We provide one big question to track and reveal our model’s NFL playoff predictions for all six games of Super Wild Card Weekend.
AFC PLAYOFFS
There’s quite a bit of familiarity to this season’s AFC playoff field, and the Pittsburgh Steelers are hoping that experience counts.
The Denver Broncos, meanwhile, will be aiming for a repeat of history.
The AFC tournament features the same four division winners from last season – the first time that’s happened since 2019. That year the Tennessee Titans got in as the conference’s lowest seed and proceeded to post two road upsets to advance to the AFC title game.
Neither Vegas nor our projection model is giving the seventh-seeded Broncos a great chance to duplicate that feat in the franchise’s first playoff game in nine years. And rightly so when the first test comes against a powerhouse Buffalo Bills team that produced a league-best plus-133 point differential while going 8-0 at home in the regular season.
The scuffling Steelers may be in an even more difficult predicament, with our supercomputer giving them just a 21.8% chance of overtaking the rival Ravens this Saturday in their second visit to Baltimore in three weeks.
Pittsburgh will be counting on its back class to overcome the odds as one of only three 2024 playoff teams with both a coach (Mike Tomlin) and quarterback (Russell Wilson) who have won Super Bowls, joining the reigning Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams in that category.
Wilson, incidentally, is the last rookie quarterback to win his postseason debut on the road when he did so with the Seattle Seahawks in 2012, what seems like a lifetime ago. Bo Nix will be looking to end that drought when he leads the Broncos into Buffalo for Sunday’s showdown with the heavily-favored Bills.
The AFC appears to be top heavy, with our model high on the Chiefs (31.5%), Bills (25.5%) and Ravens (18.3%) to reach the Super Bowl. We then have a gap before the Los Angeles Chargers at 10.5%, and the supercomputer essentially gives the Steelers (4.8%), Broncos (4.8%) and Houston Texans (4.5%), little to no chance of playing in New Orleans on Feb. 9 for the Lombardi Trophy.
But before we get there, here’s one key question each of this weekend’s underdogs must answer in order to pull off the upset in the AFC bracket. We’ll also include each game’s SmartRating, which ranges from 0-100 based on complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The excitement scale translates: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (11-6) AT HOUSTON TEXANS (10-7)
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 11, 4:30 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 83
- Line: Chargers by 3.0
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Chargers (58.1%)
One Big Question: Can C.J. Stroud break out of his second-half slump against the Chargers’ tough defense?
The Texans are the largest home underdogs of the weekend, mainly due to winning the weak AFC South despite a sub-.500 record (4-5) over the regular season’s second half. They’re still more than capable of advancing to the divisional round for a second straight year, provided quarterback C.J. Stroud recaptures the form that made him a landslide winner of the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Houston is 9-0 this season when Stroud records a passer rating of 90 or better and 1-7 when that number has dipped below 80. And unfortunately for Texans fans, there’s been more mediocre outings than magnificent ones out of their franchise signal-caller over the past two months.
The Texans haven’t been the same since ultra-steady veteran wide receiver Stefon Diggs tore his ACL in midseason, and the season-ending knee injury fellow wideout Tank Dell suffered in a Week 16 loss at Kansas City has only exacerbated the situation.
Diggs’ injury was still the biggest domino to fall. Houston pass catchers have a combined open percentage of 70.0 since the four-time Pro Bowler went down, the second-lowest rate in the NFL since Week 9 and an obvious correlation to Stroud’s struggles down the stretch.
Stroud has also had his troubles when facing top-level teams, having gone 1-5 with eight interceptions and a pedestrian 71.9 passer rating against this season’s playoff qualifiers.
Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter and the Chargers could make for another tough day with a unit that yielded the lowest burn-allowed rate (41.2%) and third-lowest open-allowed percentage (71.5) in addition to surrendering the fewest points in the NFL in the regular season.
Houston’s defense, which ranks second overall in EVE (efficiency vs. expected), should be able to prevent a Chargers offense that was held under 300 total yards in five of its seven matchups with 2024 playoff teams from going crazy.
Still, the Texans are going to need Stroud and his makeshift group of receivers to pose at least a reasonable threat to have the best chance of extending their season.
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-7) AT BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-5)
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 11, 8 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 78
- Line: Ravens by 9.5
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Ravens (80.3%)
One Big Question: Can Russell Wilson still cook, or is he simply cooked?
