NFL Playoff Predictions 2024 | Opta Analyst

After a first half full of unexpected moments, we’re using our projection model to determine which teams will make the playoffs. Where does your team fall?

When it comes to the NFL, a season that goes completely to form would be the biggest surprise of all.

No, we didn’t see the Washington Commanders ushering in an exciting new era by immediately establishing themselves as a serious playoff contender. Or the dramatic declines by the Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins in their follow-ups to successful 2023 regular seasons.

But no one else did either, which is why sportsbooks stay in business and the NFL continues to enjoy unparalleled popularity and massive revenue streams year after year.

So, when taking a look back at our preseason predictions, having half of our projected playoff field currently on track to extend their seasons is really pretty much par for the course when attempting to forecast a league in which teams routinely take big leaps forward or backward from season to season, and injuries can make a monumental impact on their trajectories.

PROJECTED DIVISION WINNERS AND WILD CARDS (WITH PROBABILITIES)

And now let’s take a further look at who’s in the driver’s seat to obtain one of the coveted 14 2024 NFL playoff spots, while giving a more detailed breakdown of each’s chances to remain there come January:

RIGHT ON COURSE

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (8-0)

• Current Standing: AFC No. 1 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 99.9%

That the two-time defending Super Bowl champs are well on their way to making an unprecedented three-peat a realistic possibility is no shock, though few could have foreseen them staying unbeaten at this stage with Kareem Hunt as their leading rusher and Patrick Mahomes tied for third in the league in interceptions. But no one improvises or rises to the occasion better than the Chiefs, who have had six of their eight victories come by seven or fewer points.

DETROIT LIONS (7-1)

• Current Standing: NFC No. 1 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 91.9%

Our model did give the Packers slightly better odds of winning the NFC North than Detroit entering the season, but the Lions have asserted themselves as probably the conference’s team to beat with a 21.4% chance of reaching the Super Bowl (second only to the Chiefs’ 35.7%). Dan Campbell’s bunch has risen to the top behind a six-game winning streak in which quarterback Jared Goff has produced a stellar 140.1 passer rating, the highest over a six-game span in the modern NFL era (min. 100 pass attempts).

ATLANTA FALCONS (6-3)

• Current Standing: NFC No. 3 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 95.5%

Our preseason pick to win the NFC South is looking like a lock to get there in Year 1 of the Raheem Morris/Kirk Cousins regime. Only 4-5 Tampa Bay could be considered a viable threat to Atlanta for division supremacy, and the Falcons have swept the season series with the Buccaneers while also holding a two-game advantage on their rivals.

HOUSTON TEXANS (6-3)

• Current Standing: AFC No. 4 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 96.3%

The Texans find themselves in a nearly identical spot as the Falcons, as they’ve also swept their main competition in the suspect AFC South with a pair of wins over 4-5 Indianapolis and also own a two-game advantage on their closest pursuer. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has struggled on the road against quality defenses (a 50% completion rate and 62.7 passer rating in losses at Minnesota, Green Bay and the Jets), which may explain why Houston has the lowest probability of the AFC’s projected division champs to reach the conference title game at 26.9%.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (6-3)

• Current Standing: AFC No. 5 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 90.7%

The Ravens are a half-game behind first-place Pittsburgh for first place in the AFC North, but there are a couple of reasons why we like their prospects more than those of the Steelers. For one, Baltimore is our top-ranked team in EVE (efficiency versus expected) behind the devastating duo of current MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and the rejuvenated Derrick Henry. The Ravens also appear to have a slightly less treacherous path compared to Pittsburgh, which owns the league’s third-hardest remaining strength of schedule based on present records.

