We fired up the Opta supercomputer to work out how the draw for the Europa League knockout stages changed the chances of each side winning the competition.
The Europa League draw is complete, and because of the new format, we now know the precise possible opponents for each team in every round all the way to the final.
Here is the draw for the round of 16, as well as the bracket for the quarter-finals, semi-finals and final, with each team’s path to winning the Europa League mapped out.
Europa League Last-16 Draw
- Viktoria Plzen vs Lazio
- Bodø/Glimt vs Olympiakos
- Ajax vs Eintracht Frankfurt
- AZ Alkmaar vs Tottenham
- Roma vs Athletic Bilbao
- Fenerbahce vs Rangers
- FCSB vs Lyon
- Real Sociedad vs Man Utd
We are now able to say, with the help of the Opta supercomputer, exactly what each team’s chances are of winning the competition. We have also compared these numbers to how they looked before the draw to work out which teams have been handed the toughest and easiest routes to glory.
After finishing top of the league phase of the competition, Lazio were favourites to win the Europa League heading into the knockout stage draw, given a 16.8% chance of glory according to the Opta supercomputer.
After being drawn to face Viktoria Plzen in the round of 16 and then one of Bodø/Glimt or Olympiakos in the quarters, their chances have increased to 20.0% – the biggest increase (+3.2 percentage points) of any team in the competition. That boost means they now have a one-in-five chance of winning the Europa League this season according to the Opta supercomputer.
They could face a potential stumbling block in the semis, where they are most likely to face Tottenham, another of the competition’s favourites.
Spurs are enduring a disappointing season, though, and stumbled through the league phase. They ended it with a 12.9% chance of winning the whole competition, making them third favourites. Having been drawn to face AZ Alkmaar, whom they beat 1-0 in the league phase, and then Ajax or Eintracht Frankfurt in the quarters, their chances have barely changed. They are now joint-second favourites, at 13.2%.
Athletic Club have seen their hopes hit hardest, with their pre-draw chances of winning the Europa League of 16.5% dropping to 13.2%, level with Tottenham. Athletic are deemed to have been given a unfavourable draw, facing Roma – fourth favourites to win the whole thing – in the round of 16. If they get past them, Rangers or Fenerbahce await in the quarter-finals and then – most likely – Manchester United in the semis.
United are the fifth favourites to win the competition and will face Real Sociedad in the last 16. The chances of Ruben Amorim’s men have gone down slightly from 7.9% to 7.3%.
Fourteen of the 16 teams involved saw their title hopes remain within 1.0 percentage points of their pre-draw chances, suggesting the draw has had little impact on where the trophy will end up.
Lazio are the big winners, though, now huge favourites to win the Europa League.
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