No team comes into the playoffs with less momentum than the Steelers, who closed out the regular season with four straight defeats to squander the two-game lead they held over Lamar Jackson and the eventual AFC North champion Ravens entering the final four weeks of play.
That downward spiral coincided with a massive decline in productivity from a passing game that was absolutely humming over a 5-1 midseason stretch that began with Wilson’s return from a calf injury in Week 7. The Steelers churned out a league-high 21 pass plays of 25 or more yards in those six games while ranking third in the NFL in net passing yards per game (255.0) during that period.
But as the weather got colder, the offense did as well. The Steelers are dead last in the league in net passing yards (146.6) since Week 14, the explosive plays have dried up (four in the last five games), and Wilson’s accuracy has waned with a well-thrown percentage 10 points lower over his last five starts compared to his first six of 2024.
Now, at least some of that drop-off can be attributed to the absence of George Pickens, by far the Steelers’ best playmaker, for three December games that included the costly 34-17 Week 16 loss in Baltimore.
The dynamic wide receiver finished tied for third in the NFL with 14 receptions of at least 25 or more yards despite the missed time, and was a factor in Pittsburgh’s 18-16 home win over the Ravens in Week 11 with eight catches totaling 89 yards.
Pickens is now back healthy, but questions still linger as to whether Wilson’s 36-year-old arm and body have worn down over the rigors of a 13th NFL season. One positive is that he’s still throwing the deep ball with nearly the same aplomb as he has over the course of a potentially Hall of Fame-bound career, as his 48.8% completion rate on throws of 21 or more air yards is the second highest of any quarterback with at least 20 such attempts in 2024.
The Steelers aren’t likely to move the ball effectively on the ground against a Baltimore defense that allowed the fewest rushing yards per game (80.1), the fewest rushing yards before contact (2.1) and the lowest rate of running plays of 10-plus yards (6.5%) during the regular season.
Therefore, a clash between familiar foes who always seem to play one another to the wire (nine of the last 10 meetings have been decided by seven or less points) could come down to how successful the Steelers can be in coming up with the splash plays that were so prevalent during their midseason run.
DENVER BRONCOS (10-7) AT BUFFALO BILLS (13-4)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 12, 1 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 79
- Line: Bills by 8.5
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Bills (76.3%)
One Big Question: Denver’s defense has been very good. But is it good enough to slow down Josh Allen?
After delivering a spectacular regular season that seems likely to culminate in his first NFL MVP award, Allen next takes on the formidable challenge of trying to dissect a Denver defense that’s played a vital part in the Broncos’ first playoff trip since Peyton Manning traded in his cleats and Lombardi Trophy to be a full-time commercial pitchman following the 2015 campaign.
The 2024 Broncos may be taking home some individual hardware as well with lockdown cornerback Patrick Surtain, who posted the fourth-lowest burn-allowed rate (38.9%) among players targeted 50 or more times at the position, a prime candidate for NFL Defensive Player of the Year honors. The unit is far from a one-man show, though.
Denver led the NFL with 63 sacks and was the only team with four players (Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper, Zach Allen, John-Franklin Myers) with 7.0 or more. Zach Allen led all interior linemen with 18.0 adjusted sacks as one of the most egregious omissions from the AFC Pro Bowl squad.
It’ll be strength on strength when the Bills offense takes the field. Though Buffalo finished a middling 13th in pressure rate allowed at 40.2%, it permitted a league-low 14.0 sacks – mainly due to Josh Allen’s remarkable knack for evading pursuers and extending plays with his linebacker-sized frame.
Bringing the star quarterback to the ground will be a daunting but necessary task for Denver, which went 8-3 when registering 3.0 sacks or more but 2-4 when below that standard. The Bills surrendered 3.0 sacks only one time this season, the 35-10 Week 4 loss to the Ravens that stands as the low point of an otherwise excellent run.
The Broncos can’t allow themselves to get into a shootout with the AFC’s highest-scoring team, as they’ve won just once in six games when giving up 20 or more points. And that victory, a 41-32 triumph over the Browns in Week 13, was a result of getting two Pick-6s of Jameis Winston despite the mercurial Cleveland quarterback putting up nearly 500 passing yards.
Denver is also 8-0 when holding opposing quarterbacks to a passer rating of 85 or below, another reason why it’s a must for the Broncos to use their stout pass rush and tight man-coverage schemes to prevent Allen and Buffalo’s passing game from developing a rhythm.
It took until the 272nd and final game of the 2024 regular season to determine the seedings for the NFC playoffs.
