Ireland and England are used to starting their Six Nations campaigns on the front foot, but who will come out on top in Dublin on Saturday? Find out in our Ireland vs England prediction as we look ahead to the big game.
Ireland come into this year’s Six Nations with aspirations of becoming the first team to win the Championship three times in a row. In fact, going beyond the Six Nations era, no side has ever won three consecutive tournaments outright. Winning more than two in a row has only been achieved when including shared titles – most recently France between 1986 and 1989 (two outright, two shared).
While Ireland may not be the bookies’ favourites, they are certainly our favourites, or at least according to the Opta supercomputer.
However, they will need to be wary of an England team who know how to stay in the fight. Last year, every one of England’s Six Nations matches was decided by single figures, proving they’re rarely out of contention in the closing stages.
England also have history of causing a shock in Dublin in Round 1, having comprehensively beaten Ireland in their 2019 opener, when the Irish were the favourites for the title.
Both Ireland and England have a history of fast starts in the Six Nations, each boasting a 72% win rate in Round 1 and winning their opening fixture 18 times. Simon Easterby and Steve Borthwick will be eager to ensure their side is the one that hits the ground running this weekend
Strengths
The lineout could be a crucial battleground in Dublin this weekend, with both teams excelling in this area. Ireland and England posted identical records in last year’s Championship, each winning 62 of 68 throws at a 91% success rate.
However, that doesn’t mean every lineout in Dublin this Saturday will be won by the throwing team. Ireland managed to win possession from 21% of their opponents’ lineouts in the tournament last year (14/67), the best rate of any team. That tally included five clean lineout steals, a joint-high alongside Scotland and their upcoming opponents England.
Weaknesses
One of England’s biggest weaknesses in the Six Nations last year was that they didn’t start games particularly well, going into half-time behind on the scoreboard in each of their five matches in the 2024 Championship.
It was the first time they’d trailed after 40 minutes in every match of a campaign since the 1974 Five Nations. They did come back to win in three of those games – the most by any team in any edition of the Championship – so their ability to come from behind means they’re never out of the contest.
However, this is generally a fixture you don’t want to trail in. Until England’s last-gasp victory in 2024, neither side had managed to overcome a half-time deficit in a match between these two nations since 1996, while there hasn’t been a second-half comeback in an Ireland vs England encounter in Dublin since 1983.
The reigning champions haven’t shown many weaknesses in the Six Nations over the last couple of years, but there were some signs of rustiness during Ireland’s Autumn Nations Series campaign.
Ireland were uncharacteristically sloppy with ball in hand, their final game of the series against Australia seeing them concede 23 turnovers – the most on record for Ireland since Opta have recorded this data.
If England’s blitz defence is well coordinated then Ireland’s handling will be put under the spotlight once again.
Fantasy Picks
Dan Sheehan was the joint top try scorer in the Men’s Six Nations last year alongside Duhan van der Merwe, who played over 100 minutes more than the Leinsterman. With Sheehan returning from an ACL injury, his sharpness this weekend remains uncertain, but he did cross for a couple of tries on his club return last weekend, making him a potential option off the bench.
Another lethal finisher who returned from injury in the same game, and is set to start against England, is James Lowe. After failing to score in his debut Six Nations campaign, the New Zealand-born winger has scored 10 tries in 13 appearances in the Championship since the beginning of 2022.
He is currently on his longest run without a try for Ireland (six games), but his last try in a green shirt came in the Six Nations against an England side he seems to enjoy facing. Lowe has scored four tries in five games against England – including three in his last two – his most against any nation.
Picking a fantasy team is all about nailing the tactics, selecting the right ‘supersub’ and finding those budget players to enable some lavish selections in other areas of the team.
If he can replicate the form he’s shown with Saracens this season, Tom Willis could tick both boxes. In the Premiership, Willis has beaten 51 defenders, surpassing a half-century before anyone else has even managed to evade 40 tackles.
He has carried the ball for 863 metres in the league this season, the most of any forward and the fifth most of any player overall. He’s also made the fourth most offloads (14), as well as a healthy 115 tackles (13th most).
Furthermore, he’s been directly involved in five tries – scoring three and providing two assists – making him a strong candidate for your fantasy team. Borthwick typically replaces his first back rower just before the hour mark, so if Willis starts ahead of Chandler Cunningham-South, he could have a 20-minute window to exploit tired opposition.
Ireland vs England Prediction
The Opta supercomputer suggests Ireland have a 68.1% chance of beating England this weekend. But with England’s chances sitting at 31%, they could well spring a surprise in Dublin.
The supercomputer predicts Easterby’s side will win 27-19, with England falling just short of the losing bonus point.
Ireland vs England Lineups
Ireland
15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Garry Ringrose, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park; 1 Andrew Porter, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 3 Finlay Bealham, 4 James Ryan, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 6 Ryan Baird, 7 Josh van der Flier, 8 Caelan Doris (c)
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Thomas Clarkson,19 Iain Henderson, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Robbie Henshaw
England
15 Freddie Steward, 14 Tommy Freeman, 13 Ollie Lawrence, 12 Henry Slade, 11 Cadan Murley, 10 Marcus Smith, 9 Alex Mitchell; 1 Ellis Genge, 2 Luke Cowan-Dickie, 3 Will Stuart, 4 Maro Itoje (c) 5 George Martin, 6 Tom Curry, 7 Ben Curry, 8 Ben Earl.
Replacements: 16 Theo Dan, 17 Fin Baxter, 18 Joe Heyes, 19 Ollie Chessum, 20 Chandler Cunningham-South, 21 Tom Willis, 22 Harry Randall, 23 Fin Smith
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