We’re back with our latest batch of snap judgements following an eventful weekend of Premier League football.
The Premier League is back and that means Opta Analyst’s weekly knee-jerk reactions column is, too. Here, every Monday, we react to the weekend’s action in England’s top flight with the kind of rash takes to which a data-led website like ours probably should be giving a little more thought.
It’s just a bit of fun, but there might just be some truth to the points we’re making…
Tottenham Are Going to Win the League
Okay, this might be a bit of a stretch, but take in isolation Tottenham’s 4-0 win at the team who last year became the first in men’s football history in England to win four consecutive top-flight titles, and you surely have to consider them capable of doing something special this season.
Spurs were sensational at the Etihad Stadium on Saturday as they ended Manchester City’s 52-game unbeaten run at home across all competitions in devastating fashion. City had plenty of chances and on another day, might have been a couple of goals up by the time Spurs had even mustered a shot. But once the visitors got a foothold in the game, they were impressively assured in possession, daring without the ball, and utterly lethal in attack.
Anybody who has watched Ange Postecoglou’s Tottenham knows how good this team can be, but those same people will know that any analysis of them has to include their other, rather less impressive, results. Not least last time out in defeat at home to then-winless Ipswich Town.
They were, nevertheless, very good value for this win in Manchester. Tottenham had nine shots to City’s 23, and just 42.4% possession, but their chances were worth more expected goals (2.51) than their opponents’ (2.14). They were by far the better team against the most consistently successful team in Premier League history.
So, are they going to win the league? No, most certainly not. Are they even contenders? Unlikely. But you could forgive Spurs fans for thoroughly enjoying the biggest statement win of the Postecoglou era, and for also getting slightly ahead of themselves.
Man City Are Out of the Title Race
Pep Guardiola’s side are still second in the table, a point ahead of Arsenal, but after three consecutive defeats in the league, their season looks to be unravelling. With no prospect of Rodri returning, a genuine injury crisis unfolding, players lacking in form and confidence, no help for Erling Haaland in front of goal and a trip to Anfield up next, they don’t particularly look like Premier League winners and there isn’t much hope on the horizon either.
They’ve lost five matches in a row in all competitions. Stuart Pearce was their manager when they last went on a run this bad (back in 2006). It is entirely uncharted territory for Guardiola.
Saturday brought the heaviest home league defeat of his managerial career, and only the second four-goal loss he has suffered on home soil in any competition (also 4-0 vs Real Madrid in April 2014 with Bayern Munich).
It wasn’t quite a completely hopeless night for City. They created more than enough chances to get something from the game; the Haaland of the earlier part of the season might have had a hat-trick. Meanwhile, players like Phil Foden, Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish are too good for their current form to last much longer. Kevin De Bruyne is getting closer to a return to full fitness that can’t come soon enough.
Winners of four straight Premier League titles, City cannot be written off. They thrive when people doubt them. “I would say, please doubt us, doubt us,” Rúben Dias said after the defeat to Brighton.
But they also need to get back to their best, well, immediately. Liverpool away is next, and they won’t be up for doing Guardiola’s side any favours.
There’s No Point in Southampton Playing the Rest of the Season
Has there ever been Premier League a team who shoots themselves in the foot quite like Russell Martin’s Southampton?
They went into the weekend as the league’s lowest-scoring side, up against top-of-the-table Liverpool and the meanest defence in the league. They scored twice – a feat only one other team (Arsenal) has managed against Liverpool in a league game all season – but conceded two goals through individual errors and then gave away an avoidable penalty to throw the game away. It felt like an all-too-familiar tale.
Southampton have now committed at least three more errors leading to opposition goals (eight) than any other team in the Premier League this season. They are also miles clear for errors leading to opposition shots (20), with no other team having made more than 11.
They are already close to matching the highest totals by any team in the Premier League in the whole of 2023-24 for both errors leading to goals (Brentford, 10) and shots (Chelsea and Tottenham, 24). And just look how close to their own goal they are making those mistakes.
The string of mistakes that led to Dominik Szoboszlai’s opener was like something out of another era. Teams at this level are so well drilled these days that we rarely see goals conceded like that one. Alex McCarthy’s decision to roll the ball out to Mateus Fernandes was ill-judged, Fernandes stumbled over the ball clumsily, and then Harvey Downes’ attempted clearance, which went straight to Szoboszlai, looked more Sunday league than Premier League. They really don’t do themselves any favours.
Martin has done a fine job at Southampton, but with four points from 12 games, they are as good as doomed already.
Saka and Ødegaard Make Arsenal Contenders
With Martin Ødegaard back in the starting XI for a second game running, things are looking up for Arsenal. They looked back to something close to their best as they ran out 3-0 winners over a not-to-be-underestimated Nottingham Forest at the Emirates.
“Obviously, when he’s in the team, you can sense something that is different,” manager Mikel Arteta said of his captain after the game. “It’s difficult to put a finger on it, but it’s different.”
One significant way in which Ødegaard improves Arsenal is in how much more they get from Bukayo Saka, which, for everyone else in the Premier League, is a pretty frightening prospect.
Even with Ødegaard missing so much of the season so far, Saka was already leading the Premier League’s assists charts, while he also had a few goals to his name. After a fantastic goal (assisted by Ødegaard) and an assist for Thomas Partey this weekend, Saka has 12 goal involvements this term, leaving him second in the league behind Mohamed Salah (16).
This weekend, Saka received twice as many passes from Ødegaard (18) as he did any other teammate (Jurriën Timber – 9), while he also made almost four times as many passes to the Norwegian (18) as he did any other player (Gabriel Jesus – 5).
Arsenal have a lot of points to claw back at the top of the table if they are to catch Liverpool, but with Ødegaard and Saka fit, anything is possible.
Leicester Are Right to Sack Cooper
Losing 2-1 to a Chelsea side who seem to be improving by the week under Enzo Maresca shouldn’t give too much cause for concern. It certainly shouldn’t be enough to sack your manager.
But Leicester put in an utterly dreadful performance in Saturday’s early kick-off, mustering just three shots in the first 93 minutes of the game, none of which hit the target, before finally finding the net from the penalty spot in second-half stoppage time when the game was already lost. On the back of a 3-0 defeat to Man Utd, that performance looks even worse.
What’s more, on the two occasions that Leicester have taken points in their last five games, they have had the benefit of playing with an extra man. In the win over Southampton and the draw with Ipswich, Leicester were a goal down when their opponents had a player sent off, and required an injury-time Jordan Ayew strike to eventually earn them the points. That doesn’t feel massively sustainable.
The fine 30 minutes that earned them a draw against Spurs on the opening weekend of the season and an impressive portion of the 4-2 defeat at Arsenal feel like distant memories. Did the 1-0 win over Bournemouth even happen?
The relegation zone, now just one point beneath them, is getting too close for comfort. It might seem harsh, but now was the right time to act, and the Foxes did so by sacking Steve Cooper on Sunday.
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