And now that we know the matchups for Super Wild Card Weekend, the NFC side of the bracket is as wide open as ever and it’s anyone’s guess who will emerge as the conference’s representative for the Super Bowl. Luckily, we have a supercomputer crunching the numbers to determine which team has the highest probability of advancing.
In the NFC, Jared Goff and the Detroit Lions secured the coveted top seed, first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with an emphatic 31-9 home win over the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night in Week 18. That result dropped the Vikings to the No. 5 seed, and they’re really the only team from the NFC we don’t see reaching the Super Bowl, giving them just a 5.7% chance.
The Lions (26.3%) and Philadelphia Eagles (18.8%) are the conference championship favorites, but we’re not counting out the Los Angeles Rams (15.3%), Green Bay Packers (11.7%), Washington Commanders (11.6%) or Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10.7%).
But before we get too far ahead of ourselves, we have wild-card games to get to. Here’s one big question for each matchup, and how things could transpire on the field.
GREEN BAY PACKERS (11-6) at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (14-3)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 12, 4:30 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 83
- Line: Eagles by 5.0
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Eagles (64.4%)
One Big Question: Who will be able to stop the run?
Just over four months after squaring off against one another in Brazil on the Friday of Week 1, the Packers and Eagles will open the NFC portion of the playoffs with a berth in the divisional round on the line.
Philadelphia is the NFC East champs and conference’s No. 2 seed, and its chances of making a run at the Super Bowl comes down to the health of its starting quarterback, who has missed the final two regular-season games with an injury. Green Bay is the seventh seed, and its chances of making a deep playoff run depends on the health of its QB, who was injured in the season finale.
Jordan Love hurt his throwing elbow in Green Bay’s 24-22 loss to the Chicago Bears on Sunday, though he said he should be good by this weekend. After the loss, Packers coach Matt LaFleur said Love could’ve come back into the game but was kept out as a precaution. Love’s top deep threat wasn’t as fortunate, though, as Christian Watson was carted off the field Sunday with a torn ACL.
Jalen Hurts has missed Philadelphia’s last two games after sustaining a concussion in a 36-33 loss to the Commanders in Week 16 – the Eagles’ only blemish in their last 13 games. Though even if he was cleared, it’s unlikely he would’ve played in the season finale, seeing as coach Nick Sirianni decided to rest 18 regulars.
Hurts has returned to practice and is projected to play Sunday. So is Love, though there is trepidation about the condition of his elbow.
We might not know the status of either quarterback until closer to kickoff, and if neither is at full strength, both teams will likely rely heavily on their ground game.
Everyone is familiar with Saquon Barkley’s achievements this season, as he flirted with the single-season rushing record before being rested in the finale. He finished with 2,005 yards to fall exactly 100 yards behind Eric Dickerson’s mark set with the Los Angeles Rams in 1984.
In his first game in an Eagles uniform back in Brazil against the Packers, Barkley rushed 24 times for 109 yards and two touchdowns and also caught an 18-yard TD pass in a 34-29 win, endearing himself to the Philly fanbase. At that time, though, Philadelphia’s offense was not yet centered around its newest offseason weapon and potential MVP candidate.
In the opener, the Eagles ran on 38 of their 74 offensive plays – a rate of 51.4%. From Weeks 2-17 with Barkley in the fold, they ran on 57.4% of offensive plays – the highest rate in the NFL.
Despite being the focal point of Philadelphia’s offense, few teams are able to contain Barkley. He ranks first in the league in total EVE, which measures the average yards gained compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation. He registered 1.62 average yards gained on the ground on the season, calculating a negative EVE in only two games, for a monster total of 555.9.
2024 Total EVE Rushing Leaders
Playing behind an offensive line with three Pro Bowlers in center Cam Jurgens, left guard Landon Dickerson and right tackle Lane Johnson certainly helps, as Barkley averages 4.11 yards before contact – the best in the NFL among the 46 running backs with a minimum of 100 carries.
Whereas Barkley is finding plenty of open spaces to run before being touched, Green Bay’s Josh Jacobs has a knack for picking up yards after being hit. Only Derrick Henry (685) and Barkley (595) have amassed more yards after contact than Jacobs’ 581, and no player has totaled more missed tackles than Jacobs’ 72.
