We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Newcastle prediction and preview. Can Pep Guardiola get his team back on track?
Man City vs Newcastle Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester City are the favourites to get back to winning ways, with a 49% chance of taking home all three points.
- Man City have lost just one their last 34 Premier League games against Newcastle (W27 D6).
- Newcastle United have won each of their last four Premier League games on the road.
Manchester City welcome Newcastle United to the Etihad Stadium on Saturday, with both teams looking for a win that will help them keep the pressure on the Premier League’s top four.
City’s recent results have raised questions once more; their 5-1 humbling by Arsenal last time out in the league (their heaviest away loss in the competition since January 2017) was followed by them blowing a lead in a 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League on Wednesday.
Though Pep Guardiola’s side came from behind to beat Leyton Orient in the FA Cup between those two matches, it is not a result that helped to instil much confidence, especially with Newcastle next up.
A quick start for the Magpies could set the tone of the game. Only West Ham (9) have conceded more goals in the opening 10 minutes of Premier League matches this season than City (7).
In fact, City have conceded inside the opening three minutes in back-to-back Premier League games (1:43 v Arsenal, 02:04 v Chelsea) for the first time since doing so in January 2003 against Newcastle and Fulham.
And with City involved in the game, goals are almost guaranteed.
City have scored in each of their last 32 Premier League games against Newcastle – only three teams have ever had a longer such scoring streak in English top-flight history, with two of those coming against the Magpies.
On the other hand, the Citizens have conceded 57 goals in 38 games in all competitions this term, three more than they did in 59 matches last season. Under Guardiola, they have only conceded more in 2016-17 (60).
Only in 2019-20 (37.6) and 2023-24 (35.9) have City had a higher expected goals against total in a Premier League season under the Spaniard than in 2024-25 (34.6), while their xG per shot faced is the highest of any top-flight campaign since his arrival in 2016-17 (0.14 xG per shot faced).
Newcastle still have work to do if they want to leapfrog their opponents, though. They have historically struggled at the Etihad, but their away form has been a bright spot in recent weeks.
Eddie Howe’s side have won each of their last four Premier League games on the road. Only once before have they won five in a row, though that was all the way back in October 1994.
But if City want to prevent that streak from extending, they will have to stop in-form Alexander Isak. The Swede has scored in each of his last five consecutive Premier League away appearances, the first Newcastle player to do so.
Jack Grealish was withdrawn from the game against Real Madrid with injury so looks set to miss this one for City, joining Manuel Akanji and Rodri on the sidelines. Newcastle will hope that Anthony Gordon will be fit enough to play following a thigh injury. Gordon was their goalscorer in the 1-1 draw at St James’ Park earlier this season.
Man City vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
Man City have lost just one of their last 34 Premier League games against Newcastle (W27 D6), going down 2-1 at St James’ Park in January 2019.
Their home form against them is truly formidable though, having won their last 15 Premier League games against the Magpies on home soil, with only three teams ever having longer such winning runs against a single opponent.
During that run, Newcastle have failed to score in any of their last five trips to the Etihad. Overall, they’re winless in 20 away league games against the Citizens (D2 L18) since a 1-0 win at Maine Road in September 2000.
Man City vs Newcastle Prediction
Despite their recent struggles, Man City are expected to get back to winning ways on Saturday, coming out on top in 49% of the Opta supercomputer‘s 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Newcastle, meanwhile, won 28% of those, with a draw the least likely outcome at 23%.
Man City vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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