Ahead of the final round of league phase matches in the UEFA Europa League, things could be about to get complicated. We can hopefully shed some light on the situation…
In one sense, UEFA’s decision to reformat all of its major club competitions to begin with a single 36-team league phase made them all much simpler. What could be more intuitive and straightforward to decipher than one table with each team clearly ranked by performance?
Well, when it comes to trying to get your head around the various permutations ahead of the final round of league-phase matches, actually it could be quite a lot simpler.
Of the 36 teams who began the 2024-25 Europa League, we’ll only lose 12 at this stage of the competition. While the top eight go straight into the last 16, those finishing between ninth and 24th head into a play-off round for the right to progress, the winners then filling the remainder of the last-16 spots.
But with so many teams to consider and everyone in the same table, it doesn’t take much to climb up or slide down the ladder. It makes the picture somewhat murky.
Hopefully, however, we can provide some clarity. We’ll outline who needs what in their final league phase match, with the Opta supercomputer telling us each team’s chances of going through.
Matchday 8 Fixtures
- Ajax (16th) vs Galatasaray (9th)
- Athletic Bilbao (3rd) vs Viktoria Plzen (11th)
- Dinamo Kiev (36th) vs Rigas (30th)
- Midtjylland (19th) vs Fenerbahce (23rd)
- Twente (26th) vs Besiktas (24th)
- FCSB (8th) vs Manchester United (4th)
- Ferencváros (22nd) vs AZ (14th)
- Lyon (5th) vs Ludogorets (33rd)
- Maccabi Tel-Aviv (29th) vs Porto (25th)
- Nice (35th) vs Bodø/Glimt (10th)
- Olympiakos (12th) vs Qarabag (34th)
- Rangers (13th) vs Union Saint-Gilloise (15th)
- Real Sociedad (18th) vs PAOK (17th)
- Roma (21st) vs Eintracht Frankfurt (2nd)
- Anderlecht (7th) vs Hoffenheim (28th)
- Slavia Prague (31st) vs Malmö (32nd)
- Braga (27th) vs Lazio (1st)
- Tottenham (6th) vs Elfsborg (20th)
The Top Two
Barring something of a miracle, Lazio will head into the last 16 as league phase winners. The Serie A side have won six of their seven matches, dropping just two points, and head into Matchday 8 with a three-point cushion that’s boosted by a very healthy +13 goal difference.
Athletic Club and Eintracht Frankfurt are the only sides who can catch them, but not only would they need to win and hope Lazio lose, they’d also require a seven-goal swing as both have a goal difference of +6.
As such, the Opta supercomputer gives Lazio a 99.5% hold on top spot.
But does it even matter where you finish as long as you get into the top eight? Well, UEFA want us to believe that it does matter.
The format for the knockouts – at least initially in the play-offs and last 16 – is also rather different to what it was before in the Europa League as it limits your potential opponents considerably.
So, where you finish in the table will directly impact who you go on to face. For example: we know the teams who finish 15th and 16th will meet 17th or 18th in the play-offs, and then the winners of those ties will go up against the teams who finished first and second in the last 16. It’s also worth noting that the top two wouldn’t be able to meet until the final.
If you come first, the lowest-ranked team you could possibly face in the last 16 is 18th; if you finish eighth, you could face 24th, the lowest-ranked side of those who qualified, or you might end up tussling with the side who came ninth.
The point is, then, the higher you finish in the top eight, the more ‘middling’ your last-16 opponents are likely to be. The lower in the top eight you finish, there’s a broader range in ability of opposition you could come up against – though that does assume the table accurately reflects team strength, and that’s certainly not a given.
Are Man Utd and Tottenham Through Already?
The Premier League looks likely to be the only competition with two representatives in the top eight. Tottenham and Manchester United were each victorious on Thursday, though in similarly unconvincing fashion.
While neither have made absolutely sure of their top-eight spots, both teams know the worst they’ll get now is a place in the knockout play-offs.
Of course, avoiding two additional games would be reward enough, and the Opta supercomputer suggests it’s very unlikely either will ultimately drop out of the top eight.
Tottenham – who face 20th-placed Elfsborg next – are given a 92.6% likelihood of going straight into the last 16 following their 3-2 win over Hoffenheim. That makes them fourth likeliest to go through after Lazio, Athletic and Frankfurt.
There are nine teams within three points of Ange Postecoglou’s men, but their projection figures will be heavily influenced by them being huge favourites to beat Elfsborg at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
United’s dramatic late win over Rangers elevated them to fourth in the table, though the fact they face FCSB – who are only a point below them in eighth – next week has presumably impacted their top-eight finish probability slightly.
