It’s the nightmare scenario every Australian rugby player and fan is dreading: Joe Schmidt walks away from the Wallabies at the end of next year’s Lions series in August.
But could more pain be around the corner?
As Rugby Australia sweats on Schmidt’s long-term commitment, could New Zealand Rugby be lurking in the background ready to pounce on his services should he call time on his association with the Wallabies?
Sources have told The Roar that Schmidt is considered one who got away by some influential New Zealand rugby figures and they’re watching his every move.
Rugby Australia wants Joe Schmidt to stay beyond the Lions, but could New Zealand Rugby be circling? (Photo by Michael Steele/Getty Images)
It’s not lost on many on the Shaky Isles that Schmidt’s expertise helped turn the All Blacks around in the 18 months leading up to last year’s run to the World Cup final.
“If he wasn’t there, I don’t reckon we would have got into a final without him,” All Blacks great Dane Coles said earlier this year about Schmidt.
Well before the All Blacks’ campaign got up and running last year though, New Zealand Rugby had quickly moved to lock up Scott Robertson, who was on his way to securing a seventh straight Super Rugby title with the Crusaders. His early appointment, however, meant there was no space for Schmidt in the post-Ian Foster era.
But Robertson’s 10-4 record (71 per cent) at the end of his first season in charge – the worst winning percentage of the past five All Blacks coaches at the same point – has left some unconvinced he is the right man to lead the three-time world champions to the 2027 World Cup on Australian shores.
Sources have told The Roar they see Robertson as a Culture Coach.
The jury is still out on All Blacks coach Scott Robertson. (Photo By Sam Barnes/Sportsfile via Getty Images)
For the old-school political factions in New Zealand rugby, that’s left many rolling their eyes.
It’s also why they are filthy Schmidt, whose technical understanding of the game is world-renowned, wasn’t locked up beyond the 2023 World Cup.
At the same time, observers around the world, including in New Zealand, have seen the immediate impact Schmidt has made on the Wallabies after a much improved 6-7, win-loss record.
Schmidt is currently in New Zealand considering his future with Rugby Australia.
The 59-year-old signed a short-term, 20-month deal until the end of next year’s Lions series that wraps up in Sydney next August.
He did so in large part because of the well-documented nature of his son’s health condition.
At his unveiling as Wallabies coach in January, Schmidt also said he felt he had a responsibility in getting Australian rugby back off the canvas.
Twelve months into his rebuilding mission, it’s clear Schmidt has done just that by bringing some respect back to the Wallabies after an encouraging end of year tour where they beat England at Twickenham for the first time in nine years and backed it up by smashing Wales.
Although the Wallabies stumbled against Scotland, they then pushed world No.2 Ireland to the final whistle by going down 22-19.
After The Roar reported in October that Schmidt was more likely to call time on his brief tenure than stay on through to the 2027 World Cup, the New Zealander told the Sydney Morning Herald that he wanted to make a call on his future by December.
“It’s something I know I have to make a decision on,” Schmidt told the Herald.
“And it is something I have committed to making a decision on post-spring tour, and before we get too far into December.”
RA CEO Phil Waugh unveils Joe Schmidt (L) as the Wallabies’ new coach on January 19, 2024 in Sydney. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
On Tuesday, RA CEO Phil Waugh said it remained unclear whether Schmidt would re-sign with the national body but added that they had started making contingency plans in case the New Zealander decided to call time on his brief association with the Wallabies.
“We’re working through what that may look like, which is an appropriate business practice for when you don’t have certainty of an outcome,” Waugh said.
“I think Joe was quite overt that he saw his responsibility as elevating Australian rugby but also providing a platform for an Australian to take over when he does finish up.
“If you look across the four Super Rugby clubs now, the four coaches across the system; Simon Cron’s a very strong coach at the Force; Stephen Larkham at the Brumbies; Les Kiss in Queensland and Dan McKellar in NSW; we’ve got four very strong coaches in our system.
“So I think that we’re well positioned, but it’s not just about the Wallaby coach, it’s about building capability across the system, which I think we’ve done in the last 12 months.”
Lingering in the back of Schmidt’s mind is the Wallabies are unlikely to win the World Cup despite RA’s desire this week to play on then final day of the tournament in 2027.
The All Blacks, who lost the 2023 World Cup 12-11 to the Springboks, will head across the ditch as one of the tournament’s favourites.
For a New Zealander who hasn’t got his hands on the Webb Ellis Cup, it will surely become a tantalising prospect.
