Arguably the best rookie quarterback in NFL history didn’t go wire to wire as the No. 1 recruit in his class. In fact, C.J. Stroud barely reached 5-star status as a high school prospect and only got there at the very end of the 2020 cycle.
Overlooked once more by the Carolina Panthers at the top of the 2023 NFL Draft, Stroud posted monster numbers as a rookie and will lead the Houston Texans into Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round playoff matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. Stroud already has his first postseason win, carving up the Cleveland Browns’ top-ranked defense last week.
But early on in Stroud’s recruitment, the Rancho Cucamonga (Calif.) product looked like a solid 4-star type who likely would stay on the West Coast rather than head east to join one of college football’s elite programs. Ohio State bet on Stroud, who continued developing through his senior season to the point that 247Sports bumped him up to 5-star status.
“His confidence grew as a senior and he became an elite dude,” wrote 247Sports national recruiting analyst Greg Biggins in 2021. “He kind of went from a regional guy to the No. 3 overall QB in the county.”
As a high schooler, Stroud impressed even as an underclassman in no-pads environments — think quarterback camps and other workouts. But Stroud had yet to start a game for Rancho Cucamonga and reported no offers. He earned the starting job as a junior in 2018 and went 180-for-300 (60.0 percent) for 2343 yards, 19 touchdowns, and six interceptions, according to MaxPreps.com.
Power Five programs finally started taking notice, but not the biggest ones. Colorado, California, Utah, and Oregon State offered that winter. Stroud held off on committing that spring, an unusual move for a quarterback with solid Power Five offers.
Not until Stroud’s senior year did the big boys get involved. He finished the 2019 season by connecting on 265-of-402 passes (65.9 percent) for 3878 yards and 47 touchdowns to only nine interceptions.
Ohio State offered in October 2019; Stroud committed and signed with the Buckeyes that December.
By August 2021, Stroud had impressed coach Ryan Day and OSU’s staff enough to where he entered his redshirt freshman season as the unquestioned starting quarterback with no veteran transfers coming in as contingency plans.
“Strong-armed guys who just have to wait for people to get open typically don’t last that long,” Day said of Stroud before his first start in 2021. “But he’s a guy who has a strong arm and he has accuracy, but does have anticipation and touch as well. Those things are really good traits to have.”
College football fans know where things went from there: Stroud established himself as one of the sport’s top quarterbacks immediately. As a redshirt freshman starter in 2021, Stroud completed 71.9 percent of his passes for 4435 yards and 44 touchdowns. He kept up a similar level of production in 2022 when he completed 66.3 percent of his throws for 3688 yards and added 41 more touchdowns against only six interceptions. He was a two-time Hesiman Trophy finalist.
Stroud’s path and success in college, like many, was non-traditional. It came a little out of nowhere.
“Stroud didn’t benefit from a normal freshman season due to COVID in 2020 when he played only eight snaps in three games and didn’t throw a single pass,” Buckuts beat writer Patrick Murphy told 247Sports. “While he won the starting quarterback job the next year, there were still some early struggles. He threw three interceptions in the first three games before having to sit out a game with a shoulder injury. When Stroud returned, he got better, progressed each week, and settled into the offense. He threw for 400-plus yards four times in the final nine games.
“In 2022, his second year as a starter, Stroud took the next leap. His understanding of the game was just at another level. His ability to break down plays minutes after the game or weeks later was not normal for a college quarterback and that helped him get better at understanding what he needed to do on the field. He put in the work, and refined his physical and mental abilities, knowing he wanted to be the best.”
Following the 2022 season, Houston selected Stroud with the No. 2 overall pick last spring behind Alabama’s Bryce Young, who struggled badly this season for Carolina.
Stroud may have been slow to develop in high school, but he needed no time to adjust to the NFL. He threw for 4,108 yards and 23 touchdowns with just five picks, leading the perennially woebegone Texans to a stunning AFC South title.
Up next, Stroud faces his biggest challenge yet: attempting to dethrone NFL MVP Lamar Jackson and the No. 1 seed Ravens.
“For C.J. to go and have the game that he had, unbelievable performance by a rookie,” said Houston coach DeMeco Ryans. “… C.J. is the reason that we are in this position. He’s special.”
