We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs Manchester United prediction and preview. Will the Reds pile the misery on their rivals?
Liverpool vs Man Utd Stats: The Key Insights
- Liverpool are heavy favourites, with a win probability of 70.6% according to the Opta supercomputer.
- Manchester United have not won any of their last eight league away games to Liverpool.
- This is the first time Liverpool and Man Utd are facing each other in their first league match of a calendar year since 1989.
It was a December to forget for Manchester United and their new boss Ruben Amorim, and their hopes of starting 2025 on the right foot are severely hampered by a daunting trip to Anfield for their first fixture of the year.
Premier League leaders Liverpool head into the weekend six points clear at the summit and with a game in hand over second-place Arsenal, but a whopping 23 points ahead of their old rivals from down the East Lancs Road. United are floundering in 14th after Monday’s 2-0 home loss to Newcastle United, with questions more about fighting relegation than for titles.
In Premier League history, four teams who were 14th at the turn of a year have gone on to be relegated – Newcastle (2008-09), Burnley (2009-10), Norwich City (2013-14) and Leeds United (2022-23) – and Amorim warned his players they could be in a relegation scrap if they do not snap out of their form from last month, when they lost six games across all competitions. That is the most matches they have lost in a single month since they suffered seven defeats way back in September 1930.
United have lost their last three Premier League games. They have not lost four league games in a row in the same season since between December and February 1979, while they last suffered four defeats in a row without scoring in April 1909.
Liverpool, on the other hand, have won their last three Premier League matches, scoring 3+ goals in each victory, with 14 goals in total. They last had a longer winning run while scoring three or more goals in each match in February/March 2014 (6 in a row). Their six league matches last month saw them score 21 times, three more than any other team in the competition.
Arne Slot’s Reds are in fearsome form, spearheaded by the sensational Mohamed Salah, who recorded 14 Premier League goal involvements (7 goals, 7 assists) in December – four more than any other player (Alexander Isak, 10).
Despite the uncertainty over his future, Salah is arguably in the form of his career. He had a hand in 39 Premier League goals across 2024, scoring 23 and assisting 16. In a calendar year, only Salah himself has previously registered more goal involvements for the Reds in the history of the competition (2018 – 28 goals, 12 assists). Trent Alexander-Arnold, meanwhile, is the only player to have provided more Premier League assists (17 in 2019) for Liverpool in a calendar year than Salah’s 16 in 2024.
The Egyptian has been involved in 30 Premier League goals this season (17 goals, 13 assists), scoring and assisting in eight different games, which is already the most ever by a player in a single campaign. It is the fifth time he has recorded 30+ goal involvements in a season (also 2017-18, 2018-19, 2021-22 and 2022-23), the joint most of any player in Premier League history along with Alan Shearer.
He also has a remarkable record against United, having both scored more goals (12) and provided more assists (6) against the Red Devils than any other player in Premier League history.
But it’s not just Salah who is shining for Liverpool. Luis Díaz and Cody Gakpo are also in good form, having scored 12 and 11 goals respectively this season, while Diogo Jota recently returned from injury and scored in the 5-0 win over West Ham last time out. Alexander-Arnold has made headlines this week amid speculation of a potential move to Real Madrid, but is another thriving in Slot’s well-oiled machine.
Amorim, then, may well have his work cut out as he looks to get United back on track. He does at least have their surprise victory in the Manchester derby to lean on as evidence that his team can come up with the goods in a big away game.
But if they are to snatch a positive result, United must tighten up at the back. They shipped 18 goals in all competitions in December, their most in a single month since March 1964 (18).
One good omen for United is that Liverpool – who beat Newcastle 4-2 in their first outing of 2024 – have not won their opening league game in consecutive years since 2013-2014.
In terms of team news, Liverpool will be without Joe Gomez after he suffered a hamstring issue against West Ham, though Slot confirmed injured duo Conor Bradley and Ibrahima Konaté were set to return to team training on Friday.
Marcus Rashford will be missing through illness, but United have Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte back from suspension for the trip to Anfield. Mason Mount, Victor Lindelöf and Luke Shaw remain sidelined through injury.
Liverpool vs Man Utd Head-to-Head
This is the first time Liverpool and Manchester United are facing each other in their first league match of a calendar year since 1989, when the Red Devils won 3-1 at Old Trafford on New Year’s Day.
United have scored just one goal in their last eight Premier League away games against Liverpool, failing to score in each of the last five. Only at Everton have they had a longer run without scoring in their league history (6 between 1969 and 1974).
United have not won any of their last eight league away games against Liverpool (D4 L4), their longest such run since failing to win any of nine meetings at Anfield between 1970 and 1979.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League games against United (W7 D5), going down 2-1 at Old Trafford in August 2022.
Following the Reds’ 3-0 win at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture in September, Slot could become just the second Liverpool boss to do the league double over United in his first season with the club, after George Kay in 1936-37.
Liverpool vs Man Utd Prediction
Given the form guide and Liverpool’s recent dominance in this fixture, it’s no surprise to see the Opta supercomputer back the Reds heavily for this one.
Liverpool came out on top in 70.6% of the model’s data-led simulations, while United are given just a 12.7% chance of victory. The likelihood of a draw is 16.7%.
Liverpool vs Man Utd Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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