It’s time to give the 2018 QB Draft class some praise.
Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson were all picked in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft and will all start at least one game in the 2024 postseason.
Oddly enough, this is the first time in NFL history that’s happened.
There have been plenty of three-player classes in the same postseason: John Elway, Todd Blackledge and Tony Eason of from the 1983 draft were in the 1986 playoffs, Patrick Mahomes, Deshaun Watson and Mitchell Trubisky from 2017 made the 2018 playoffs and Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert from 2020 were in the 2022 playoffs. But only the 2018 class will feature four starting first-round quarterbacks.
We are a long way away from declaring this quarterback crop one of the best of all time, especially since none have won a Super Bowl and they’ve gone a combined 8-10 in the playoffs. But making the postseason is a big deal, and the manner in which they’ve all accomplished their respective feats is encouraging.
Mayfield was a surprising No. 1 overall pick by the Cleveland Browns who was quickly cast aside for Watson in 2022 before short stints with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams. Mayfield found a home and blossomed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have now won two consecutive NFC South titles with him under center.
Darnold, selected two picks later, flamed out with the New York Jets after a poor three-year tenure before he spent two injury-riddled seasons with the Panthers and one backup year with the San Francisco 49ers. He joined the Minnesota Vikings this past offseason before the team drafted J.J. McCarthy in the first round and looked as though he’d remain QB2. But a preseason knee injury ended McCarthy’s rookie campaign and vaulted Darnold into the starting role, where he led Minnesota to a 14-3 record during the regular season.
Allen, meanwhile, has been an MVP candidate for a few seasons since the Buffalo Bills traded up to take him No. 7 overall. He wasn’t always a polished product, but patience paid off for a franchise that has since won five consecutive AFC East titles with Allen and owns the No. 2 seed in the conference this year.
Jackson, the final pick of the first round, has proved to be the best of the bunch. He led the Baltimore Ravens to the playoffs after taking over for Joe Flacco midway through his rookie season, was named the league’s MVP in his second season before winning another one in 2023. He could even win his third in 2024 after a stellar campaign.
We are, of course, not forgetting the fifth quarterback taken in the first round. Josh Rosen went to the Arizona Cardinals at 10th overall but never found his footing in the NFL. He played one season with the Cardinals before being traded to the Miami Dolphins in 2019 and finished his career with a four-game stint with the Atlanta Falcons.
Not every first-round quarterback can be a star, but the 2018 class sure looks like one of the best of the Super Bowl era. While it pales in comparison to the heralded classes of 1983 (with Elway, Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, etc.) and 2004 (with Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger), the 2018 class could be trending in that direction depending on how 2024 and beyond goes.
It’s also worth noting that the combined careers of both of those aforementioned classes have already fully played, while the 2018 quarterbacks are only in their seventh seasons
What makes 2018 stand out, then, is that class along with the 1983 edition are the only first-round quarterback classes with at least 10 combined years to have at least one postseason start between four quarterbacks.
The only other class that could conceivably catch 2018 is the 2020 class of Burrow, Tagovailoa, Herbert and Jordan Love. That group only has seven years with a postseason start but only 20 combined seasons.
Another way to interpret the success of the 2018 class compared with others is to look at the distribution of postseasons.
For example, the trio of Elway, Marino and Kelly account for almost 90% of the total postseasons for the 1983 class. Aaron Rodgers accounts for nearly all of the 2005 quarterbacks’ postseasons, while Peyton Manning and Troy Aikman went to all of the postseasons for their respective classes.
The 2017 class will continue to add postseasons because of Patrick Mahomes, but the other first-rounders from that class – Watson and Trubisky – don’t appear as if they’ll start in a postseason anytime soon.
The key element of the 2018 class, similar to that of the 1983 and 2004 classes, is age and situation. Both 1983 and 2004 benefited from longevity under center for their respective franchise quarterbacks with a quality team surrounding themselves. Simply put: Most of the first rounders from these years maintained their statuses as playoff-caliber quarterbacks for their entire careers because of the teams they played for as well as their skills.
At first glance, the 2018 class didn’t have that. Jackson and Allen proved themselves franchise cornerstones pretty quickly and have maintained their status after making the postseason five times of their past six seasons. But Mayfield and Darnold couldn’t maintain starting roles before their current team. Mayfield has been a bit of a mixed bag all around and Darnold didn’t see real success until he joined Minnesota.
Darnold benefited the most from better coaching and weapons with the Vikings. It also helped that Minnesota’s defense consistency kept them in games throughout the year even when the offense sputtered. In turn, Darnold has utilized the skills he was known for in college and sparsely in the NFL while posting career highs in completion rate, passing yards, passing touchdowns and passer rating.
Mayfield, meanwhile, polished his game immensely with the Buccaneers. His career-high 71.4 completion percentage and 86.8 well-thrown percentage both ranked third in the NFL this year, and both were major improvements on his 2023 campaign and much better than his most-recent previous full season as a starter in 2020.
For Jackson and Allen, it’s simply been about maximizing scoring opportunities, minimizing mistakes and preserving their dynamism.
This was Allen’s first season with fewer than 10 turnovers (six interceptions and two lost fumbles) and it was the best interception percentage (1.2%) of his career. He also scored double-digit rushing touchdowns for a second consecutive season with a healthy 5.2 yards per rush attempt average.
Jackson, already known for his incredible rushing ability, put together his best passing season as a pro. He easily set career highs in passing yards (4,172) and passing touchdowns (41) with the lowest interception rate (0.8%). No other QB in league history has thrown for that many TDs while throwing four picks or fewer. He added a four-season high of 915 rushing yards – 189 yards shy of his career best from 2019 – with four rushing touchdowns.
So if Allen and Jackson are mainstays – which is safe to assume at this moment – and Mayfield has proven in consecutive seasons he can win, Darnold’s uncertain future will be what tips the scales one way or the other with the 2018 class.
Either way, this should remain one of the best quarterback classes of all time, and it could overtake the 2004 first-rounders if its collective success continues.
These playoffs will be crucial in this assessment, especially given how many of the quarterbacks from that class made the postseason. Allen and Jackson account for the second and third seeds in the AFC, while Mayfield and Darnold are fourth and fifth in the NFC.
There is also a chance, then, that two first-round quarterbacks of the same class could meet in the Super Bowl. That’s also never happened before.
Research support provided by Stats Perform’s Jeff Mangurten and Jake Coyne. Check out our NBA, NFL, college basketball, FBS and FCS coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and X for more.