In the opener, Jacobs forced Philadelphia’s defense to miss four potential tackles on his way to rushing for 84 yards with his longest run going for 32 yards. The Eagles struggled to stop the run, as backup Emanuel Wilson rushed for 46 yards on just four carries and the Packers averaged 7.8 yards per attempt.
Green Bay has been stout against the run down the stretch, limiting opposing teams to successful running plays 29.2% of the time since Week 12 – the NFL’s third-best rate. In terms of EVE, Green Bay is allowing an average of 0.3 yards less than expected on running plays, and only four teams have produced a better mark this season.
Barkley hasn’t gone up against one of the league’s better run defenses in more than a month, but even in that game against the Ravens’ top-ranked run defense in Week 13, he averaged 4.7 yards per carry and gained 107 yards with a touchdown in the Eagles’ 24-19 win.
Both defenses will be keyed in on the opposing running backs, and the team that is able to shut down the ground game and force the offense to pass could be the one that moves on to the divisional round.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS (12-5) at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (10-7)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 12, 8 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 86
- Line: Bucs by 3.0
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Buccaneers (62.1%)
One Big Question: Can Washington keep Tampa Bay’s high-flying offense in check?
We’ve got another rematch from Week 1, but unlike the Brazil showcase that featured a couple of heavyweights in the Eagles and Packers, few would’ve predicted these two teams would be facing each other in a wild-card matchup.
Sure, the Buccaneers seemed like a safe bet to reach the postseason, given their recent dominance of a division that’s been one of the weaker ones in the NFL over the past few seasons, but the Commanders were coming off a 13-loss season and breaking in a rookie quarterback.
Jayden Daniels showed some first-game jitters with three fumbles in a 37-20 loss at Tampa Bay back in Week 1, but he quickly found his rhythm and is the odds-on favorite to be AP Offensive Rookie of the Year. Although he was pulled at halftime of Sunday’s 23-19 win over the Dallas Cowboys due to leg soreness, Commanders coach Dan Quinn downplayed the severity of the injury and didn’t believe it was anything to worry about.
As long as Daniels doesn’t have any lingering leg issues, we should see plenty of points in this one. These teams rank fourth and fifth in points per game (Buccaneers, 29.5; Commanders, 28.5) and third and fourth in successful play rate (Buccaneers, 44.8; Commanders, 44.3).
Both defenses will be challenged, but we’ll take a look at Washington’s seeing as it has already been picked apart once by Baker Mayfield this season and faces bigger potential mismatches.
Back in the opener, Mayfield was terrific, setting the tone for what would be a phenomenal season. But he’s flown under the radar with Barkley, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson garnering much of the national attention. And while much has been made of Daniels’ stellar rookie season, Mayfield did throw for nearly 1,000 more yards and 16 more touchdowns.
In Week 1, Mayfield completed 80% of his passes for 289 yards with four touchdowns for a 146.4 passer rating, as Tampa Bay cruised to a 17-point win. Mike Evans was on the receiving end of two of those touchdowns and hauled in 61 yards receiving as he began his march toward an 11th consecutive season with at least 1,000 receiving yards to match Hall of Famer Jerry Rice for the most in the NFL.
Evans is one of the league’s most productive receivers and creates matchup problems for Washington’s banged-up and suspect secondary. Evans is adept at beating his man in coverage, registering a burn percentage of 70.0 – fourth among the 40 receivers targeted at least 90 times. Washington’s defense, meanwhile, has a league-worst 53.7 burn-allowed percentage.
The Commanders are the only team from the above chart to make the playoffs, and in fact, the next four teams on the list (New England Patriots, New York Giants, Arizona Cardinals and Jacksonville Jaguars) also didn’t come close to sniffing the postseason.
There’s a correlation between the frequency opposing receivers beat their defender and a team’s overall win-loss record, though Washington managed to overcome its deficiency thanks to its own prolific offense. However, it may not be as lucky in a matchup with Mayfield, who is one of the best at delivering a precision pass, as his well-thrown rate of 87.0 ranks third among qualifying quarterbacks.
Help could be on the way for the Commanders with cornerback Marshon Lattimore hopeful of playing. The four-time Pro Bowler has a history with Evans’ dating to Lattimore’s days with the New Orleans Saints, so not only could Lattimore’s potential availability shore up the secondary, but it also would add a level of spice to the matchup.
Lattimore has missed the last two games after re-injuring his left hamstring, and he has only played in two games for Washington since being acquired at the trade deadline, so he may not be close to full strength. In limited time this season, he’s posted a burn-allowed percentage of 44.8 – better than the league average of 49.9 – but Washington’s other corners have been vulnerable.
