The Opta supercomputer is almost undecided for Saturday’s Premier League clash at Goodison Park. Here’s our Everton vs Fulham prediction and preview.
Everton vs Fulham Stats: The Key Insights
- There is just 0.6% separating these two in the eyes of the Opta supercomputer, with Fulham very slight favourites.
- Marco Silva has won his last two away games against former club Everton in the Premier League.
- The Toffees have kept six clean sheets in their last seven top-flight games in the month of October, including both games this season.
Everton are looking to build on a promising run of results when they welcome Fulham to Goodison Park for the late Premier League kick-off on Saturday.
Sean Dyche’s side made a dismal start to the season as they lost their first four games, but there has been cause for optimism since, going unbeaten in their last four, and they scooped up their second win with a routine 2-0 victory away at Ipswich Town last time out.
Only once before under Dyche have the Toffees gone five without defeat, doing so in April and May this year as the former Burnley boss guided them away from the relegation zone.
But October is when Everton tend to hit their stride in the Premier League – they have kept six clean sheets in their last seven such games (W4 D2 L1), including both games so far this season.
In fact, since 2022-23, they have averaged 0.75 points per game in August and September (20 games played) compared to 1.55 points per game in October (11 games played).
And Everton pose a formidable threat from set-pieces too, with only Arsenal (33) scoring more goals than their 27 (excluding penalties).
That will surely give Marco Silva something to think about after they conceded cheaply from a corner in their 3-1 defeat to Aston Villa last weekend.
It was a second consecutive defeat for the Cottagers, albeit they came against two of last season’s top four, having also faced champions Manchester City.
They scored the first goal in both of those games, as they have in each of their last five Premier League outings. Only six teams have lost three in a row after opening the scoring, most recently Sheffield United in April and May last season.
But Fulham will feel confident about getting a win from their trip to Merseyside with Silva in the dugout against his former club, whom he managed 53 times between August 2018 and December 2019.
He has won each of his last two Premier League away games against Everton and is looking to become just the second manager in the competition’s history to win away at his former club more than twice in a row after Harry Redknapp (five in a row at West Ham between 2006 and 2009).
They also have a forward in fine form, as Raúl Jiménez has scored or assisted in each of his last five Premier League appearances (four goals, one assist). If he registers a goal involvement against Everton, the Portuguese striker will become the first Fulham player to do so in six consecutive games.
Everton vs Fulham Head-to-Head
While Everton have won six of their last nine matches at Goodison Park (D1 L2), their recent home record against Fulham does not make for kind reading.
They have lost each of their last three such league matches, including a 1-0 defeat last season, with Bobby De Cordova-Reid scoring the winner on Matchday 1.
In fact, Fulham are on a five-match unbeaten streak against the Toffees in the Premier League, keeping four clean sheets during that run, including shutouts in each of their last two meetings.
Everton initially had the better of the encounters, going unbeaten in their first 27 home league games between 1949 and 2018 (W23 D4), winning each of the last 22 in that run.
Everton vs Fulham Prediction
Fulham are considered very slight favourites by the Opta supercomputer to come away with the three points on Saturday, winning 36.9% of the pre-match simulations.
Everton make it three wins from four in a near identical 36.3% of those scenarios, while a draw occurred 26.8% of the time.
In terms of the whole season, Everton’s current position of 16th is most likely, though they have the same chances of finishing one place higher according to the supercomputer (15.2%).
Fulham, by contrast, are predicted to be pushing to finish in the top half of the table, with a 13% chance of finishing 10th, though they are given slim chances of pushing to finish fourth at 0.6%.
Everton vs Fulham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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