TOUGHEST REMAINING STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (BASED ON OPP. RECORDS)

• .632 – Chicago Bears                    
• .574 – Cleveland Browns     
• .570 – Pittsburgh Steelers       
• .565 – Denver Broncos        
• .559 – New England Patriots          

Our model still views the Steelers, who are 2-0 since Russell Wilson returned from injury to take over at quarterback, as a good bet to reach the playoff field as a wild-card team. It’s given Mike Tomlin’s always-competitive bunch a 74.4% probability of making the dance, up from 41.6% entering the season.

GREEN BAY PACKERS (6-3)

• Current Standing: NFC No. 7 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 68.0%

The Packers stand on far firmer ground at the midway point than they did a year ago, when they had to win six of their final eight games to sneak into the NFC’s final wild-card spot. Catching the rolling Lions will be tough after last week’s 24-14 home loss to Detroit, though Jordan Love’s turnover issues may be Matt LaFleur’s greater concern. After throwing just one interception over last season’s aforementioned eight-game hot run, the franchise quarterback has been picked at least once in each of his seven starts in 2024.

THE PLEASANT SURPRISES

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (7-2)

• Current Standing: NFC No. 2 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 95.8%

There’s no denying that the drafting of quarterback Jayden Daniels and the hiring of head coach Dan Quinn have been home-run maneuvers that have produced instant success few could have envisioned for the upstart Commanders. Our model gave Washington the lowest expected win total (6.7) among the NFC East teams heading into Daniels’ rookie campaign. It’s now projecting the Burgundy and Gold with 11.7 expected wins, second only to Detroit’s 11.9 for tops in the conference. The Commanders’ playoff probability has also soared from 12.9% in the preseason to 95.8% as of Thursday, the largest increase of any team over the course of the season.

BUFFALO BILLS (7-2)

• Current Standing: AFC No. 2 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 98.7%

A sizable offseason overhaul that included trading away star receiver Stefon Diggs had lowered the bar for the Bills, but one of the most consistently good franchises in recent times proved once more it should never be counted out. Entering the season with a 36.2% chance of extending its playoff streak, Buffalo now looks like a virtual certainty to capture a fifth straight AFC East title. The Bills are 4.0 games up on the dysfunctional Jets and 4.5 ahead of the injury-riddled Dolphins and are 3-0 in division play, while the East’s other three teams all have two divisional losses.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-4)

• Current Standing: NFC No. 4 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 38.9%

An NFC West the San Francisco 49ers were supposed to dominate has turned into a mad four-way scrum in which the Cardinals have emerged from perceived bottom-feeders. Arizona, the only member of the division we projected to be under 9.0 expected wins (6.3), enters Week 10 as its only team above .500 and the one with possibly the smoothest road ahead, as the Cards own the third-easiest remaining schedule in the league based on current records. It’s still anybody’s game, however, in a division race that figures to come right down to the wire.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-2)

• Current Standing: NFC No. 5 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 65.2%

If the Commanders rank as this season’s biggest surprise contender, the Vikings would have to rate as a close second. The team with the lowest expected win total (5.9) coming into the season has already surpassed that mark halfway through, though it has taken a slight step back of late following a stunning 5-0 start. Minnesota still can’t be considered a certainty for postseason play just yet, though 18 of 20 teams that have started 6-2 have made the playoffs since its expansion to 14 teams in 2020 (last season’s Jaguars were one of the two that missed, however).

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (5-3)

• Current Standing: AFC No. 6 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 81.9%

The jury still should still be out on the Chargers, as four of their five victories have come against teams that are all currently 2-7 and they’ve fallen short against the best opponents they’ve faced thus far (Kansas City, Pittsburgh, Arizona). They’ve also got a stout defense that ranks third in EVE, a new culture established by a proven winner in first-year coach Jim Harbaugh and what looks to be a non-demanding remaining schedule, all factors in our model projecting the Bolts to be a fairly safe bet to make the postseason.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (6-2)

