Tottenham take a slender lead into the second leg of their League Cup semi-final against Liverpool, but can they hold on to it in front of a raucous Anfield crowd? We look ahead to the game with our Liverpool vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights
- Despite trailing in the tie, Liverpool remain favourites to make it through to the EFL Cup final, progressing to Wembley in 61.3% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations.
- Liverpool have lost just one of their last 27 home games against Tottenham in all competitions (W19 D7), and are unbeaten in 14 (W10 D4) since a 2-0 loss in May 2011.
- Liverpool have progressed to the final on two of the last three occasions they’ve lost the first leg of a League Cup semi-final, doing so against Crystal Palace in 2000-01 and Sheffield United in 2002-03.
Tottenham Hotspur are one game away from reaching their ninth League Cup final and their first since 2020-21, where they ultimately lost to Manchester City. Their League Cup triumph in 2007-08 remains the last time they won a trophy.
Spurs hold a slender 1-0 advantage heading into their decisive away leg against Liverpool. Lucas Bergvall scored the winner in the first leg, sweeping home from inside the box in the closing stages in north London. The Swedish youngster could become the first Spurs player to score in both legs of a League Cup semi-final since Roman Pavlyuchenko in 2008-09.
Bergvall was arguably lucky to still be on the pitch when he scored, though, fortunate not to receive a second yellow card for a late challenge on Kostas Tsimikas. His winner made him the youngest Spurs player (18y 341d) to score in the League Cup since Gareth Bale in September 2007 (18y 72d vs Middlesbrough).
Despite trailing on aggregate, Liverpool will be very confident of overturning the one-goal deficit on Thursday. Since losing to Nottingham Forest in September, they are unbeaten in 15 games at home in all competitions, scoring at least twice in each of those matches. They’ve also progressed to the final on two of the last three occasions they’ve lost the first leg of a League Cup semi-final, doing so against Crystal Palace in 2000-01 and Sheffield United in 2002-03.
Mohamed Salah was once again the hero for Liverpool last weekend as they overcame a high-quality Bournemouth side to strengthen their grip at the top of the Premier League.
Salah scored a brace – a penalty and a beautiful curled effort 15 minutes from time – to seal the win. The Egyptian has been involved in nine goals in his last six appearances against Tottenham in all competitions, scoring six and assisting three, and will be a key threat once again.
Spurs, meanwhile, secured an impressive away win at Brentford in their last game, their first victory in the Premier League in seven matches. It was by no means a comfortable win, though, with Brentford attempting 20 shots and registering 2.29 xG – both were their highest totals in a Premier League game where they failed to score. Yet Spurs held on, and they will look to take that defensive resilience to Anfield.
They’ll need it, as their recent record away to Liverpool is poor. Tottenham have not won a fixture there since 2011 – a 2-0 victory towards the end of the season – failing in 14 attempts (D4 L11). That said, they have remained competitive in those fixtures, with only four of those defeats coming by a margin of more than one goal.
Liverpool will be without Trent Alexander-Arnold, who was substituted at Bournemouth and has been ruled out for this fixture. Conor Bradley is expected to deputise at right-back. Joe Gomez is Liverpool’s only other absentee, meaning Arne Slot’s side are close to full strength.
The same can certainly not be said for the visitors. Spurs were hit with yet another injury blow at Brentford at the weekend, with Radu Dragusin ruled out for the season with an ACL injury.
First-team regulars Destiny Udogie, Guglielmo Vicario, and Brennan Johnson are nearing a return but will not be available for this match. Micky van de Ven has also been ruled out by Ange Postecoglou. Cristian Romero and Dominic Solanke remain long-term absentees. New signings Mathys Tel and Kevin Danso, however, are fit and available.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Liverpool have lost just one of their last 27 home games against Tottenham in all competitions (W19 D7), and are unbeaten in 14 (W10 D4) since a 2-0 loss in May 2011.
Tottenham are looking to beat Liverpool twice in the same season for the first time since 2010-11, when they did the double over them in the Premier League.
Liverpool vs Tottenham Prediction
Liverpool are strong favourites to win this match inside 90 minutes according to the Opta supercomputer, winning on the night in 73.3% of the pre-game simulations. Tottenham won or drew inside 90 minutes in 26.7% of simulations, with either result enough to take them to the final at Wembley.
When factoring in extra-time and penalties, the Opta supercomputer sees Liverpool reach the EFL Cup final in 61.3% of simulations, while Tottenham progress 38.7% of the time.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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