There are already all kinds of hot takes circulating about, and we’re looking at some of those and breaking down the biggest storylines from the NBA’s first week.
Just as has been the case in every first week of the regular season in the history of the league, some serious takes have proliferated the basketball discourse early in 2024-25.
Some of those takes prove to just be a byproduct of an incredibly small sample size, while others become permanent parts of the league storyline (see Tyrese Maxey’s hot start to last season).
So let’s examine some of those headlines and try to determine what is a flash in the pan (fiction) and what is here to stay (fact).
Take: Dyson Daniels is blossoming into one of the league’s best role players.
Analysis: To win in this league, you need stars. But you also need great 3-and-D role players to flank those stars. After seeing Daniels be a non-factor on the Zion Williamson-less New Orleans Pelicans last postseason (appearing in only three of four games and averaging just 5.7 minutes per game), I had thrown in the towel on him being one of those players.
Fast forward to the start of this season, and Daniels is averaging 12.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 2.8 steals and 1.0 blocks on 56% true shooting (right around league average).
With the exception of his assists (he averaged 2.7 last season), those are all career bests. Daniels also has a career high net rating (+1.8). It isn’t atypical for defensive-first wings (Daniels was in the 93rd percentile in defensive DRIP last year) to impress folks with a strong start powered by unendurable 3-point shooting.
That’s the beauty of Daniels’ start to the 2024-25 campaign. He’s not even shooting that well from 3 (35.3%). Plus, he’s been terrible from the midrange (28.6%) – an area he usually excels at (49.3% last year). So, there is even more room for the third-year wing to grow.
Verdict: Fact
Take: JJ Redick has turned the Los Angeles Lakers into a serious contender.
Analysis: Heading into this season, many people expected the Lakers to be on their last legs. Last season, despite LeBron James and Anthony Davis only missing a combined 17 games, the Lakers could only win a single playoff game before being escorted from the dance.
Given James’ age (he turns 40 on Dec. 30) and Davis’ injury history, regression seemed inevitable. However, this largely similar roster is off to a 3-1 start, and Redick is a big reason why. It is often difficult to accurately appraise the job done by professional coaches. But one thing we can measure is their play-calling acumen by looking at their team’s success on after-timeout (ATO) plays. According to PBP Stats, the Lakers are averaging 1.42 points per possession (PPP) on plays after timeouts (which ranks fourth in the entire association). That is 0.29 PPP better than the rate they were producing at last year under Darvin Ham.
The Lakers aren’t a perfect team (they are still old and lacking in strong two-way wings/forwards), but they are certainly a much better one under Redick’s guidance.
Verdict: Fact(ish)
Take: LaMelo Ball has become one of the best scorers in basketball.
Analysis: If you take a gander at the scoring leaders, you may be pleasantly (or unpleasantly, depending on how you feel about him) surprised to see that Ball is currently third in the entire NBA with 31.7 points per game. This is particularly shocking considering that, prior to this year, Ball has never even averaged 24 points.
A big reason for Ball’s leap is that he has seen a massive spike in his free-throw rates – averaging 11.3 free-throw attempts per 100 so far (his previous career high was 7.2 per 100). Normally, leaps in free-throw shooting frequency are pretty sustainable, as they normally derive from attacks at the rim, which are much less prone to variance than 3-pointers. Plus, if you look at his drives to the rim, Ball looks much more willing to take and absorb contact.
Speaking of 3-pointers, Ball went 9 for 14 from deep against the Atlanta Hawks. This has boosted his season average to 41.7% (on 12.0 attempts per game). Ball is a good shooter, but not THAT good. His previous career high is 38.9% from downtown.
If/when that mark regresses, that will knock down his scoring average, demoting him from one of the best scorers in basketball to just a very good one.
Verdict: Fiction(ish)
Take: Tyrese Haliburton is on his way to a disappointing season.
Analysis: After making his first All-NBA Team and propelling the Indiana Pacers to their first Eastern Conference finals appearance since 2014, Haliburton has struggled mightily to begin the 2024-25 campaign. Through four games, Halliburton is averaging an abysmal 14.0 points (6.1 fewer than last year) and 5.3 assists (down 5.6) on 43.9% true shooting (down 16.6%).
The assists part is especially concerning because his potential assists this year (10.0, per NBA.com) are also way down from last year’s mark (17.8).
However, there are multiple reasons to pump the brakes on all this falling off talk. First, as was mentioned before the start of the season, Haliburton may not be 100% healthy. If true, his health may be affecting his ability to generate power in his jumpers, as we’ve seen multiple of his 3-pointers miss short (26.5% from 3 to start the season).
Speaking of his 3s, just like how players can get uncharacteristically hot from beyond the arc for short periods of time, the same thing can happen with cold streaks. Maybe that’s what’s going on with Haliburton?
As for the assists, this could be explained by the fact that Haliburton has had the ball in his hands almost 2 minutes less (4.8 minutes per game this year) than he did last year (6.4).
Verdict: Fiction
Take: The Denver Nuggets and Milwaukee Bucks are no longer contenders.
Analysis: Given that they employ two of the best players on the planet (Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo), many people projected the Nuggets and Bucks to be among the league’s heaviest hitters. However, the two teams are a combined 2-5 through seven games, leading many to believe the two powerhouses have lost their fastballs.
Fortunately, there is reason to believe that both these teams still have some life left. First, both teams are off to slow shooting starts from downtown (the Nuggets are down 5.1%, the Bucks are down 4.0%). Given that their rosters are pretty similar to the ones they had last year, the shooting is sure to come around.
The two team’s benches are also letting them down (both in the bottom 10 in scoring). This variable turning around isn’t as likely as the shooting component, but since both teams roster young players who could reasonably grow as the season unfolds, there is a chance this category flips the script for them.
To be fair, these teams are clearly not the juggernauts we’ve grown accustomed to seeing. But they are still much better than their record suggests.
Verdict: Fiction
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