The Women’s Super League returns this weekend, and the derby between Manchester City and Manchester United headlines the fixtures. It comes with questions, though, and we ask five burning ones ahead of the clash.
Manchester will be the main focus for Women’s Super League fans on Sunday.
The WSL is back from its winter break, and the headline fixture sees Manchester City welcome Manchester United to the Etihad Stadium.
Both sides are chasing Chelsea, who are still unbeaten at the top of the table, so there is more than just bragging rights on the line.
This will be the 10th Manchester derby in the WSL with Man City leading the head-to-head battle by five wins to one, and the other three ties ending level.
Managers Gareth Taylor and Marc Skinner have built teams that have challenged for the WSL title in recent years, though both teams have fallen short against the all-conquering Chelsea.
City are second in the table with 22 points, trailing Chelsea by six. United are in fourth, just a point behind their neighbours and level with Arsenal, who have a better goal difference.
We preview an enthralling Manchester derby.
Can Man City Cope With Their Injuries?
The winter break couldn’t have come at a better time for City, who were ravaged by injuries in their last game in December.
Lauren Hemp and Alex Greenwood have suffered long-term injuries, and Khadija “Bunny” Shaw also experienced issues before the break.
Manchester City have lost two of their last three WSL games (W1) after only dropping points in two of their previous 23 league matches (W21 D1 L1). They suffered a shock 2-1 loss to Everton in their last game before the break.
They also lost 3-0 to Barcelona in the Champions League, losing a game for the first time in the group stage this season. It meant they qualified for the knockout stage but only in second, which will affect their seeding for the draw next month.
The loss of Hemp may be the biggest blow. She is one of two players in the league, along with Alessia Russo, to have recorded seven goal contributions – tied second for the most in the league. Hemp has provided five assists and scored twice, while she also leads the WSL for expected assists (3.56) and chances created (26).
The injury setbacks have also hinted at City’s overreliance on Shaw. Her absence proved costly at the end of last season, and it was arguably decisive in them failing to get across the line in the title race.
Shaw is the WSL’s leading scorer this season, with nine goals. She is also the leader for goal contributions (10), but given she’s missed City’s last four games and remains a doubt, they need other players to step up.
City will be buoyed by Vivianne Miedema’s return to action last weekend in their 3-0 FA Cup victory over Ipswich Town. Miedema, making her first appearance since October after recovering from a knee injury, scored the third goal.
Only time will tell if these injuries will be detrimental to their title chances, but they must beat United on Sunday to keep Chelsea within their reach. Historically, City have had the edge in this tie, but the two sides have possibly never been closer.
Is This Town Big Enough for Two?
Manchester United have never won an away WSL game against City in (D1 L4), with their only victory over the Citizens coming by a 2-1 scoreline in May 2023 at home.
City have also won their first WSL game in each of the last five calendar years by an aggregate score of 23-2, so the odds are against United.
Taylor’s City are the league’s second-highest scorers, with 21 goals, though that’s 10 fewer than league-leading Chelsea (31). City also rank second for expected goals (22.0 – behind Chelsea’s 23.2), shots (168) and shots on target (64). City’s shot conversion rate (12.5%) ranks fifth in the division.
But United are a solid unit. No team has conceded as few goals as United in the WSL this season (3). Across the first 10 games of a WSL campaign, only eventual champions Man City (2) in 2016 have conceded fewer goals in the history of the competition.
That is despite United conceding chances worth 11.1 xG against, which is a higher figure than Arsenal (5.9), Man City (8.2) and Chelsea (9.2).
United have kept the joint-most clean sheets (7), along with Arsenal, so City will need to ensure their attackers who are fit are fully firing. City have had the third most big chances (32) in the division this season, but have only converted 37.5% of them, a rate that ranks only sixth.
Which Manager Has the Edge?
There are some significant milestones on the line for City boss Taylor.
Should City win, he will move into second for the most victories in WSL history (73), ahead of Nick Cushing (72) and behind only Emma Hayes (151).
This game will also mark Taylor’s 99th WSL match in charge of Man City. Not including the Spring Series, Taylor will shortly become just the third WSL manager to hit 100 games in charge of one club, after Kelly Chambers (134 with Reading) and Hayes (204 with Chelsea).
Taylor is desperate to lift City’s first trophy since they won their first and only WSL title in 2016. He has been a runner-up twice in the past four years – in 2020-21 and 2023-24, while City finished third in 2021-22.
He has a fine record against United, having won three of his six WSL derbies, including each of the last two. He will certainly think he has Skinner’s card marked.
The United boss, on the other hand, has only one league win against Taylor and that came in 2023, when United beat City 2-1. Indeed, from 11 meetings with Man City in the WSL as a manager, Skinner – who was previously at Birmingham City – has claimed just two victories, losing six times.
United lost the WSL’s best goalkeeper last summer as Mary Earps departed for Paris Saint-Germain. However, Skinner had a plan…
Can United’s Breakout Performers Make Their Mark?
United have found another superstar between the sticks in Phallon Tullis-Joyce, who has made 30 saves in her 10 WSL matches. Her 90.9% save percentage is the best of any goalkeeper in the division this season.
She also tops the WSL for save percentage from shots inside the box (88%) and is joint-top for save percentage from shots outside the area (100%).
The American’s 6.1 goals prevented figure is the best in the WSL by far, with Arsenal’s Daphne van Domselaar (3.1) next. Tullis-Joyce has kept seven clean sheets, another league-high.
Ahead of her is a mean defence, marshalled by Maya Le Tissier and Millie Turner.
No defenders in the league have recorded more clean sheets this season than Turner and Le Tissier (7). The latter has also shone for England with Euro 2025 just around the corner.
Le Tissier leads United’s defenders for clearances (47), headed clearances (21), interceptions (15), tackles (24), successful duels (49), passes (636) and successful passes (495).
Turner boasts the best tackle success rate (84.6%) of any United defender this season, completing 11 of her 13 attempted tackles. In addition, Dominique Janssen – who joined in the summer – has helped to create a red wall.
It’s no coincidence that United find themselves in the mix at the top, and they have only been beaten this season by league leaders Chelsea. But they also have flair going forward.
Earlier this month, United triggered a one-year extension clause in Grace Clinton’s contract. Skinner has the chance to build this United side around one of the most exciting talents the league has to offer.
Clinton is United’s joint-top scorer with four goals so far and has created a further 13 chances, more than any other United player this term in the WSL. Geyse (47) is the only one of her teammates to attempt more dribbles than Clinton (40).
Clinton (37) is also second only to Elisabeth Terland (38) for open-play shot-ending sequence involvements among United players this term in the WSL.
But the midfielder is no stranger to an all-action display. She has contested (173) and won (80) more duels than any other player in the WSL this season.
With one eye on the summer, Clinton will want to ensure she shines in the biggest games and prove she can be a starter for Sarina Wiegman at Euro 2025. In a match that might be too close to call, Clinton could be the difference maker.
What Does the Opta Supercomputer Predict?
With all that said, how does the supercomputer call this one?
City have taken 18 points from a possible 27 in the WSL against United, scoring 18 goals in those matches and conceding just nine in return, so it is perhaps not surprising to see that our model makes them the big favourites, with a 60.8% win probability.
Despite United’s good form coming into this tie, the supercomputer gives them only an 18.6% chance of victory. The likelihood of the draw, meanwhile, is 20.6%
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