are deadlocked in wooden spoon races with Italy.
To put that in context, Italy has only ever beaten Wales four times in 33 attempts, but their round 2 clash in Rome is the key game of the tournament for both.
In fact, Wales is ahead of France in their head-to-head (51-3-50) and holds the upper hand against Ireland and Scotland. Only England in the Six Nations has a winning record versus Wales.
How the mighty have fallen. But from smouldering ashes great forests bloom.
Warren Gatland’s 2024 campaign could not have panned out worse. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
Only two players in the current Welsh squad have fifty or more caps (Tomos Williams and Aaron Wainwright) and of those, only one has reached thirty years of age. Young guns like the extraordinary hooker Dewi Lake (25), hard nut flanker Jac Morgan (24), supernaturally athletic Christ Tshiunza (22), and still-young super jackal Tommy Reffell (25) must rise.
Oddly, elegant outside back Cam Winnett (21), long Max Llewellyn (25) and quicksilver Rio Dyer (25) were all left out by Warren Gatland, in favour of older players.
At the root of the troubles for this young team is defensive frailty. Wales scored as many tries as France in the 2024 tournament but leaked the most (16) en route to no wins.
When autumn came, it had not improved. As they stacked 334 caps against 946 Springbok caps, the youngsters missed 46 tackles whilst making more than 200, whilst the Boks ran over a kilometre to make a whopping 15 breaks.
The scale of the rebuild is daunting.
In club rugby, bright spots have been Williams’ ten try involvements, Reffell’s six steals for Leicester Tigers, the Scarlets’ URC-leading scrum, the Ospreys’ brilliant lineout, Cardiff’s 22 maul metres a game, and how Welsh clubs have used set piece to score first phase tries.
But the first job is just to not lose to Italy, for Gats’ sake.
Potestne decima Italia manere? (Can Italy Stay Top Ten)?
Italy reached its highest World Rugby ranking in 2024 (number eight) but slid to tenth as the Wallabies resumed regular service. Can they keep that spot?
So too for Italy: round two beckons. A date with Wales.
Italy’s rugby history is bound more with the Gauls than the Celts and Saxons: they have played France 49 times, the most of any foe. Having only won three times against Les Bleus they are accustomed to futility.
They are the Sixth Nation: only twice finishing fourth, almost always last (18 of 24 times), with fewer wins than years competed and a wild stat of minus-19 points per game.
Ange Capuozzo remains Italy’s biggest attacking threat. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
The reason 2024 began so brightly was Italy was clear of Wales: a full 7 log points better (with only one bonus point), two wins better (and a draw with France), and favoured in their match.
It was a bit overblown. Warren Gatland had gone full rebuild, Italy scored only as many points (92) as Wales and the fewest tries (9) in the competition, and much of the energy came from a few players, not all.
Tommaso Menoncello and Ignacio Brex were phenomenal, but after the Six Nations, Italy lost to Samoa by eight points, were mauled by Argentina at home by 32 points, barely nipped the ‘Seventh Nation’ (Georgia) in November and looked like ‘brave losers’ to the All Blacks.
So, once again, look for individuals like loosehead Danilo Fischetti or an outside back to rise and maybe even be named player of several matches or even the tournament or nominated for World Rugby’s short list, but it seems very much as if Italy will do well to just beat Wales.
Predicted finish:
1. France
2. Ireland
3. England
4. Scotland
5. Wales
6. Italy
