With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing our NBA power rankings based on our TRACR-powered season-long projections each week down the stretch of the 2024-25 season.
The excitement of the new season has long been forgotten. The in-season playoff energy of the NBA Cup is behind us. The warm and cozy feeling of watching games on Christmas is only a memory.
Now, with the playoffs not set to begin until April 15, we are official in the dog days of the 2024-25 season. The elite teams will power through, while the pretenders are likely to fade away.
To help us sort out which clubs fall into which categories, our projection model is providing us data-backed predictions the rest of the way. Our power rankings are not Joe Expert’s opinion. They are based on actual data through a model that incorporates each team’s TRACR, win-loss record, strength of schedule and more.
What is TRACR? A model that normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate numbers. It uses advanced metrics and other factors on both sides of the ball to calculate how many points per 100 possessions (offensive, defensive and overall ratings) better or worse teams are compared to the league-average club during the season (lower is better for defense).
Keep in mind that these TRACR rankings will shift throughout the week. You can always find up-to-date ratings and projections on our season-long predictions page.
Opta Analyst’s NBA Power Rankings
1. Oklahoma City Thunder (TRACR: 14.8)
- Record: 35-7
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 5/Defense No. 1
- Probability of Making the Playoffs:<100%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 68.9%
- DRIP Leader (Min. 700 Minutes): Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 5.3
Trending: Oklahoma City beat Brooklyn on Sunday, scoring 24 points off turnovers. It was the 30th time in 42 games this season with 20 or more points off turnovers. The Thunder’s 71.4% of total games with 20+ points off turnovers is on pace to be 8% higher than any other team in the last 30 seasons (2022-23 Raptors, 2009-10 Warriors, 1997-98 Celtics each at 63.4%).
2. Boston Celtics (9.3)
- Record: 30-13
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 3/Defense No. 4
- Probability of Making the Playoffs:<100%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 40.5%
- DRIP Leader: Jayson Tatum 4.1
Trending: Jayson Tatum has made 146 3-pointers this season, the most by a Celtics player through 40 player games in a season in team history. Tatum’s 1,101 points this season rank fifth through 40 player games in Celtics history.
3. Cleveland Cavaliers (9.0)
- Record: 36-6
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 1/Defense 11th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs:<100%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 35.5%
- DRIP Leader: Donovan Mitchell 3.8
Trending: The Cavaliers are 15-4 (.789) on the road this season, best in the NBA and on pace for the fifth best road record in a single season in NBA history. The Cavaliers have never previously
finished a season with better than a .659-road win percentage (27-14 in 2008-09).
4. Memphis Grizzlies (7.0)
- Record: 28-15
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 6/Defense No. 6
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 98.6%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 6.9%
- DRIP Leader: Jaren Jackson Jr. 2.4
Trending: Jaren Jackson Jr. has sunk at least one 3-pointer and blocked at least one shot in all seven of his career games played against the Hornets (Wednesday night’s opponent). No other player has a streak longer than three such games to begin their NBA career in games against Charlotte.
5. Denver Nuggets (6.3)
- Record: 27-16
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 4/Defense 15th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 97.8%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 7.2%
- DRIP Leader: Nikola Jokic 5.6
Trending: Nikola Jokic has a streak of four games with a triple-double, averaging 20.3 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.0 assists while shooting 69.8% from the field and 4 of 7 from the 3-point line over this stretch.
6. Houston Rockets (5.3)
- Record: 28-14
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 9/Defense No. 5
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 97.6%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 4.7%
- DRIP Leader: Fred VanVleet 2.4
Trending: Fred VanVleet tied his season high with six steals in Monday’s win. With 20 points and five 3-pointers, VanVleet had 20/5/5 in a game for just the second time in his career, joining Tyrese Maxey and Quentin Grimes as the only players with such a game in 2024-25.
7. Los Angeles Clippers (4.6)
- Record: 24-18
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 19th/Defense No. 2
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 87.8%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 4.8%
- DRIP Leader: James Harden 2.9
Trending: Norman Powell is averaging 23.7 points this season. That would be the highest single-season scoring average by a Clippers player who was drafted in the second round or later (or undrafted) since World B. Free for the San Diego Clippers in 1979-80 (30.2).
8. New York Knicks (3.9)
- Record: 29-16
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 2/Defense 22nd
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 99.2%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 8.7%
- DRIP Leader: Karl-Anthony Towns 2.6
Trending: Jalen Brunson has scored at least 30 points while shooting 50.0% or better from the field in five games this month, tied with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Devin Booker for the second-most games by a player in the month of January (Zach LaVine, seven).
