Is a Daytona 500 win guaranteed by Lady Luck or strategy?

Three of the last Daytona 500s have been won by drivers who didn’t win another race during the year, and those almost always ended in calamity. Some criticize the modern 500 wins as a result of a randomized lottery, but is that really a fair claim? 

The ‘Big One’ has only gotten bigger and more common in this modern day and age, but I still can’t bring myself to call it a lottery as some do. Yes, luck plays a significant role in the current era of the Daytona 500 and the drafting package isn’t ideal, but like Joey Logano often says, you can make your own luck a lot of the time.

There are still the expected contenders who are skillful at this style of racing and are always near the front. We know names like Denny Hamlin, Logano, and Brad Keselowski will find their way to the lead in the same way we knew to expect Earnhardt, Jarrett, and Gordon back in the day. The problem is, today’s top drivers don’t always see the end of the race.

That’s where the idea of it being more of lottery than a race is taking hold. The chances of a race-ending ‘Big One’ crash are much higher than they once were, thanks to the tightly packed fields, thus opening the door for long-shots to take the trophy. The ambitious driver who led the most laps, crashed his way to a DNF in the last two 500s. In contrast, the average number of laps led by the eventual winner (in the last four races) is just nine.

While all that is true, these drivers know the nature of these races and take calculated risks throughout the event from which line they should go in, what hole they should fill, and what pass is worth it. Some even choose to ride in the back and wait out the storm while others are dicing three-wide for the lead from green to the checkered flag. It’s all a risk versus reward decision, and while yes, misfortune can strike in the strangest of ways, that’s just part of racing. Dale Earnhardt did everything right in 1990, but a last-lap tire failure robbed him of victory. It’s not as spectacular as being taken out in a 23-car pileup like many contenders were last year, but it’s still plain old bad luck.

During the 2024 Daytona 500, Ross Chastain was running near the back of the lead pack late in the race when he suddenly appeared in the lead after the final set of stops. Deciding to ‘ride,’ resulted in saving more fuel which allowed for a quicker stop. William Byron won because he threw a calculated block and Chastain made a wildly bold move up the middle in a gamble that did not pay off. It ended his shot and ultimately, the race, but that was a decision he chose to make. The only true luck in all of this was the timing of the caution. If NASCAR had waited another second or two to push the button, Alex Bowman would likely be the defending winner of the 500 for 2025. (Hence also why I think NASCAR should be trying harder to let these drivers race back to the line on the final lap unless it’s truly unavoidable.) 

We can debate all day about the old 500 being the better version of this race and I wouldn’t disagree. I love watching videos of those drivers wheeling their cars around this bumpy 2.5-mile superspeedway, sawing on the wheel. But three-wide, ten rows deep is pretty fun to watch as well. The wrecks are bigger and the winners can be more ‘random’ than in the past. But also important to remember is that these winners weren’t pulled out of a hat. They still managed to navigate 200 laps around Daytona, avoiding many pitfalls while putting themselves in a position to win at the end. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. in 2023 and Michael McDowell in 2021 were surprise winners, but they are also known as above-average pack racers. They knew what they were doing and positioned themselves perfectly for the end of the race. So yes, it’s not the same 500 your father watched, but it’s still a high-speed chess match where skill and luck play equal roles.