Oklahoma State is in the midst of a potential disaster. And Ollie Gordon isn’t living up to Heisman Trophy expectations. So what’s gone wrong? Well, a little bit of everything.
In a way, it’s flattering.
Mike Gundy has set a high floor in Stillwater, winning at least seven games in every season except for 2005, when he went 4-7 as a first-year head coach. That consistent competitiveness is wildly uncommon for a non-blue-blood program.
It’s also made it jarring to watch the first half of Oklahoma State’s 2024 season. The Pokes play at No. 13 BYU Friday night in a matchup of a 3-3 team and a 6-0 team. But two months ago, you would have figured Oklahoma State would be the undefeated party and BYU the one scrapping to make a bowl.
But the Pokes have been awful by their standards, and the most overt failure to meet expectations has been the one by the Oklahoma State run game.
Tailback Ollie Gordon was a common preseason pick to be a Heisman Trophy finalist a season after he led FBS with 1,732 rushing yards on an average carry of 6.1.
Gundy had fielded elite running backs many times before (Chuba Hubbard, Justice Hill, Kendall Hunter, etc.) and the program’s long-range tailback history is one of the richest in the sport. No one needed Gordon to be Barry Sanders or Thurman Thomas, but he figured to be a huge star this year.
It hasn’t happened.
Gordon is having his own nightmare year. He has averaged 3.8 yards on 101 carries (304) total in half a season and scored four touchdowns after scoring 21 last year. He has only been an occasional, minor factor as a pass catcher.
He left a loss to West Virginia two weeks ago with an injury, which didn’t appear to end his season but could still limit him over the second half.
What’s gone wrong? Pretty much everything.
An Offensive Line Meltdown
The story of Gordon’s miserable season begins with the guys blocking for him.
In 2023, Gordon averaged 4.0 yards before contact, as his offensive line pushed forward and he darted forward into holes. In 2024, the Oklahoma State line has not delivered, and Gordon has averaged 1.8 yards before contact.
It’s a weird thing! Four of the five starters on Oklahoma State’s offensive line are redshirt seniors and returning starters, most of whom earned lots of praise earlier in their careers. The line includes returning team captains and dozens of starts. The fifth starter is a transfer from Arizona State, left tackle Isaia Glass, who brought a wealth of starting experience in a power conference.
It’s not just Gordon who can’t get out of neutral. Oklahoma State’s backup running backs, Sesi Vailahi and Trent Howard, are averaging between 0.9 and 2.2 yards before contact. Comparatively, last year, Oklahoma State’s running backs averaged 3.7 yards before contact.
Unquestionably, it’s been harder – like, more than twice as hard – for Oklahoma State running backs to get a head of steam this year. The offensive line has just not opened up running lanes.
A Slight Decline in Gordon’s Running
It’s not clear that this is all the line’s fault, though. The OK State offensive line has allowed a 44.0% run disruption rate. That’s the rate of run-blocking reps on which an offensive lineman allows a defender to beat him into a gap and change a running lane. That’s just about the same as the 44.9% run disruption rate the unit allowed last year.
So, what’s happening? Are the Cowboys linemen just getting stood up, failing to get forward drive even as they don’t allow defenders to burst into the backfield? That’s part of it.
Another factor is that Gordon hasn’t been the same superhuman ball carrier he was in 2023.
Last year, Gordon averaged 2.2 yards after contact and 2.8 yards on carries featuring a run disruption. This year, he has averaged 1.9 yards after contact (a milder decline than his yards before contact, but still a 14% dip) and 1.3 yards per run disruption. He has forced 0.2 missed or broken tackles per carry, more or less the same as last year.
Gordon’s performance hasn’t fallen off a cliff, but he’s been a bit less of a force than he was during his 2023 star turn. And with the line not getting him started, that’s been a problem.
Not a Matter of Defenses Loading the Box
After one ugly running performance against Tulsa in September, Gundy suggested that one of the causes for Gordon’s lack of production was a defensive preference to pile defenders into the box to stop him.
That’s not the case.
Gordon has faced eight-man boxes on 27.3% of his snaps this season, one of the lowest rates in the Big 12. (The league average for running backs with 25-plus carries is 39.1%.)
Given Oklahoma State’s preference for a widely aligned spread offense, perhaps eight-man boxes aren’t the best measuring stick. What really matters is whether Oklahoma State has enough blockers to handle all of the guys trying to tackle Gordon. But in fact, Gordon has had more chances to run against even or favorable boxes than all but two Big 12 running backs.
Gordon has taken 74 of his 101 carries on downs in which Oklahoma State had at least as many blockers in the box (offensive linemen, tight ends, closely aligned receivers, and fullbacks) as the opposition had defenders. (This calculation doesn’t include quarterbacks or running backs, who could make the numbers even more favorable with option concepts.)
On these carries alone, Gordon has averaged just 3.5 yards overall and 1.7 yards before contact, both a tiny fraction of the numbers put up by backs like Texas Tech’s Tahj Brooks (5.9 yards per carry with an even or favorable box count) and UCF’s RJ Harvey (6.6). In this light, Oklahoma State’s offensive line performance also looks quite bad, because the performance is frequently happening against light box counts.
Gordon has taken 18 carries with an outright favorable box count, where Oklahoma State has more blockers than defenders in the area. Only Brooks (30) has had more such opportunities among Big 12 backs. Brooks has averaged 6.9 yards with a favorable box, and the Big 12 average is 4.7 yards. Gordon, meanwhile, has averaged 2.4.
An Inexplicable Failure
Oklahoma State hasn’t gotten good quarterback play, and the offensive line has apparently taken a big step backward despite returning mostly the same players who helped Gordon break out in 2023.
But even when the conditions look most favorable for Gordon to carry the ball effectively, he’s been unable to get going. The only clear thing about the solution to this problem is that Gundy has not been able to find it.
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