We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Goodison Park with our Everton vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Will David Moyes’ side continue their resurgence?
Everton vs Manchester United Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer is predicting a tight encounter, though Everton are made slight favourites.
- Everton have won four of their last five Premier League games, more than they had in their first 20 of 2024-25.
- Manchester United have won their last two away league games against Everton.
When David Moyes replaced Sean Dyche last month, few would have predicted that, within the space of six Premier League matches, Everton would be above Manchester United in the table.
But that is precisely the case heading into Saturday’s contest at Goodison Park, with Everton now on 30 points, one better off than the Red Devils, who are in 15th as Ruben Amorim continues to struggle to get them going.
United have lost 12 of their 25 Premier League games this season (W8 D5), their most defeats from their first 25 matches of a league campaign since 1973-74 (13) – when they were last relegated from the top flight.
Indeed, United have lost eight of their last 12 Premier League games (W3 D1); since the date of the first game in this spell (4 Dec vs Arsenal), the only sides to lose more matches in the competition are the current bottom two, Leicester City (nine) and Southampton (10).
United have failed to score in 10 different Premier League games this season, with only Everton (12) – coincidentally – doing so more often. It is the joint-most games in which the Red Devils have failed to score in a single season in the competition, along with 2004-05 and 2015-16.
Only bottom side Southampton (7.9%) have a lower shot conversion rate than United in the Premier League this season, with the Red Devils’ 8.4% their lowest in a single campaign since 2004-05 (8.2%).
Overall, Amorim has taken only 14 points in the league. Moyes, on the other hand, has already taken 13 with Everton.
The Toffees go into this match as one of the league’s form sides – they have won four of their last five Premier League games (D1), more than they had in their first 20 (W3 D8 L9).
This is the latest into a season they are facing United while sitting above them in the table since their 35th game in 2013-14 (Everton fifth, Man Utd seventh). The Toffees won that and Moyes was relieved of his duties at Old Trafford just two days later.
Now back at Goodison Park, Moyes has overseen an immediate improvement for Everton. They have scored at least twice in each of their last three Premier League home games, last having a longer run between October and December 2017 (five).
The Toffees have scored 12 goals in their last five Premier League games (home and away), more than they had in their previous 16 (11).
Even more impressive is that Everton are making do without a glut of players – Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Orel Mangala, Dwight McNeil, Armando Broja, Youssef Chermiti, Seamus Coleman and Nathan Patterson have all been out injured, while Abdoulaye Doucouré missed Saturday’s win over Crystal Palace due to suspension.
With no other strikers available, Beto has stood up to be counted for Everton.
Beto has scored four goals in his last three Premier League games, as many as he had in his first 44 appearances in the competition. He is averaging a goal every 88 minutes and has a shot conversion rate of 40% under Moyes, compared to a goal every 290 minutes and a 7.4% conversion rate under Dyche.
He has scored in each of his last three Premier League appearances – the last Everton player to score in four consecutive games was Richarlison in March 2021, while the last to do so under Moyes was Mikel Arteta in April 2010.
Whether this form is sustainable is another question, but the Opta supercomputer now reckons Everton are safe, and Moyes will be wanting them to look up, not down.
Everton vs Manchester United Head-to-Head
Moyes has won his last two Premier League home games against Manchester United, beating them 1-0 and 2-0 with West Ham in May and December 2023. He also won his last home league game against the Red Devils in charge of Everton, beating them 1-0 in August 2012.
However, United do have a good recent record against Everton, and cruised to a 4-0 victory in the reverse fixture in December – Amorim’s first league win in charge.
United have won their last two away league games against Everton, winning 2-1 in October 2022 and 3-0 in November 2023. They last won three in a row at Goodison Park, where they will be playing for the final time, in September 2007, while they last kept back-to-back clean sheets at the Toffees in August 1997.
Everton have lost their last five Premier League games against United, failing to score in the last four. They last lost five consecutive league games without reply against an opponent vs Wolves between 1957 and 1960.
Everton vs Manchester United Prediction
The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 data-led simulations, and this match was drawn in 28.4% of those.
Everton are the very slight favourites, with a 38.3% win probability. United, meanwhile, have a 33.3% chance of taking all three points.
Everton vs Manchester United Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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