What will convince players to sign on the dotted line? And what will the numbers look like on that contract? We rank the MLB free agents available this offseason.
Another winter of MLB hot stove intrigue is upon us.
Headlined by Juan Soto and a barrage of starting pitchers, the class will require teams to make a host of calculations about who has the most impact to offer.
That’s exactly how we will be ranking the top 25 free agents available in Major League Baseball this offseason. It’s not about the total amount of money they will earn, but how much they might matter in the timeframe they are likely to play for their new teams.
All of these players are appealing. But when push comes to shove, what is the argument that will convince team executives to sign on the dotted line? And what will the numbers look like on that contract?
Let’s rank MLB’s most promising free agents.
1. Juan Soto, OF
Why you want him: You just can’t go out and get a surefire top-five hitter in baseball at age 26. Except for right now.
The plate-discipline god leads all qualified hitters with a .421 on-base percentage since his debut in 2018, and almost unbelievable display of hitting savvy from a young hitter. That’s the base of his .953 career OPS, which is fourth among qualified hitters in that span.
He has serious postseason bonafides, including a ring with the Washington Nationals in 2019, and has missed a grand total of 40 of his teams’ games in the last six regular seasons. With his prime still stretching out in front of him, Soto is as foolproof a franchise player as we’ve ever seen reach free agency.
What it will take: Something historic. He could land something in the realm of 12 years and $600 million, which would likely overtake Shohei Ohtani’s heavily deferred deal for the richest in baseball by present-day value.
2. Corbin Burnes, RHP
Why you want him: The cutter maestro who won the 2021 NL Cy Young with the Milwaukee Brewers joined the Baltimore Orioles in a blockbuster deal last winter and held up his end of the bargain, capping a sterling half decade with 2.92 ERA across 32 starts and 194.1 innings. His 76 raw value- (RV-) ranked fifth among qualified pitchers.
Over the past five seasons, Burnes has the fourth-best ERA among starters and the second-most innings. Really, only one pitcher rivals him for the title of most productive pitcher in baseball (the Philadelphia Phillies’ Zack Wheeler).
His strikeout rate has dipped precipitously from his award-winning heyday, largely because of how he deploys his trademark cutter – more for weak contact than for whiffs – yet his velocity was up slightly in 2024. It’s a less dominant profile than it was a few years ago, which will lead to some hand-wringing that is unfortunately always justified when starting pitchers cross over into their 30s. Still, there’s no way of reading into Burnes without concluding he’s still one of the best in baseball.
What it will take: The 30-year-old right-hander is reaching the market a year older than Gerrit Cole and with a few more warning signs of decline. He won’t touch the nine-year, $324 million bar for long-term MLB veteran deals, but he could target an average annual value that tops Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s stretched-out deal with the Dodgers. Expect Burnes to seek $28 million per year or more, which could take him toward the $200 mark over seven seasons.
3. Roki Sasaki, RHP
Why you want him: There’s a non-negligible chance Sasaki goes full Jacob deGrom during the team control years of the franchise that signs him. Oh right, because the 23-year-old right-hander is making the jump from Japan before turning 25, he will be limited to an amateur-style minor-league deal with “team control years” a la Shohei Ohtani’s arrival with the Los Angeles Angels.
The stuff can be otherworldly, as demonstrated in a 19-strikeout perfect game and 8.0 perfect innings in back-to-back starts that flung him onto the wider world’s radar in 2022. It’s a fastball that has averaged 99 mph and touched 101. It’s a splitter that gets whiffs on more than half the swings batters take. But you’ll notice the hedging in that assessment – can be, has. Sasaki suffered seriously diminished stuff in 2024 amid arm issues that The Athletic reported as “shoulder fatigue,” which is among the more concerning pitcher diagnoses.
He has never thrown more than 129.1 innings in a professional season, so whoever lands Sasaki will probably need to treat him with the kid gloves characteristic of top pitching prospects, not the all-in vigor that you might expect from Burnes or Fried. The reward for the initial work, though, could be incredible.
What it will take: A very, very convincing PowerPoint presentation, and a few million dollars.
