At the 10-game mark, we look at Opta’s expected points table in an attempt to work out a truer story of the League Two season so far than the actual table might tell us.
With most teams having played a nice, round 10 games, this point of the season is the perfect opportunity to step back and take a look at how League Two is shaping up.
It might be early days, but the table is still starting to tell us how the season is going. That said, it doesn’t quite paint an entirely accurate picture.
With that in mind, we’ve looked at the 24 teams’ underlying numbers in 2024-25 to try to tell the real story of the season, using expected points to show how the table ‘should’ really look.
Our expected points model simulates the number of goals scored by each side in each match based on the expected goals (xG) value of every shot taken. It then uses the simulated number of goals to determine the match outcome (win/draw/loss). Each match is then simulated 10,000 times. The expected points for each team in each match can then be calculated based on the proportion of simulations they win/draw/lose.
In other words, by looking at how many chances each team has created and conceded, and the quality of those chances, we can ascertain which sides have been performing better – or worse – than the actual league table suggests.
It’s not an exact science, as expected goals data doesn’t include a lot of factors, such as game state and dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots. Also, given we are only 10 games into the season, everyone has played different opponents, so it is in some sense unfair to compare each team’s underlying numbers. However, this exercise can still give us a good guide as to how much we can read into the actual league table as it currently stands.
So, which teams find themselves with fewer points than their underlying numbers suggest they deserve, and whose season so far is built on weaker foundations than their league positions suggests?
Walsall are top of the league at present, and deservedly so according to our expected points model. They have 19 points in reality and are top on goals scored, but their underlying numbers give them 21.4 expected points and a lead of more than three points.
With the highest expected goals total in League Two (20.4) and the largest positive expected goals difference (+11.0), they fully warrant their position on top of the pile.
Beneath them, things aren’t quite so simple.
Gillingham are second in the table with six wins and a draw from 10 games, but our expected points model suggests they should be all the way down in 14th.
They have scored just 12 goals, which is fewer than 12 of the other 23 teams, with their success largely based on their defence; they have conceded a league-low five goals in 10 games.
However, they have conceded chances worth 13.1 xG, suggesting poor finishing from their opponents and high-quality shot-stopping from 40-year-old goalkeeper Glenn Morris have saved them more than a particularly sturdy defence.
The data suggests they’ll need to shore things up if they are to maintain their lofty position in the automatic promotion spots.
Third-placed Barrow are level on points with both Walsall and Gillingham, as well as fourth-placed Doncaster, but they too are doing rather better than their underlying numbers suggest they might be. Our expected points model has Barrow down in ninth, with 14.2 points rather than 19.
Doncaster have been picking up points at roughly the same rate as they ‘should’ be, but the numbers posted by Gillingham and Barrow mean they leapfrog them into second in the expected points table. Having finished last season very strongly, they have momentum on their side and look good value for their position.
League Two’s biggest underachievers so far in 2024-25 – the team who are the most positions lower than the expected points model suggests they should be – are MK Dons, who are currently 14th but ‘should’ be all the way up in fourth.
Having been widely tipped for promotion, they endured some woefully disappointing results in the early part of the season, but they are unbeaten since manager Mike Williamson left for Carlisle and was replaced by Scott Lindsey, with results perhaps better reflecting their performances. They’ll hope the recent 5-1 win at Harrogate Town was a sign of things to come.
Chesterfield also appear to have played better than their actual position of 12th suggests, with a position of sixth in our expected points table, while the reverse is true of Fleetwood, who are seventh but deserve to be 12th.
Meanwhile, there are a handful of teams in mid-table who should perhaps be looking anxiously over their shoulders.
Newport County are 10th but sit 20th in the expected points table, having overperformed their expected goals (10.1) to a greater degree (+5.9) than any other team in the league, with 16 goals scored. At the other end of the pitch, they have the worst defensive record in the division, having conceded 20 goals in 10 games.
Just beneath them are Grimsby Town in 11th, but the underlying numbers from their games suggest they should in fact be 18th.
Slightly further down the table, Salford City (currently 15th), Harrogate Town (18th) and Tranmere Rovers (17th) could have reason to be worried. Those three occupy the bottom three positions in the expected points table.
Salford have managed just six goals this season, and Tranmere have scored even fewer, with five. Those two teams also possess the lowest xG totals in League Two this season (Salford 5.6 xG; Tranmere 6.2 xG). Harrogate, meanwhile, have the worst negative expected goals difference in the league (-8.4), suggesting they are being dominated more than any other team.
The bottom four teams in the league – Swindon, Carlisle, Accrington and Morecambe – are all much higher in the expected points table than actual their league position. There is particular reason for optimism for Swindon (21st) and Carlisle (22nd), who ‘should’ in fact be 10th and 11th. Both teams should have closer to 14 points rather than the eight and seven they respectively have at present.
So, there you have it: the true story of the League Two season so far.
But before you start celebrating too much or preparing yourself for the worst, remember there’s an awfully long way to go.
And also that it’s the real table that actually matters.
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