Benjamin St-Juste, who was demoted with Lattimore’s return – has a burn-allowed percentage of 57.9 – the fifth worst among the 56 corners with at least 350 plays in pass coverage. Mike Sainristil, who has started the last 15 games, has a 53.3. When St-Juste is on the field, Mayfield will likely be looking in his direction often, as he’s been targeted on 20.2% of his plays in pass coverage – fifth highest among qualifiers.
We’ll see if Mayfield is able to take advantage of any mismatches and find Evans or Jalen McMillan or tight end Cade Otton or whoever else is open to move the ball down the field and into the end zone.
MINNESOTA VIKINGS (14-3) at LOS ANGELES RAMS (10-7)
- Date: Monday, Jan. 13, 8 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 87
- Line: Vikings by 1.0
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Vikings (51.5%)
One Big Question: Can the Rams rattle Darnold or will the Vikings QB be able to bounce back?
The final game of the weekend with a berth in the divisional round at stake pits the NFC West champion Rams (10-7) against a Vikings team that was oh so close to already being in the divisional round. Only two NFL teams won more games than the Vikings (14-3) this season, and only two teams beat them all season.
Hard to believe that a team that enjoyed such an outstanding regular season has to open the playoffs on the road, but such is the case for Minnesota. And if that wasn’t enough, the Vikings will be facing one of the teams that beat them.
It may seem a bit unfair, but the Vikings wouldn’t be in this situation and would simply be hosting a divisional round game next week had they been able to win last week. And they didn’t come close to winning.
The Vikings arrived in Detroit this past Sunday riding a nine-game winning streak behind a potent offense featuring a resurgent Sam Darnold at quarterback and one of the NFL’s best big-play receivers in Justin Jefferson.
Darnold picked a horrible time to have a horrible game, as the former No. 3 overall pick was out of sync with Jefferson and his receivers all night, completing just 18-of-41 passes for 166 yards without a touchdown or interception. Not all the blame falls on Darnold, but the Lions may have constructed the blueprint to fluster the QB in their convincing 22-point rout.
Detroit overran the Minnesota offense with a relentless blitz, putting immense pressure on Darnold. In all, a whopping 21 of his pass attempts came when he was facing a blitz. That’s a staggering amount. There was only one other game this season he had double-digit pass attempts while being blitzed, and that was also against the Lions, and also a loss, back in Week 7, when he threw 10 passes while being blitzed in a 31-29 defeat.
As one might expect, Darnold was out of sorts when facing extra pass rushers, missing a wide open Jefferson in the end zone at one point and producing a well-thrown percentage of just 52.4 on his 21 throws when blitzed. On his other passes, he threw a well-thrown ball 82.4% of the time.
The Rams don’t blitz much – their blitz rate of 25.8% is eighth lowest in the league – but they did blitz a bit more in the first matchup of the season with the Vikings. Back at SoFi Stadium in Week 8, Los Angeles blitzed on 30.0% of pass plays and generated a pressure rate of 50.0%, while sacking Darnold three times in pulling out a 30-20 victory.
Los Angeles is one of three teams to have at least three players register 8.0 or more sacks (the Vikings being another) led by Braden Fiske with 8.5, Kobie Turner with 8.0 and Byron Young with 7.5. The player Darnold and the Minnesota O-line may want to be most concerned about, though, is Jared Verse.
The standout rookie may have only 4.5 sacks but he was constantly wreaking havoc in the opponent’s backfield and putting pressure on the quarterback. The Vikings, though, are plenty familiar with Verse. In the first matchup, Verse registered 1.5 sacks while being credited with adjusted sacks on the other two, and he also had three QB hits on Darnold.
On the season among the 48 edge rushers with at least 225 pass rushes, no player had a higher rate of hurrying the quarterback than Verse at 23.2.
Turner also excels at beating his blocker and gaining a free path to the quarterback, recording a hurry rate of 18.2 – the third highest among the 38 defensive tackles with a minimum of 175 pass rushes.
Darnold exceeded all expectations with his play through the first 17 weeks of the season to make him one of the favorites for the AP Comeback Player of the Year Award, but his unsightly performance in the finale put the Vikings in a precarious position.
If the Rams can replicate the Lions’ approach and put Darnold in an uncomfortable position, they could bring Minnesota’s season to a sudden end and be the ones playing in the divisional round.
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