Have the Brumbies hit their ceiling?
The Canberra side enters the 2025 season with a lot of question marks – what does the side need to do to progress past a Super Rugby semi-final? How will their recent partnership with Rugby Australia affect results on and off the pitch? Can they finally get the crowds back?
How will they fare now they face a condensed Australian landscape, with all sides – especially the Reds and Waratahs, looking to usurp them as the best Australian side? Is Stephen Larkham able to get this side to a title – and will that affect his prospects as a potential Wallaby coach?
These questions will be answered in due course, but it’s fair to say that, at least in a rugby sense, the Brumbies have good reason to still be considered one of the competition’s heavyweights – coming in with arguably the most settled side of any team either side of the Tasman.
Player buy-in, systems and processes are firmly established as Bernie enters his third season at the helm, and with minimal player movements from last year, squad stability is also strong.
The 2024 season saw the side rapidly improve their defence, which proved their most effective weapon. The side conceded 311 points, (equal third-best in the competition), while also maintaining a strong attack – scoring 60 tries (fifth-most), achieving 86 clean breaks (fifth-most), and winning 97% of their rucks (equal first) – all while also holding onto their traditional set piece strengths, winning 87.1% of their lineouts (fourth best).
It was helped that the side additionally developed an extra weapon to their attack, with long-range counterattack capabilities exponentially increased by the likes of Tom Wright and Corey Toole – who both finished in the top ten try scorers for the season.
However, two sides were able to beat the Brumbies last year: the eventual finalists, the Chiefs and Blues – and when the Brumbies lost, they lost hard.
These two Kiwi sides identified two key areas – targeting the physical contest (especially the ruck) in general play, and stifling momentum at key parts of the set piece – especially the scrum.
The Brumbies fell at the semi-final hurdle again for the third time in three years. (Photo by Phil Walter/Getty Images)
While most sides couldn’t compete against the Brumbies lineout, these two targets proved more obvious when looking at the data – the Brumbies winning only 83.3% of their tackles (second worst in the competition), and stunningly, won only 73% of their scrums – the worst in the competition.
Even worse, once the Brumbies were targeted here, the side struggled to have a backup strategy to wrestle back momentum – and the result was landslide losses.
These are issues Larkham is going to have to address – and he does have the benefit of an additional year with the squad to figure out a way to resolve these weaknesses.
They will be bolstered by 14 Wallabies in the squad, plus Tongan international Feao Fotuaika also signing up to plug up the scrum depth.
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While their big enforcer in Rob Valetini is a major loss for the opening rounds, the side will likely need several big lads to lead the physical brunt for the side and win those contests – which will mean Luke Reimer, Charlie Cale, Nick Frost and Tom Hooper are going to likely prove critical for the team at large this year.
The scrum remains a big concern. While Alan Alaalatoa will likely start as captain, and Rhys Van Nek and Fotuaika remain strong backup options, the side is lighter in experience in the front row, and is at risk should any injuries occur.
With a challenging season run – especially at the start of the season – Larkham will need to hope that his strategies and forward pack will be resilient enough to weather several tough back-to-back clashes.
Season run:
Drua (A), Force (H), Chiefs (A), Blues (A), Drua (H), Waratahs (A), Highlanders (H), Bye, Reds (A), Moana Pasifika (A), Hurricanes (H), Waratahs (H), Force (A), Reds (H), Bye, Crusaders (H)
There are no two ways about it: the Brumbies likely have the hardest start of anyone in the whole competition this year. Three away matches in the opening four weeks – a trip to Fiji, and the two finalists in back-to-back weeks in New Zealand. That is a rough start.
The Drua have also frequently made a game of it in Canberra, and the potential banana skin that is the Waratahs in Sydney also offers up a challenge. The matches against the Force and Highlanders at home are welcome inclusions.
After the bye they will face one of their toughest challenges in the Reds at Suncorp – with the Queensland side their nearest competition, and who also will enjoy a much easier start to the season. Both sides will target this match – though a tough run could really battle harden the Brumbies in terms of match intensity.
Regardless, their run home is a favourable one, with four of their final five games at home. They boast a good record against the Hurricanes at home, as well as beating the Crusaders last year for the first time in a long time. They will likely also be favourites for most of the other matches at the backend of the season.
Stephen Larkham. (Photo by Joe Allison/Getty Images)
How they perform at the start of the season, in effect, is critical.
If they can maintain form and even grab a few wins on the road, the run home could see the Brumbies in the running for the top of the table. The Aussie derbies will be critical, particularly between the Reds and Waratahs.
It has been noted by several pundits that Larkham took the opportunity during the trials to give much of the extended squad a run – but given the draw ahead, he is likely going to have to dig deep into the squad to finally break the 21-year drought in Canberra.
This year, the Brumbies have a lot stacked against them: Australian sides closing the gap, questions around the scrum, and an unfavourable draw.
All this combined should see them be finally caught by either the Waratahs or Reds – but even so, they are still a strong team in Super Rugby Pacific, and don’t be surprised if they are still in the mix come finals, once again.
Prediction: 4th
