With 82 days until the start of the 2024 college football regular season, ESPN revealed the first update in its computer-based Football Power Index rankings, taking into account the offseason’s transfer portal moves.
Here’s our look at FPI’s three most overrated and underrated teams.
Note: The number next to each team is its FPI rank.
Most overrated
Penn State (6)
When has backing the Nittany Lions under James Franklin been a good idea? One of the biggest stunners in the top 10 is Penn State sniffing the top five. The program ranks third among teams in the expanded Big Ten, but must overcome its recent disappointments to finish that high.
Penn State will rely on its returning talent, including quarterback Drew Allar, running back Nicholas Singleton, and edge-rusher Abdul Carter, for the team to take a leap. The Nittany Lions are 46th in On3’s 2024 transfer portal team rankings (out of 70 teams) and have 247Sports’ 15th-ranked incoming recruiting class.
Texas A&M (14)
A No. 14 ranking for the Aggies in their first season with Mike Elko as their head coach feels far too overconfident. For the second consecutive season, Texas A&M was hit hard in the transfer portal, losing 29 players and placing 63rd in On3’s rankings.
As with the Nittany Lions, the Aggies must contend with an expanded conference as the SEC welcomes Oklahoma and Texas, the latter of which they play in their season finale. Even with its higher-than-expected ranking, Texas A&M isn’t projected to do big things by FPI. It’s projected to win 7.6 games, the lowest total among teams ranked in the top 15.
SMU (25)
The Mustangs are one of five ACC teams ranked in the top 25 in FPI, but after their 23-14 Fenway Bowl loss to Boston College, which finished ninth in the conference in 2023, they might not be ready to contend in a power conference. Among ACC programs, SMU ranked 10th in the 2024 transfer portal, another sign it could take some time for it to rise to the top.
Most underrated
Ohio State (4)
The Buckeyes return a ton of talent from their 2023 team, including cornerback Denzel Burke, edge-rushers Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau, running back TreVeyon Henderson and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka. One would think that should make them at least the favorite to win the Big Ten, if not the national championship. Instead, FPI has Ohio State second in its conference, trailing newcomer Oregon, while having only slightly better odds of winning the Big Ten (25.7 percent) than Penn State (22.2 percent).
Ole Miss (16)
Lane Kiffin’s squad more closely resembles a top-10 team than one ranked 16th. Quarterback Jaxson Dart might be the most underrated returning quarterback in the SEC. Last season, he completed 65.1 percent of passes and averaged 9.1 yards per attempt while throwing for 23 touchdowns and five interceptions. The Rebels were also active in the offseason, adding the third-ranked transfer portal class, including former Texas A&M defensive lineman Walter Nolen and Florida edge-rusher Princely Umanmielen.
Utah (27)
Something is fishy about Utah being not only outside the top 25 but also behind four other Big 12 schools. The Utes won consecutive Pac-12 championship games in 2021 and 2022 and return quarterback Cameron Rising, who missed all of last season.
Head coach Kyle Whittingham is one of the best in the business, and the program has a strong returning defense. Both factors make the Utes a serious threat in their new conference this season.
“If you had to pick one program coming in from the Pac-12 as a legit contender, it’s definitely these guys,” an anonymous Big 12 coach recently said to Athlon Sports.
“Utah should win the Big 12,” said Fox Sports college football analyst Joel Klatt in May. He later described them as “the best team” in the conference.
