UCLA women’s basketball team is already a national title contender. But more consistent offensive play from an unheralded elite defender could put the Bruins over the top.
The UCLA Bruins have joined a new conference and ascended to new heights as a program all in one year.
In the program’s Big Ten debut, the Bruins have started the 2024-25 season with 23 straight wins – a school record – and are the nation’s top-ranked team. Center Lauren Betts is in the conversation for national player of the year and the Bruins roster is as talented as any in the country.
UCLA’s perfect record will be put to the test Thursday night at USC. Regardless of the game’s outcome, the Bruins will be in the inner circle of realistic title contenders come March Madness.
And, if a certain underrated player on their team can keep performing at a high level, they could be the last team left standing.
Why Undefeated Isn’t Unbeatable
It may be surprising UCLA is only ranked fifth in TRACR, our Team Rating Adjusted for the team’s Conference and current Roster, despite being Division I’s only undefeated team. Defending national champion South Carolina, which lost to UCLA in November and recently suffered a second loss to Tennessee, holds the top ranking. On its face, that seems unfair to UCLA and makes TRACR look like it’s been hanging out with Paul Finebaum.
But look closer and it’s clear the ranking is based on the skepticism of UCLA’s schedule to date. The Bruins have only two wins over top-20 TRACR teams: Baylor and South Carolina. (Ohio State is ranked in the top 10 and Maryland the top 20 of the AP and coaches polls, but they’re outside the TRACR top 20).
Conversely, South Carolina has seven wins over top-20 TRACR teams. That results from TRACR favoring the SEC, the Gamecocks’ conference, with nine teams inside the top 20, over the Big Ten’s two teams – UCLA and USC.
Still, UCLA has a chance to add a signature win against crosstown rival USC, which is ranked sixth in TRACR as well as in both national polls, in one of the bigger regular-season games of any conference. USC boasts guard JuJu Watkins, the most valuable player in the country based on our WAR metric.
Despite being undefeated, UCLA would fall from first place in Big Ten with a loss: UCLA enters at 11-0 and USC 11-1. The two teams also meet in their regular-season finale March 1 at UCLA.
A decisive road victory could send UCLA even higher in TRACR because the Bruins are within striking distance of the top spot. They’re of one of five teams ranked in the top 10 in both offensive TRACR (O-TRACR) and defensive TRACR (D-TRACR) along with UConn, South Carolina, Notre Dame and Texas.
While the Bruins are a well-balanced team, they particularly excel on the defensive end, ranking fifth in D-TRACR and at or near the top of the leaderboard in most defensive categories.
Betts, UCLA’s 6-foot-7 junior center, is one of the best interior defenders in the nation and Kiki Rice gives opposing guards nightmares. But there’s another player on the team whose defensive dominance doesn’t pop as much yet who’s the unsung hero of the team and possibly the biggest factor in UCLA’s championship bid.
Angela Dugalic’s Quiet Impact
When you look at VAPR, our Value Added Performance Rating that estimates the impact a player has on the court per game, it’s not surprising to see Betts and Rice near the top of the leaderboard. They’re UCLA’s leading scorers in addition to being the defensive standouts.
But the third player in the top 10 nationally may come as a shock. Angela Dugalic is ranked ninth in VAPR despite being only sixth on the team in minutes per game (just under 22). She’s ranked 124th in WAR because she hasn’t been able to accumulate as much value as a lot of other players, but on a play-by-play basis, our model ranks her as one of the more impactful players in the country.
Dugalic offers value offensively. She’s a good shooter for her size (6-foot-4) and a great connector. She’s willing to set screens, space the floor or take advantage of a matchup when the defense allows it. She’s not the driving force of the Bruins offense, but also doesn’t take much off the table.
Dugalic has struggled with her shot lately (shooting 28.6% from the field since the start of January) and isn’t a high-volume player even at her best. Most of her value comes on the defensive end, where VAPR rates her as an elite defender.
Part of Dugalic’s ranking is because she plays fewer minutes than some of the other elite defenders in the nation, so she can give her maximum effort in those shorter bursts. But to credit all of her defensive prowess to the minutes total would be underselling her impact.
When talking about team fit, things usually shift to the offensive side of the ball. Is there enough shooting or playmaking in a lineup?
But defensive fit is just as important and Dugalic fits like a glove playing next to Betts, who ranks third in the nation in blocks per game and makes opposing shooters think twice about going anywhere near the rim.
With Betts as the anchor down low, Dugalic can be the best version of herself defensively. She’s decent at altering shots with her size and is a great defender of versatile bigs. She’s just quick enough to close out shooters and recover on drives, using her length to bother players with the ball. Plus, she has some of the quickest hands you’ll ever see for a big.
Dugalic’s 1.7 steals per game is excellent for a player 6-4 or taller. With her length, smarts and hands, she gives the Bruins a wider margin of error on defense.
When offenses successfully tilt a defense early in a possession and has defensive players scrambling, it usually ends in a great look at the basket. But Dugalic often erases that advantage by getting back into position quickly and disrupting any drives that come her way.
The best version of UCLA has Dugalic on the floor. Even if it’s clear she’s not going to be a high-minutes player, getting Dugalic closer to 30 minutes per game rather than 20 would benefit the Bruins in the long run. That’s why it’s crucial for Dugalic to find a little more rhythm offensively, so coach Cori Close feels comfortable with her getting heavy crunch-time minutes.
If Dugalic can play well enough offensively to stay on the floor more frequently, her defensive impact could be the difference in the Bruins’ national title hopes.
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