• Current Standing: NFC No. 6 seed
• Current Playoff Probability: 91.3%

A team that’s reached the playoffs three straight years and six of the last seven shouldn’t be considered an overachiever, but our model did give the Eagles a relatively low 32% chance of continuing that run of success prior to Week 1. And Philly certainly stands as a major threat to the Commanders’ quest of going from last to first in the NFC East despite our computer giving the Eagles a 40.3% probability of winning the division (Washington is at 59.4%). Tied with the Lions and 49ers atop the NFC in overall EVE, the Eagles will get two cracks at the current division front-runner before the season is out.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (4-5)

• Current Standing: 8th in AFC
• Current Playoff Probability: 41.8%

There’s a logjam of mediocrity in the middle of the AFC right now, with the Denver Broncos currently occupying the final wild-card spot at 5-4 and the Colts and Cincinnati a game behind. Indianapolis has the easiest remaining schedule of the three based on current records (the Broncos have the fourth toughest). Considering that the Colts had just a 12.4% playoff probability coming into the season, they would qualify for the pleasant surprise category if the aging Joe Flacco can lead them in.

THE DISAPPOINTMENTS

DALLAS COWBOYS (3-5)

• Preseason Playoff Probability: 67.2%
• Current Playoff Probability: 1.5%

A season that was already teetering on the brink of disaster reached the point of no return when Dallas lost quarterback Dak Prescott for what will be multiple games in last week’s 27-21 defeat at Atlanta. The preseason NFC East-favorite Cowboys can’t fall back on a defense that’s been among the league’s worst in EVE, so the only question right now is what changes Jerry Jones will surely be making this offseason.

MIAMI DOLPHINS (2-6)

• Preseason Playoff Probability: 72.0%
• Current Playoff Probability: 6.9%

The Dolphins have been the AFC’s version of Dallas, with their season going off the rails after losing quarterback Tua Tagovailoa for four games due to a concussion with no viable backup on the roster. Though Miami’s offense has shown some life in the two games since Tagovailoa’s return, the AFC East preseason favorites are more likely to be a potential spoiler in the second half as opposed to a true postseason contender due to the hole they’ve dug.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (4-4)

• Preseason Playoff Probability: 94.9%
• Current Playoff Probability: 36.5%

The Chiefs aren’t the only participant in the most recent Super Bowl to be hit hard by a rash of key injuries. Unlike the team that narrowly beat them in Las Vegas in February, the 49ers haven’t overcome those obstacles with nearly the same degree of success. Though the defending NFC champs clearly haven’t met expectations to this point, they’re still a dangerous team that’s tied for first in the conference in EVE and one still capable of making some noise in the wide-open NFC West. And with 2023 NFL Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey finally due back this week, a second-half surge seems well within reach.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (2-7)

• Preseason Playoff Probability: 56.4%
• Current Playoff Probability: 14.2%

Generally viewed as a bona fide playoff contender entering this season, the Jaguars have instead shown their 1-5 finish to the 2023 campaign was more than just a run of bad luck as they’ve been weighed down by horrid defensive play and expected franchise quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s stalled progress. Like the Dolphins, Jacksonville has been more competitive of late, though the 6-2 finish or so it would probably take to make the playoffs seems rather far-fetched for a team that’s shown little consistency.

NEW YORK JETS (3-6)

• Preseason Playoff Probability: 43.0%
• Current Playoff Probability: 24.5%

This list would not be complete without a mention of the Jets, even though our expectations (a 43% chance of making the playoffs before the season) weren’t nearly as lavish as those the national media bestowed on a team desperate to end the NFL’s longest active playoff drought at 13 years. With a good defense and a four-time league MVP at quarterback in Aaron Rodgers, it’s not out of the realm of possibility the Jets can pull themselves out of their present predicament. That will still be a challenge, though, considering they’re 2.0 games behind Denver for the AFC’s No. 7 seed and lost a head-to-head matchup with the Broncos in Week 4.

Be sure to check out our MLB and NBA coverage, as well as all our college football and NFL picks. Follow us on X, Threads, Facebook and Instagram for more!