Does it seem like kickers are more involved this season? Does it seem like there have been more 50-yard field goals than ever? We took a data dive to find out why.
It’s not hyperbole to say that kicker is now one of the most important positions in the NFL.
Just look at a Week 1 matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Atlanta Falcons, when Steelers kicker Chris Boswell hit all six of his field goal attempts in an 18-10 win. Washington Commanders kicker Austin Seibert went 7 for 7 in a win a week later, even though the New York Giants scored three touchdowns.
Those are just two game-specific examples of a growing trending in the NFL: Teams are taking points on field goals rather than going for it on fourth down or punting the ball away.
While conversion rates on field goals are similar to 2023 so far, overall attempts are at 4.22 per game compared to 3.90 last season. At its current pace, 2024 would easily break the record (1,062 in 2022) for most field-goal attempts in a season with about 1,148.
Even more, teams are attempting and making kicks of at least 50 yards at an impressive rate. Attempts from 50-plus yards are on pace (294.9) to blow away 2023’s total (230) and the conversion rate is up to an all-time high 74.1% – about six percentage points more than 2023 and 2022, eight points higher than 2021 and almost five points higher than the current single-season record of 69.5% in 2017.
It’s hard to pinpoint why this is all happening. Inefficient offenses, better defenses or just stronger, more accurate kickers are a few theories. Teams are starting drives further downfield, too. Thanks to the NFL’s new kickoff rule, teams average around the 30-yard-line to begin drives, rather than the 28-yard-line average over the previous four seasons.
But the result has been a much more different approach than in recent years. Rather than punt to play the field-position game or go for it on fourth down, teams are opting to kick long-distance field goals. We’re on pace for 368.6 pass attempts on fourth down in 2024, which would be way down from 468 in 2021, 457 in 2023 and 416 in 2022. We’re also averaging just 7.75 punts per game, down from an average of 8.32 a year ago.
Scoring is up just slightly over last season (44.8 combined points per game vs. 43.5 in 2023), but the biggest changes seem to be those listed above and the amount of long-distance field goals attempted.
There has also been success in just making a lot of field goals in a game. Teams are 42-18 this year in games they’ve converted at least three field goals, 15-6 when they’ve made at least four, 4-3 when they’ve made five or more and 3-0 when they’ve hit at least six.
Meanwhile, teams are just 65-88 in games they made fewer than three field goals. The Los Angeles Chargers fell just short of knocking off the Arizona Cardinals in Week 7 after kicker Cameron Dicker hit all five of his field goal attempts (two from 50+ yards). But Chad Ryland’s 32-yarder as time expired gave the Cardinals a 17-15 win on Monday Night Football.
The number of games in which teams are opting for field goals on a weekly basis over chances to score touchdowns tells the story of team’s decision-making when points are on the line.
The 2024 season is on track to break NFL records in games with at least at least three, four and five field goals in a week.
Kicking field goals has been something of a loophole in snagging wins despite poor offensive efficiency. It’s easy to tell which teams are at the top of offensive EVE based on how many touchdowns they’ve scored this season.
But the lines become a bit more blurred when you exclusively look at field goals made compared to total EVE, which measures average yards gained (and prevented defensively) compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation.
It’s why teams like the Denver Broncos and the Pittsburgh Steelers can rank 28th and 18th in offensive EVE, respectively, but be 4-3 and 5-2 on the year. They’ve paired a great defense (Denver is first in defensive EVE and Pittsburgh fifth) with accurate field goal kicking (Will Lutz is seventh in overall conversion rate, while Boswell is tied for fifth).
Basically it boils down to this: The best teams are finding ways to win whether they’re kicking field goals, scoring touchdowns or keeping games close. (The Philadelphia Eagles rank last in field goals but sit at 4-2.)
The Houston Texans are 5-2 but rank dead-center in offensive EVE and are tied for 18th in the league with a plus-six point differential. How have they been able to win? Houston’s kicker, Ka’imi Fairbairn, is fifth in the NFL with 16 field goals and first with nine from at least 50. Two of those directly resulted in wins and a third, the team’s 29-27 Week 1 victory over the Indianapolis Colts, included three 50-yarders.
On the flip side, the Dallas Cowboys are 3-3 and can’t win games despite the kicker Brandon Aubrey’s eight field goals from 50+ yards. That number ranks second behind Fairbairn and Aubrey’s 17 field goals is tied for third among all kickers in the league. However, Dallas ranks 29th in defensive EVE, hindering the team’s ability to keep games close, especially with a 23rd-ranked offensive EVE.
So while having a great kicker doesn’t guarantee success, it can help level the playing field for a team that is otherwise struggling. It is also the cherry on top for the best teams in the NFL.
The Commanders have a league-leading plus-66 point differential thanks in part to kicker Austin Seibert. He and Boswell are tied with a league-high 19 field goals, and Seibert’s only miss was a 50-yard attempt that was blocked by the Baltimore Ravens in Week 5.
Field goal attempts are likely to even out some as the season progresses and offenses get more comfortable. But when kickers aren’t missing, teams are taking the points a league that keeps getting tighter on the scoreboard.
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