In stark contrast to last season, Aston Villa‘s defence has been concerningly leaky in 2024-25. We look at what exactly has been going wrong for Unai Emery’s side.
Aston Villa aren’t having the best time of it at the moment.
They have gone five consecutive Premier League games without a win (August 2022) for the first time since the Steven Gerrard era, and are now 12th in the table. Although in points terms they aren’t that far off the top four, last season’s heights of Champions League qualification feel like a long time ago. In all competitions, their winless run now stretches to eight games.
After Sunday’s 3-0 defeat at Chelsea – not in itself a disastrous result, but a far cry from the 1-0 win at Stamford Bridge in the same fixture last season – Villa have shipped 22 goals in the Premier League in 2024-25. It means Unai Emery’s once resolute and resilient side now have the seventh-worst defence in the league.
They have shown that resilient side at times – although all too infrequently – this term, namely in the Champions League, in which they have conceded only one goal in five games, and that was the penalty Club Brugge scored after Tyrone Mings’ inexplicable handball. They haven’t conceded from open play in 450 minutes against five of Europe’s best teams, but are shipping almost two goals a game domestically.
Emery suggested after the Chelsea defeat that a potential problem could be that opponents have worked out how to play against Villa. “This year has been different because we are not a surprise like last year,” he said. In Europe, meanwhile, they are not quite as known a quantity.
One of the biggest problems this season has been Villa’s susceptibility to transitions – a topic that Emery has brought up on several occasions during their poor recent run.
They have been caught out of shape after losing the ball to devastating effect this season. Only Brentford (13) have conceded more goals on the transition in the Premier League than Villa (11), when last season, only Arsenal (12), Everton (14) and Nottingham Forest conceded fewer goals on the break than them (17). They’ve gone from conceding a goal on the transition every 2.2 games last season to one every 1.2 games this term.
A big part of that problem has been their problems defending opposition counter-attacks, which count as transitions but will cover more ground than non-counter-attacks.
Last season, Villa conceded only one goal from a quick break upfield by the opposition, which was – probably unsurprisingly – the lowest total in the Premier League (alongside Liverpool). After only 13 games of this season, they have already shipped four goals from counter-attacks – four times their total in 2023-24 and the joint-most in the whole league. On a per-game basis, their numbers have skyrocketed from 0.03 fast-break goals conceded per game to 0.31 – more than a ten-fold increase.
When it comes to shots conceded on the break, Villa’s numbers have doubled, from 0.5 shots per game to 1.0.
So, they are conceding more chances, but not so much more to explain why quite so many goals have been going in.
The loss of Douglas Luiz, who departed for Juventus in the summer, from the base of their midfield will certainly have contributed, making them easier to play through when slightly out of shape. Amadou Onana and Youri Tielemans are both very good players to have in the double pivot but perhaps neither of them sits in front of the defence as dutifully as Luiz.
Another problem is that their offside trap hasn’t been anything like as effective this season as it was last.
In 2023-24, Villa were rightly lauded for their bold high line. They caught their opponents offside 4.4 times per game, and 167 times in total – 42 more than any other team and more than double 16 of the other 19 Premier League teams. This term, they are catching their opponents offside half as often, with 2.2 per game, or 29 times in total in 13 games.
The fact their offside trap is more effective in Europe this season (3.4 offsides per game) fits in line with Emery’s suggestion that domestic opponents have worked them out. It is leading to good chances being shipped, and lots of them.
When you leave as much space in behind as Villa do, if your offside trap isn’t watertight, you are susceptible to conceding high-quality chances, and Villa have done just that this season. Of the shots they have conceded on the counter-attack this season, 28% have been classed as ‘big chances’ – defined as a chance you would expect the attacker to score. Only City (35%) have a worse record in this regard.
Of the 11 goals they have conceded in transition this term, three have been chances worth at least 0.6 xG (at least a 60% chance of them being scored), while a further three were one-on-ones that were a little more tricky but still worth at least 0.2 xG. Goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez has been exposed far too often.
It also hasn’t helped that Martínez has suffered a big dip in form, too. Last season, the Argentine was one of the best-performing goalkeepers in the Premier League, as he conceded 43 goals from chances worth 50.5 expected goals on target, suggesting his saves alone prevented 7.5 goals. This term, he is underperforming compared to his xGOT by -3.5, putting him at the opposite end of the scale in terms of how useful his shot-stopping has been. The sight of him passing the ball straight to Nicolas Jackson on Sunday was one of a player lacking in confidence and a long way off the goalkeeper who won the World Cup in 2022 and the Yashin Trophy, awarded to the world’s best goalkeeper, in both 2023 and 2024.
Villa have also got themselves into trouble far too often this season when playing out from the back. Their build-up will have been affected by Luiz’s absence this term, so that is something they are clearly still getting used to.
But even so, the number of errors they are making in possession is still a real concern. Only Southampton have committed more errors leading to a shot (22) or errors leading to a goal (8) in Premier League games this season than Villa (12 leading to a shot, 5 leading to a goal). With those numbers, Villa are already close to equalling their totals for the whole of 2023-24 (13 and 6).
It all adds up to a concerning defensive record this season which, particularly when paired up with a misfiring attack, leaves Villa a shadow of the hugely impressive team they were only last season.
They will overcome what is surely just a blip, but they’re going to have to do so quickly if they are to get their season back on track and repeat their challenge for the top four.
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