4. Max Fried, LHP
Why you want him: He prevents runs. How’s that for a selling point?
Fried boasts the best ERA over the past five seasons (minimum 500 innings), and the best ERA over the past three seasons (minimum 400 innings). The left-hander, who will turn 31 in January, works with more subtlety than your typical frontline starter. His strikeout rate hovers around a mundane 23%, but he racks up ground balls and avoids homers like the plague, feeding into a 70 BIP- that shows his contact management was second only to Framber Valdez of the Houston Astros in 2024.
The relatively lithe Fried has never thrown more than 185.1 frames in a season, which will limit confidence in his long-range durability, but he’s also never been anything other than good. Don’t be surprised if he winds up being the smartest pitcher signing of the winter.
What it will take: His deal may not extend beyond five years, but Fried should ask for an average annual value that matches or exceeds the far less consistent Carlos Rodon’s $27 million. It seems likely his total guarantee will come in under $175 million.
5. Alex Bregman, 3B
Why you want him: He’s clearly the most accomplished position player in the class not named Juan Soto.
A bedrock member of the Astros core, Bregman peaked as a legitimate MVP candidate when his pull power potential went farther (literally) in 2018 and 2019, but even with 25 homers instead of 40, he’s a consistent asset. With a sharp eye and elite contact skills – his 109 contact+ was a top-10 number among qualified hitters in 2024 – Bregman has about as reliable a skill set as you’re going to find. His walk rate declined noticeably in 2024, but the overall plate discipline picture still looked strong, finishing with a 114 discipline+.
He’s a year older than the next guy on this list, but don’t be surprised if he winds up jumping him in defensive standing early in their contracts. Bregman is likely capable of competently manning shortstop or second base for stretches in addition to his usual third base.
What it will take: A worse contract year will keep Bregman under the seven-year, $175 million deal that Marcus Semien signed with the TexasRangers in a frothing market, but the value calculation seems similar, if not favorable for Bregman.
6. Willy Adames, SS
Why you want him: A 29-year-old shortstop with 30-homer power, Adames promises pop at a strong defensive position. That position might eventually be third base, but he’s still a capable glove up the middle who will draw interest from some prominent teams in need (hello, Los Angeles Dodgers).
Adames has too much swing-and-miss in his game to expect more than the .251 batting average he tallied in 2024, but a 115 raw value+ (RV+) will go a long way for relatively young, steady performers who can play shortstop.
What it will take: He’s a prime candidate for a six- or seven-year deal that lowers the luxury tax hit for a contender and guarantees him about $150 million.
7. Blake Snell, LHP
Why you want him: Among hurlers who pitched 100 or more innings in 2024, only Paul Skenes had a better RV-, and only Garrett Crochet had a better whiff+.
As ever, the 32-year-old Snell was a bat-missing strikeout monster who’s also prone to missing other things. Starts, the strike zone, the sixth inning. Older and wiser – er, sorry, wilder – than Fried, they get to similar places in very different ways. Snell’s formula feels a bit more tenuous despite his sterling inning-for-inning numbers.
What it will take: More than a one-year deal. Right? A season after a delayed, stunted signing with the San Francisco Giants, expect a shorter-term deal worth more than $30 million per year.
8. Ha-Seong Kim, SS
Why you want him: Buoyed by a smart plate approach (his 119 discipline+ was a top-15 mark in 2024 among hitters with 400+ plate appearances) and excellent defense in the middle infield, Kim churns out quiet value. He has improved his contact rate in each year since making the leap from Korea, which means he now walks almost as much as he strikes out, conjuring a useful offensive force even without significant power.
Perhaps more importantly, Kim rates as a strong defender at shortstop and could be an excellent one at second base. Having just turned 29, he could certainly maintain that for three or four more years.
What it will take: A shoulder surgery that might delay his start in 2025 could create incentive to take a short-term deal, or it could be a bargaining chip for a team looking to lock him up on a steal of a four-year deal for $75 million or less.