9. Sacramento Kings (3.5)
- Record: 22-20
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 7/Defense 12th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 68.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 2.9%
- DRIP Leader: Domantas Sabonis 2.2
Trending: With 29 points and 18 rebounds in Sunday’s win, Domantas Sabonis had his 10th game as a member of the Kings with 25+ points and 15+ rebounds. The only other Kings with double-digit such games in the last 40 years are DeMarcus Cousins (41) and Chris Webber (31).
10. Minnesota Timberwolves (3.3)
- Record: 22-21
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 10th/Defense No. 8
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 71.9%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 2.3%
- DRIP Leader: Anthony Edwards 2.4
Trending: Anthony Edwards is averaging 31.7 points and shooting 53.8% on 10.1 3-point attempts per game over his last nine road games. The only other player to have a nine-game road span where they averaged 30+ points while making at least half of their 3-point attempts
on 10+ shots per game is Stephen Curry.
11. Indiana Pacers (3.1)
- Record: 24-19
- TRACR Ranks: Offense No. 8/Defense 17th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 95.4%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 7.1%
- DRIP Leader: Tyrese Haliburton 3.5
Trending: The Pacers have the league’s third-highest field goal percentage in the paint (60.5%), behind only the New York Knicks (61.1%) and Cleveland Cavaliers (60.8%).
12. Milwaukee Bucks (2.8)
- Record: 24-17
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 12th/Defense No. 7
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 91.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 3.8%
- DRIP Leader: Giannis Antetokounmpo 4.1
Trending: Milwaukee has scored 120+ points in all four games during its current win streak. A fifth consecutive win while scoring at least 120 points would tie the longest such streak in team history.
13. Dallas Mavericks (2.5)
- Record: 23-20
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 13th/Defense 10th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 71.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 1.2%
- DRIP Leader: Luka Doncic 5.5
Trending: Dallas’ bench went 1 for 10 (10.0%) from 3-point range in its loss against the Hornets. It was the fifth time the Mavericks’ bench has made 10.0% or fewer of its 3-point attempts this season, tied with the Wizards for the most in the NBA.
14. Detroit Pistons (-0.4)
- Record: 22-21
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 21st/Defense No. 9
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 66.6%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 1.0%
- DRIP Leader: Tobias Harris -0.1
Trending: The Pistons are 18-2 (.900) when leading after the third quarter this season, the fifth-best record in the NBA. The Hawks have six comeback wins when trailing after three quarters this season with only the Magic and Nuggets having more such wins (seven apiece).
15. Miami Heat (-0.4)
- Record: 21-21
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 15th/Defense 16th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 67.6%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 1.2%
- DRIP Leader: Jimmy Butler 4.2
Trending: The Heat have the NBA’s 10th-highest 3-point usage (44.3%), but they should probably avoid throwing 3s up from the corners. They have the league’s 10th-lowest corner 3-point percentage (36.7%).
16. Golden State Warriors (-1.3)
- Record: 21-21
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 22nd/Defense 14th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 38.9%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.4%
- DRIP Leader: Stephen Curry 3.4
Trending: The Warriors’ 125-85 loss to Boston Monday was the team’s second-largest loss of the season (lost by 51 at Memphis, Dec. 19). This is the sixth season in Golden State’s history with multiple 40-point losses and first one since 2019-20 (also two 40-point losses).
17. Atlanta Hawks (-1.6)
- Record: 22-20
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 20th/Defense 18th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 68.5%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.8%
- DRIP Leader: Jalen Johnson/Trae Young 1.0
Trending: Jalen Johnson already has more double-doubles than he did last season (20 to 19) and his 20 games with at least 10 points and 10 rebounds are tied for the most in the NBA this year
among players listed 6-foot-9 or shorter (Josh Hart, Bam Adebayo).
18. Orlando Magic (-1.9)
- Record: 23-22
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 30th/Defense No. 3
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 70.9%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.5%
- DRIP Leader: Jalen Suggs 3.0
Trending: With 26 points in Tuesday’s loss at Toronto, Paolo Banchero surpassed the 3,500-point mark for his career. The only other Magic player to have reached 3,500 points in fewer games than Banchero (163) is Shaquille O’Neal (137).
