One of the most interesting storylines to discuss before the start of the 2024-25 NBA season is which players will unexpectedly burst onto the scene.
There is a great incentive to have accurate foresight in this category, as correct predictions can lead to big wins in the gambling, fantasy, and fandom sectors.
But how does one do it?
Well, normally, breakout NBA players don’t truly come out of nowhere. There are little hints sprinkled into the previous season that foreshadow the breakthrough that shocks the national conscience.
For instance, anyone who was truly paying attention to Andrew Nembhard during his rookie season could have seen his rise in the 2024 playoffs coming, at least to some extent.
OK, so we know looking at the previous season can give us a good sense of direction heading into the next season. But what about the previous season should we analyze?
Fortunately, we have the perfect tool for tracking in-season development. DELTA measures a player’s increase/decrease in DRIP – our in-house one-number metric – from the beginning of the season until the end.
This metric does a great job of pinpointing potential Most Improved Player of the Year (MIP) candidates. For example, last year, the three top players in MIP voting (Tyrese Maxey, Coby White and Alperen Sengun) finished with a DELTA score of plus-0.8 or higher.
To tie it all together, we are going to look at the top performers in DELTA from Jan. 1 to the end of the regular season to get a sense of who was getting hot right before the conclusion of the 2023-24 campaign, and who may be able to carry that momentum over to 2024-25.
We chose to go all the way back to January to create a large enough sample size to remove the noise of players putting up gaudy counting stats on tanking teams.
Here are our 10 breakout candidates for the 2024-25 season, according to DELTA.
The Six Sophomores
We decided to group the six sophomores together since it is customary for rookies to grow stronger as they progress through their inaugural campaign.
With that in mind, let’s discuss these names for a second.
Kris Murray and Taylor Hendricks are probably the least impressive of the group, as their performance in DELTA is heavily influenced by the fact that a majority of their playing time came after the New Year (88.8% of Murray’s and 79.6% of Hendricks’).
GG Jackson also experienced this (98.5% of his minutes came after Jan. 1), but his flashes were much more promising than anything we saw from those two. So, expect great things from the 2023 NBA Draft pick moving forward. Although, his sophomore season may have taken a hit after an offseason foot injury projects to put him on the shelf for roughly half the regular season (thereby squashing his breakout chances).
That leaves us with three sophomores to monitor. The Thompson twins, Amen and Ausar, saw a relatively evenly distributed amount of playing time throughout the season (well, at least Ausar did). This makes their standing in DELTA even more promising. Once Ausar battles back from his blood clot issue, look for both forwards to take a leap from defensive spark plugs to (potentially) legitimate starting-caliber role players in Year 2.
Victor Wembanyama’s improvement throughout the regular season was well-documented (he finished ninth in the entire league in DRIP). He didn’t make an All-Star team in 2023-24, but there is a good chance we see his name on an All-NBA squad in 2024-25. And yes, if you want to say that Wemby already had his breakout on the way to winning the 2023-24 Rookie of the Year, we’d probably agree. But hey, the DELTA has spoken and we’re not one to argue.
The Final Four
Scottie Pippen Jr., Memphis Grizzlies
- DELTA After Jan. 1: +3.04 (2nd in NBA)
The non-rising sophomore with the highest DELTA score after Jan. 1 is none other than the son of an NBA legend. Quite literally all of Pippen’s 526.8 minutes came in the timeframe we’re looking at. But we’re willing to excuse this because the Grizzlies (a notoriously well-run organization) felt that Pippen’s second half surge was so legitimate that it warranted a multi-year contract.
Unlike his father, who made a living as an inspector gadget two-way forward, Pippen Jr. is a fierce two-way point guard who will pick you up at full court on one end and relentlessly attack the rim as a scorer on the other side (75th percentile in rim attempts per 75 possessions).
If Pippen’s DELTA score is any indication, he’ll fill in as the backup point guard that the darkhorse Grizzlies have been searching for since they lost Tyus Jones, which would be a huge step up from the G-League player he was originally pegged to be.
Keon Ellis, Sacramento Kings
- DELTA After Jan. 1: +2.41 (5th in NBA)
One of the best developments of an otherwise unspectacular season for the Kings was the stealthy emergence of Ellis. After Ellis permanently joined the starting lineup on March 20, the Kings went from the 19th-best defense in the NBA to third over the course of the final 15 games.
The reason his performance was subtle was because no one was really paying too much attention to the Kings as they were faltering down the stretch due to injuries (losing both Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter). Plus, Ellis only averaged 5.4 points on the season – hardly the kind of output that piques the interest of a casual fan.
However, don’t be fooled by that pedestrian mark. Ellis has the perfect skill set for a modern-day, off-ball guard. He can shoot, attack closeouts, defend the perimeter, create turnovers, and offer positional rim protection. If Ellis keeps trending in this direction, the Kings could have their own version of a Derrick White developmental story.
Tre Mann, Charlotte Hornets
- DELTA After Jan. 1: +2.30 (6th in NBA)
Most people will agree that the Oklahoma City Thunder are the most well-run organization in the NBA. But it seems they made a rare misstep by letting Tre Mann go in a deadline trade for Gordon Hayward (to be fair, we also thought it was a good idea).
Not only did Hayward underperform and then retire from the league, but Mann was starting to really hit his groove after getting moved. And he’s carried that over into this preseason.
After being traded to the Hornets (28 games), Mann averaged 11.9 points, 5.2 assists and 1.7 steals in 31.0 minutes per contest. The Hornets were 5.2 points better per 100 possessions when he was on the floor (79th percentile). Mann played so well that he even earned lofty praise from Damian Lillard himself.
If Mann keeps playing this way, look for him to graduate from bust to one of the most explosive playmaking combo guards (think an Anfernee Simons/Terry Rozier type) in the entire league. And given the voting bodies’ bias toward scoring, such a leap would surely earn this Hornet some MIP buzz.
Tre Jones, San Antonio Spurs
- DELTA After Jan. 1: +2.17 (8th in NBA)
We mentioned Tyus Jones earlier, but what about his brother? Tre Jones, second on the Spurs in DRIP last season, was quietly the team’s (arguably) second-most important player after the superstar Wembanyama.
This was particularly the case after the team promoted him to full-time starting point guard on Jan. 4. After that, Jones averaged 11.3 points, 7.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds and 1.2 steals over the final 48 games. The Spurs posted a 35.4% win percentage during that time, which may not seem like much, but it was a huge improvement from the 14.7% they were at before that move.
This year, the Spurs will likely be much better. And while Chris Paul will take some of his minutes (he turns 40 in May), Jones will have the chance to show his abilities on a big stage (this team desperately needs a table setter for Wemby – something Jones excels at).
If he can do that, the perception of Jones as a player could go from a solid backup option to a starting caliber point guard on a respectable team – one of the hardest hurdles to climb at any position.
Be sure to check out our MLB, NBA, NFL and college football coverage. And follow us on X and Instagram for more!
