We look ahead to Sunday’s mammoth Premier League clash at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Liverpool prediction and preview. Can Pep Guardiola’s champions frustrate the Reds’ title bid?
Man City vs Liverpool Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool favourites with a 40.5% win probability, compared to 35.0% for Manchester City.
- Following their 2-0 win at Anfield in December, Liverpool could complete the Premier League double over Man City for just the third time (after 2005-06 and 2015-16).
- Mohamed Salah has been involved in more Premier League goals against Pep Guardiola’s City (since 2016-17) than any other player (13 – eight goals, five assists).
Following Wednesday’s 2-2 draw with Aston Villa, Liverpool’s lead over Premier League title rivals Arsenal stands at eight points, with the Reds having played one additional game.
But with the Gunners hosting out-of-form West Ham on Saturday, Arne Slot will expect that gap to be cut before the leaders return to action on Sunday, when they visit Manchester City for one of their toughest remaining fixtures.
Liverpool’s midweek draw was their second in their last three Premier League games, following James Tarkowski’s stoppage-time heroics in the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park.
They are still overwhelming favourites to win the title, with the Opta supercomputer giving them an 84.7% chance of topping the pile. However, Arsenal’s title hopes have increased from just 7.1% earlier this month to 15.2% in the latest set of predictions, suggesting momentum may be on the Gunners’ side.
One may argue it should have been three straight draws for Liverpool, who were left clinging on in last week’s 2-1 win over Wolves at Anfield. In the second half of that game, the Reds failed to attempt a single shot and faced 10 – it was the first time on record (since 2003-04) they had played a full half of Premier League football without having a shot.
Liverpool have only had fewer shots than their opponents in four Premier League games all season, and two of those instances have come in their last three outings (10-16 versus Wolves, 6-10 against Everton).
They created plenty of opportunities at Villa Park, winning the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.51 to 0.67 but failed to take their chances, with substitute Darwin Núñez blazing over when presented with a chance worth 0.75 xG in the 69th minute.
Slot’s team have definitely been hampered by the absence of Cody Gakpo, who limped off at Everton and is still a doubt for Sunday’s game. Gakpo ranks second among all Liverpool players (behind Salah) for goals (16), total goal involvements (21) and shots attempted (72) in all competitions this season.
Salah recorded a goal and an assist against Villa, the 10th different Premier League game in which he has done so in 2024-25. His goal involvements have been worth a massive 31 points to Liverpool this season, the most by any player in a Premier League campaign since Jamie Vardy for Leicester City in their 2015-16 title triumph (32).
The Egyptian also has more Premier League goal involvements against Guardiola’s City than any other player (13 – eight goals, five assists). Only Steven Gerrard (14) has more against the Citizens in Premier League history.
City are looking to bounce back following Wednesday’s meek 3-1 UEFA Champions League defeat to Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabéu, as Kylian Mbappé‘s hat-trick condemned Guardiola to his first Champions League elimination before the round of 16, in his 16th campaign in the competition.
In the Premier League, however, City have turned a corner. Since Christmas, only Liverpool and Arsenal have won more points than them (17 – five wins, two draws, one loss). They only took four points from their eight games before that run (one win, one draw, six defeats).
Last week’s 4-0 demolition of Newcastle United was closer to what we have come to expect from City in recent years. They handed a league debut to the player Guardiola has since described as a “mini-Rodri” – former Porto midfielder Nico González.
González completed 100 passes against Newcastle, the second-most by a midfielder on their Premier League debut on record (since 2003-04). He also made a team-high three tackles and won four of his five duels, while City’s heightened level of control was evident from the fact it was their first league game this season in which they did not face a single big chance.
Fellow January recruit Omar Marmoush scored a 33-minute hat-trick against the Magpies – the second-fastest ever scored by a City player in the Premier League after Kevin De Bruyne’s 24-minute treble at Wolves in May 2022.
Neither González nor Marmoush had the desired impact against Madrid in midweek, though they did combine for a late consolation goal, the former tapping home when the latter rattled the woodwork from a free-kick.
But with City one of five Champions League hopefuls separated by just six points ahead of Matchday 26, they have plenty to play for. Liverpool will take this game lightly at their peril.
Man City vs Liverpool Head-to-Head
Following their 2-0 win in December’s return fixture at Anfield, Liverpool are looking to complete the Premier League double over City for just the third time, previously doing so in 2005-06 and 2015-16.
The Reds have achieved the Premier League double over the reigning champions on six previous occasions – more than any other club in the competition’s history.
They did so against Blackburn Rovers in 1995-96, Manchester United in 2000-01, 2001-02, 2008-09 and 2013-14, and Chelsea in 2010-11.
However, City have lost just one of their last 15 Premier League home games against Liverpool (eight wins, four draws), going down 4-1 in November 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini.
Man City vs Liverpool Prediction
While the Opta supercomputer makes Liverpool favourites for Sunday’s heavyweight clash, it is deemed more likely than not that they will drop points in the title race.
Liverpool were victorious in 40.5% of the supercomputer’s pre-match simulations, with City winning 35.0% and earning a point in 24.5%.
While the Reds are still favoured to land their 20th top-flight crown, City are favoured to salvage Champions League qualification from an underwhelming campaign.
In the supercomputer’s 2024-25 season predictions, they finish third in a league-high 54.4% of scenarios, only missing out on the top four in 20.4% of scenarios.
Man City vs Liverpool Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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