They take one of the eight automatic last-16 qualification spots in 89.8% of the simulations. If they were to lose and five of the eight teams directly below them were to win, United could drop out of the top eight (it would come down to goal difference for Plzen and Olympiakos).
Similarly, there’d still be a chance of them dropping out of the top eight if they drew, but that would require Lyon, Tottenham, Anderlecht, Galatasaray and Bodø/Glimt all winning (the latter by two goals).
Realistically, then, United and Spurs look pretty safe in the top eight.
The Rest of Top Eight
Lyon, Anderlecht and FCSB are the other sides currently filling the top eight places heading into the final matchday. All three are locked on 14 points with Tottenham.
Of course, the Opta supercomputer isn’t particularly optimistic about FCSB staying where they are (or climbing the table) given they go up against Man Utd next week. They’re deemed the likeliest to drop out of the top eight, only qualifying for the last 16 automatically in 31.2% of the simulations.
Anderlecht are given a 71.6% probability of a top-eight finish, no doubt helped by the fact they host an out-of-form Hoffenheim – who are staring at likely elimination – next week.
Lyon, however, are expected to sail into the last 16. They finished in the top eight in 91.4% of the latest simulations, with Ludogorets (33rd) not considered a huge threat to them ahead of their meeting at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
All three clubs know a victory will assure them of a place in the top eight; anything less and their fate is in the hands of others.
Top-Eight Hopefuls
If those in the bottom half of the top eight slip up, there are several teams waiting to pounce.
Essentially, any team with at least 11 points still has at worst a slim chance of sneaking into the top eight.
AZ (1.6%), Union SG (2.1%) and Rangers (8.8%) are all on 11 points and are therefore the biggest outsiders.
What’s most interesting here is that Union SG and Rangers will tussle at Ibrox next week. Philippe Clement’s side have a solid +5 goal difference as well, meaning they look most primed to get themselves into contention out of the three on 11 points.
Rangers would still need plenty of help from elsewhere even if they do win, though, as there are four other clubs at least a point closer to the top eight than them.
Olympiakos are deemed by the supercomputer as having the biggest chance of breaking into the top eight (39.9%) despite trailing ninth-placed Galatasaray (37.6%) by a point. That’ll be partly because the Turkish club are away to Ajax next week, while Olympiakos host 34th-placed Qarabag.
Viktoria Plzen are ahead of Olympiakos on goals scored but have just a 10.6% likelihood of getting into the top eight according to the supercomputer. That figure becomes more understandable when you consider they are away to Athletic on Matchday 8.
They’d need to beat Ernesto Valverde’s men and have several other results go their way.
Bodø/Glimt are seen as slightly more likely to get into the top eight (23.6%). They trail Galatasaray on goal difference and probably count their chances of progress a fair bit higher than 23.6% considering they’re second in line to pounce if the likes of FCSB and Anderlecht slip up.
Nevertheless, they are away to Nice next Thursday. While the French side have been appalling in the Europa League, losing five of their seven games and winning none to find themselves second-bottom and already eliminated, they are as high as fifth in Ligue 1 and therefore shouldn’t be underestimated.
Potential High-Profile Casualties
Seven teams are already out, and another two – Maccabi Tel-Aviv and Hoffenheim – are as good as gone as they need MD 8 victories to be accompanied by a host of other results helping them out.
While everyone 18th and up are deemed to have at least a 99.9% likelihood of getting no worse than a play-off spot, there’s still plenty to play for in the lower echelons of the top 24, and there’s some big names battling away down there.
As things stand, Portuguese giants Porto are heading out. They’ve only eight points and occupy 25th place – if that’s where they are this time next week, they’ll be eliminated.
It’s not that they have no hope, however. It wouldn’t be a massive surprise if they beat Maccabi Tel-Aviv, and then they’d just need one of the 12 teams above them to lose. Therefore, the Opta supercomputer still gives them a 62.2% chance of getting through.
In fact, they could even get through with a draw if one of Besiktas, Fenerbache, Ferencváros or Roma lose. Those four all have nine points, and Roma are the only ones with a better goal difference (+2) than Porto.
Besiktas are seen as the likeliest of that bunch to falter. Next week, they’re away to Twente, who themselves could still get into the top 24 (59.5%), with Besiktas – now managed by Ole Gunnar Solskjaer – only doing enough to avoid elimination in 37.1% of the simulations. They aren’t helped by their goal difference of -4, but as is the case with everyone else in the top 24, win and they’re safe.
Fenerbache (79%) and Roma (89.3%) would also be high-profile casualties, though both are seen as far more likely to stave off elimination when they face Midtyjlland and Frankfurt respectively next Thursday.
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