Man City are attempting fewer long balls this season, and yet they have been a theme of their recent games. Why is that, and will they turn to them again when they visit Arsenal?
Manchester City are having rather a funny season. Pep Guardiola might not be laughing, but it’s been a curious campaign, nonetheless.
Their run of one win in 13 games in all competitions at the back end of 2024 might not even be the most surprising thing about it, though.
Those of you who watched City’s 3-1 win over Chelsea last weekend may have also caught on to a surprising trend, something that was a feature of all three of their goals in the comeback victory. City were happy to go long.
If there’s one thing people associate with Guardiola’s Man City – other than almost relentless league title winning – it is a patient passing game. They have recorded the most passes in the Premier League in every season since Guardiola was appointed in 2016.
City won a Champions League group game 2-1 at home to Napoli in the 2017-18 season, but Maurizio Sarri’s side had given them all sorts of problems with their high press, with Guardiola’s men defiantly continuing to play out from the back regardless. After the game, the City boss said: “We have to do it [pass out from the back] more… You play long balls against that team [and] in two seconds they are attacking. In football, that’s how fast it goes. So, you have to play that way.”
After the win over Chelsea on Saturday, more than seven years later, Guardiola’s comments around how his team played through the Blues’ press were a little different.
“Second half, they were more aggressive than man-to-man,” he said. “When it’s man-to-man and they jump to the keeper, you can make a two-against-one with the keeper. But when it doesn’t happen, you have to play [long to] Erling [Haaland], because if you win that ball it is a chance.”
Now, of course, they didn’t have Haaland back in 2017-18, a striker who is not only a lethal finisher, but has the size and physicality to be a target man if needed. But back then it almost felt like Guardiola was insulted by anyone who suggested his team go long. As it turned out, 8.4% of their passes against Napoli were classed as long passes – a pass with a length of at least 32 metres.
That doesn’t necessarily mean going long in the industrial sense of hoofing it up in the air in the vague direction of the opponents. It can still be a very deliberate and accurate pass to a teammate in space.
Against Chelsea last weekend, City played 53 long passes. That made up 9.4% of their overall passes in the game (567), the highest percentage for City in any Premier League game this season. The next highest was their 8.8% in their 2-1 home defeat to Manchester United in mid-December, and the third highest was in the 2-2 draw at Brentford in mid-January (8.7%).
They were effective, too. Ilkay Gündogan’s ball over the top to Matheus Nunes ultimately led to Josko Gvardiol equalising after Noni Madueke had given Chelsea an early lead.
Two also came from the feet of goalkeeper Ederson, who found Erling Haaland with a long ball that eventually led to the Norwegian lobbing Robert Sánchez to make it 2-1. Ederson also played a ball to the halfway line that was flicked on by Kevin De Bruyne before Haaland fed Phil Foden to seal the win late on.
That said, perhaps people only noticed those long passes more against Chelsea because they led to goals.
Just three days earlier, when City relinquished a two-goal lead to lose 4-2 at Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, 12.4% of their passes were long. That was their highest in any game since February 2023, suggesting Guardiola is perhaps seeing it as a partial solution to their recent rut.
Of course, it ultimately didn’t work against PSG, but it most certainly did against Chelsea. So, could we see it again when City travel to Arsenal on Sunday?
There have been some titanic tussles between Guardiola and his former mentee, Mikel Arteta, in recent years. One such game occurred in February 2023, when Man City and Arsenal were battling for the Premier League title. City travelled to north London and left with all three points after an impressive 3-1 victory. That game saw City play 52 of their 303 passes long (17.2%), their second-highest percentage of long passes in a game since Guardiola arrived.
It followed their meeting in the FA Cup just three weeks earlier, when City won 1-0 at the Etihad Stadium, with 13.2% of their passes going long, the ninth-highest percentage in a game under Guardiola. It appeared to be something the Spaniard noticed working against Arsenal. City didn’t go long quite as often when they won 4-1 against the same opponents the following April (9.9%), but it was still a higher percentage than most of their games.
In their subsequent three league meetings, City didn’t go long with more than 7.9% of their passes, and failed to win any of them (D2 L1), though that includes the 2-2 draw at the Etihad earlier this season where the attack-vs-defence nature of the second half will have impacted that following Leandro Trossard’s red card.
Long balls could therefore be something Guardiola looks to utilise again on Sunday. Of course, City will need to overcome the dominant centre-back pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães to do so, though those two also played in Arsenal’s 3-1 loss to City in February 2023.
Is it just lofted balls up to Haaland, though? The proverbial ‘hitting the big man’? Yes and no. City have been making use of the fact Haaland is not only a supreme finisher but he’s also built like a wardrobe. The Norwegian has received the most long balls of City players in the Premier League this season (76), but he isn’t the only target.
What was noticeable against Chelsea was that balls over the top were often for runs from full-backs Gvardiol and Nunes. The former got in behind for a glorious chance in the first half from one such ball, while the latter was played in himself soon after, which eventually led to Gvardiol’s equaliser.
In all, Nunes (44) and Gvardiol (38) rank second and third for long balls received for City in Premier League games this season, though it should be mentioned that Nunes hasn’t exclusively played at right-back, playing some games on the left of the attack. He has, though, received more switches than any of his teammates (11), showing how much they look for him with long passes in general.
So, are City a long-ball team now? No, of course not. They very much stepped away from playing that way in their 3-1 Champions League win against Club Brugge on Wednesday. The victory sealed their place in the knockout play-offs – where they will face either Real Madrid – and only 19 of their 815 passes were classed as ‘long’ – just 2.3%.
In the Premier League this season, only Tottenham (762) have attempted fewer than their 799 long passes, while City’s average of 34.7 long passes per game is down quite a bit on last season (42.2), and even further down from the 2022-23 campaign (46.3).
It is more about City knowing when to use them and being efficient when they do. Despite attempting the second fewest, they have completed more long passes (461) than seven other teams in the Premier League this season, and their long pass success rate of 57.7% is comfortably the highest in the division. In fact, Brighton & Hove Albion (50.8%) are the only other team to find a teammate with at least half of their long passes.
Another explanation for that reduction in long balls from City this season – much like the reason for most things that have reduced for them – is the absence of the injured Rodri. The 2024 Ballon d’Or winner completed the fourth-most long balls in the Premier League last season (241), despite the fact he only attempted 299, at least 459 fewer than any of the three players who completed more.
It is therefore understandable that without a Rodri replica, City’s long passing has reduced, but that they seem to be upping their numbers in recent games perhaps points to Guardiola coming up with new solutions to reincorporate long balls as a weapon, particularly against high-pressing opposition.
He’s looked a bit further back than midfield for one of his main solutions, though, and Arsenal will need to be vigilant when Ederson is on the ball. His pass for Haaland’s goal last week saw him go joint-top with Paul Robinson for the most assists by a goalkeeper in Premier League history (5). Only 13 players in the Premier League have completed more long passes than Ederson this season (89), and all of them have attempted at least 67 more than him (158).
Don’t expect to see Man City hitting it long too often, but beware that they certainly have it in their arsenal when needed… pardon the pun.
It should be a fascinating contest at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday. City going long and Arsenal relying on set-pieces? Did someone say “Pure Barclays”?
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