9. Anthony Santander, OF
Why you want him: You just sorted the MLB leaderboards by home runs and wow, look at that. The 30-year-old former Rule 5 pick gave himself a terrific free-agency platform by blasting 44 homers for the Orioles last season, but his appeal is slightly more nuanced. Over the past three seasons, only five hitters have more homers than Santander’s 105, and all of them strike out more often than he does (20.5%).
He swings more than you’d advise (77 discipline+), and makes more contact than you’d expect (106 contact+). That adds up to a lower on-base percentage and at least some room for growth with the bat as he likely shuffles toward the designated hitter life.
What it will take: Pony up, those homers are expensive. Expect a deal of four years or more that approaches nine figures.
10. Pete Alonso, 1B
Why you want him: The longtime New York Mets avatar (one of them, at least) presents a reversed Santander case. Alonso possesses elite power potential, and a history of reaching that power without whiffing too often, but his walk year did not make the best case for him maintaining that combination of abilities into his 30s. Still, 34 homers as a career-low total (in a non-pandemic season) is a pretty remarkable fact on the resume.
What it will take: Agent Scott Boras will undoubtedly be looking to cash in on Alonso’s big name and the reputation he earned mostly prior to 2024. Almost anything is possible, but a five-year deal to maximize the total guarantee, even at lower annual rates, seems like the best route.
11. Sean Manaea, LHP
Why you want him: Inspired by Chris Sale, the towering lefty dropped down to a lower arm angle and immediately boosted his strikeout rate and opponents’ batting average while cutting his walk rate. It won’t cost you the farm to see if there’s more to unlock as he becomes more comfortable with his new delivery.
What it will take: Something like $60 million across no more than four years.
12. Jack Flaherty, RHP
Why you want him: The 29-year-old righty who played on the same high school team with Fried and Lucas Giolito (in case you hadn’t heard) has frontline potential. Across four teams in the past two years, he has occasionally reached it and more often slipped into homer-prone fits and starts. The arm that twirled a brilliant 2019 is in there, and perhaps needs encouragement to lean further into his slider and curveball. His once-potent fastball probably isn’t going to reach its old level at 93 mph.
What it will take: Unlike most of the potential pitching gambles on this market, Flaherty is relatively young and evidently healthy, with two straight seasons of 27+ starts under his belt. He might be in line for something like the Eduardo Rodriguez contact, four years and $80 million given annually to a tantalizing former Detroit Tigers starter.
13. Gleyber Torres, 2B
Why you want him: Like a funhouse mirror version of Kim, Torres builds on similarly stellar swing decisions – his discipline+ ranked behind only Soto and Andrew McCutchen – with power that (usually) speaks loudly. Though the overall numbers were down a bit in 2024, it’s likely that he still has plenty of thump in the bat heading into his age-28 season.
He’s still playable at second with at least some chance at improving with experience, and the bat could handle a move down the defensive spectrum if necessary.
What it will take: A short-term deal worth at least $15 million per year seems most likely for a young hitter who might want another crack at the market.
14. Christian Walker, 1B
Why you want him: An all-around player whose glove is the rare value add at the cold corner, Walker nonetheless posted a better RV+ than Alonso or Santander in an injury-interrupted 2024. If he remains relatively healthy as he enters his age-34 season, he’s probably a steal.
What it will take: Assuming he doesn’t accept the Arizona Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, Walker is in line for three years and at least $15 million a year.
15. Walker Buehler, RHP
Why you want him: The ace the Dodgers played in World Series Game 5 looked more like the one they were holding way back in 2021. A slow return to form following a second Tommy John surgery is perhaps to be expected, and the ceiling for Buehler stacks up with the best of this list.
What it will take: A deal that allows him room to prove his health and his value in some shape or form, whether that’s a one-year bubble contract or a longer-term deal involving an opt-out.
16. Shane Bieber, RHP
Why you want him: He’s Shane Bieber, and your faith in him might win you a significant discount on a Cy Young winner working his way back from Tommy John surgery.
What it will take: A two-year deal and a desktop bookmark, leading to scintillating April 2024 highlights, labeled “Patience.”
