Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight standouts Israel Adesanya vs. Nassourdine Imavov will clash TONIGHT (Sat., Feb. 1, 2025) at UFC Saudi Arabia from anb Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
“Stylebender” has been atop the Middleweight heap for a long while. He rose to the title quickly and defended it actively, producing an incredible few years of championship accolades. Unfortunately, the pace seemingly caught up to the 35-year-old kickboxer, who lost his title in an uninspired loss to Sean Strickland. He brought a bit more fire to his last bout versus current kingpin Dricus Du Plessis, but the end result was still consecutive losses.
The road doesn’t grow much easier for the former champion. 29-year-old Imavov has the skills and experience of a future champion, and he’s only still entering his prime. He’s a difficult fight for anyone in the division, the furthest thing from a softball rebound opponent.
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Adesanya vs. Imavov Betting Odds
- Israel Adesanya victory: -162
- Israel Adesanya via TKO/KO/DQ: +330
- Israel Adesanya via submission: +2500
- Israel Adesanya via decision: +130
- Nassourdine Imavov victory: +136
- Nassourdine Imavov via TKO/KO/DQ: +600
- Nassourdine Imavov via submission: +900
- Nassourdine Imavov via decision: +300
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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How Adesanya Wins
Adesanya is an expert range striker. His ability to control distance, break his foe down with kicks, and walk them into counters made him a champion. Over the years, however, we’ve watched as Adesanya has used fewer of his previous tools and grown a bit more limited on the feet.
Fortunately, Imavov isn’t a wildly varied striker either. He’s a sniper like Adesanya, a precise distance striker with a lovely jab. The priority for Adesanya then should be taking away that jab. There are a million ways to counter the jab, but in the past Adesanya has successfully used right low kicks, Southpaw hand-fighting, and body shots under the punch.
The other element of attack that may come into play from Imavov is the wrestling. Generally, Adesanya’s takedown defense has held up quite well over his career, but he does have a habit of turning his back to stand. Imavov is definitely a solid backpack, so Adesanya will have to be wary in the grappling exchanges about controlling a hand if he does turn away to build a base.
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How Imavov Wins
Imavov has some of the best boxing at 185-pounds. His jab is punishing, and he fires crisp combinations down the middle once he’s really found his range. Early in his UFC career, wrestling felt like a liability, but now Imavov has taken down and outworked some really solid competition at just 29 years of age.
Skill-wise, I’m not sure Imavov has any major advantages here other than offensive wrestling, which outright doesn’t like enough to overcome Adesanya’s takedown defense. Really, his big advantage is being six years younger with less wear-and-tear on his mind and body.
Last time out, Adesanya faded against Dricus Du Plessis’ mad barrage. He had big moments, but when he was fatigued and got clipped late, he shut down like older fighters are wont to do. Imavov’s best chance at victory is pushing the pace hard and aiming for a grueling fight. As the younger man, he’s going to recover more between rounds and wear the damage better, meaning any advantages and openings he find will grow over time.
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Adesanya vs. Imavov Prediction
I’m not willing to write off “Stylebender” just yet.
Generally, I thought Adesanya performed rather well against “DDP” even if it was clear his physical peak is in the past. Skill-wise, he still showed some great combination work and heavy kicks. Imavov’s go-to style — working behind the jab, building his offense slowly — plays into Adesanya’s preferred approach as well, but Adesanya is better at it. The question is whether Imavov can flip the script with his wrestling or pure pace, but neither of those options feel like a recipe for success over 25 minutes.
Put simply, Du Plessis is the best berserker in the division, and he still went through hell to wear down Adesanya. I’m not confident Imavov has the grit or the skill set to replicate his success.
Prediction: Adesanya via decision (+130)