19. San Antonio Spurs (-2.5)
- Record: 19-22
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 18th/Defense 19th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 15.0%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.2%
- DRIP Leader: Victor Wembanyama 4.7
Trending: Blake Wesley ranks fourth in the NBA in percentage of assists (25.5%) that have led to dunks. He can probably thank Victor Wembanyama for that.
20. Phoenix Suns (-2.9)
- Record: 21-21
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 11th/Defense 24th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 19.3%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Kevin Durant 2.2
Trending: Kevin Durant has made 28.6% of his 3-pointers so far in January, his lowest 3-point
percentage in the month of January since his rookie season in 2007-08. Inversely, Durant’s 54.6 field-goal percentage this month would be his highest in January since 2017.
21. Chicago Bulls (-3.2)
- Record: 19-25
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 16th/Defense 20th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 28.3%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.8%
- DRIP Leader: Nikola Vucevic 0.8
Trending: Zach LaVine has scored at least 27 points and made multiple 3s in six straight road games. That surpasses Michael Jordan’s five-game run (January 13-23, 1996) for longest such streak on the road in Bulls history.
22. Los Angeles Lakers (-3.3)
- Record: 23-18
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 14th/Defense 25th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 33.5%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Anthony Davis 3.2
Trending: LeBron James posted his 101st career game as a Laker with 20+ points and 10+ assists in Tuesday’s rout of the Wizards. James and Magic Johnson are the only Lakers players in the last 40 years with at least 100 such games.
23. Charlotte Hornets (-4.5)
- Record: 11-28
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 27th/Defense 13th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 3.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: 0.1%
- DRIP Leader: LaMelo Ball 3.2
Trending: LaMelo Ball had at least 20 points, five rebounds, five assists and five made 3s in Charlotte’s recent win. It’s the 36th time in Ball’s career he has reached each of those marks in a game, 24 more times than any other player in team history (Kemba Walker – 14).
24. Philadelphia 76ers (-5.2)
- Record: 15-27
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 25th/Defense 21st
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 5.9%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Paul George 3.4
Trending: Tyrese Maxey has averaged 30.6 points and 7.4 assists over his last eight games, but the Sixers have gone just 1-6 over that stretch.
25. Toronto Raptors (-5.7)
- Record: 11-32
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 17th/Defense 26th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 2.7%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Scottie Barnes 1.4
Trending: Jakob Poeltl (14.6 points per game) is just shy of becoming the third Raptor this season to average at least 15.0 points and 6.0 rebounds (RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes). The only season Toronto had a trio with those averages was the 2018-19 championship season (Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam, Serge Ibaka, min. 60% team games).
26. New Orleans Pelicans (-5.8)
- Record: 12-32
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 24th/Defense 23rd
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Trey Murphy III 2.8
Trending: Trey Murphy III has made at least two 3s in 33 consecutive games. Only five players in NBA history have produced a longer such streak: Stephen Curry (four times), Donte DiVincenzo (41), Paul George (40), Fred VanVleet (38), and James Harden (37).
27. Utah Jazz (-7.0)
- Record: 10-31
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 23rd/Defense 29th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Lauri Markkanen 1.8
Trending: Kyle Filipowski had 17 rebounds in Utah’s recent loss to New Orleans. It was the most
rebounds by a Jazz rookie coming off the bench since Paul Millsap also pulled down 17 boards against the Hornets on Jan. 27, 2007.
28. Portland Trail Blazers (-8.3)
- Record: 15-28
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 26th/Defense 28th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.4%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Toumani Camara 0.6
Trending: In Sunday’s win, Shaedon Sharpe scored 23 points in his first game coming off the bench since Nov. 8. In his career, the Trail Blazers are 14-16 (.467) when Sharpe scores more than 20 points in a game but are 2-0 when he does so off the bench.
29. Brooklyn Nets (-9.4)
- Record: 14-30
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 28th/Defense 27th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: 0.7%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Cameron Johnson 1.7
Trending: Cameron Johnson has made a 3-pointer in 51 consecutive games, the fourth-longest active streak in the NBA. He is the first player in Nets history with two separate 50-game streaks with a made 3.
30. Washington Wizards (-13.5)
- Record: 6-36
- TRACR Ranks: Offense 29th/Defense 30th
- Probability of Making the Playoffs: <0.1%
- Probability of Reaching the NBA Finals: <0.1%
- DRIP Leader: Jordan Poole 0.2
Trending: The Wizards have lost 18 consecutive road games versus nonconference opponents heading into Thursday night’s road tilt with the Los Angeles Clippers.
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team.