17. Teoscar Hernandez, OF
Why you want him: He’s looking to cash in after signing a one-year, $23.5 million prove-it deal ahead of last season. His 2024 was a pitch-perfect return to his good-average, great-power days of 2020-22. Anyone would happily slot .274 and 34 homers into the order, which are Hernandez’s averages per 162 games over the last five years.
What it will take: The 32-year-old outfielder will benefit from his big year on the big stage with the Dodgers, drawing at least three years and $60 million despite an impending need to DH.
18. Nathan Eovaldi, RHP
Why you want him: If you’ve ever thought about putting money under your mattress, here’s the pitcher for you. In the last five seasons, Eovaldi’s ERA marks range all the way from 3.63 to … 3.87. He’s a postseason hero and clubhouse favorite who peppers the zone (109 strike+) and goes deep into games (5.9 innings per start) entering his age-35 campaign.
What it will take: A mortal lock to land on a team chasing a ring, Eovaldi could feasibly photocopy the three-year, $54 million deal which he recently opted out of and hand it to his favorite suitor.
19. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP
Why you want him: There’s a world in which we look back and realize a dominant Kikuchi was unlocked in a half season with Houston. Kikuchi thrived with the Astros, amping up his slider use – and, as a result, his strikeout rate – in 60 innings after the trade from the Toronto Blue Jays. His 2.70 ERA in that stint is tantalizing, even as the walks and homers loom in his stat sheet.
What it will take: Age will keep him from snagging anything too long, but a multi-year deal exceeding his original $36 million pact seems certain.
20. Jeff Hoffman, RHP
Why you want him: Supercharged by an 87-mph slider, Hoffman’s two years in the Phillies bullpen produced a 2.28 ERA across 118.2 innings. He’s not a gold-plated closer at this point, but his journey from failed starter to dominant reliever gives him a wider arsenal and more escape hatches if he runs into trouble. His expected strikeout and walk rates were better than fireballing lefty Tanner Scott, the reliever likely to earn the biggest contract this winter.
What it will take: Not all that much! Hoffman will probably get something between $10 million and $15 million per year across two or three years.
21. Tanner Scott, LHP
Why you want him: Visuals will do. His fastball and his slider are terrifying pitches from the left side. After years in the wilderness of walking way too many, the 30-year-old Scott has found a somewhat reasonable level (though his post-trade excellence with San Diego memory holed a worrisome first-half walk rate with the Miami Marlins).
What it will take: The biggest reliever contract of this winter, but probably no more than $60 million.
22. Clay Holmes, RHP
Why you want him: His swerving sinker might be the surest best of anything on offer in the relief market. Being a ground-ball pitcher comes with the pro of generally avoiding home runs and the con of some serious white-knuckle innings when bloops and bleeders turn into hits. That means the day-to-day experience of closer Clay Holmes is decidedly more stressful than the aggregate quantification of closer Clay Holmes, who logged 189.2 innings over the last three seasons with a 2.82 ERA.
What it will take: A classic two-year, $28 million closer or setup man situation.
23. Joc Pederson, DH
Why you want him: You were outbid for Santander or Hernandez and can replace a healthy portion of their production just by slotting Pederson in against right-handers. The slugger who should really only operate as a DH is the league’s best platoon player. Within his role, he logged a RV+ that sandwiched in between Gunnar Henderson and Bryce Harper .
What it will take: A one-year contract and a handshake deal to not pair him with Tommy Pham.
24. Tyler O’Neill, OF
Why you want him: The barrel-chested O’Neill might be a couple tweaks away from becoming next year’s Brent Rooker. Or the wild swings between months of mashing, months of striking out and months of sitting on the IL could continue. With enough defensive value still there in the corner outfield, someone will take a shot after O’Neill finished 2024 with a relatively positive 113 RV+.
What it will take: Three years at more than $10 million per year.
25. Blake Treinen, RHP
Why you want him: His sinker-slider combo is the raison d’être for the Pitching Ninja movement overlays. As long as the 37-year-old Treinen wants to try, someone will employ him to hurl baseballs like that.
What it will take: A one-year deal and reason to believe he might win another World Series.
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