Four teams are just one win from playing in the Super Bowl. Getting that victory, however, certainly won’t be easy. We reveal our NFL playoff predictions for the championship round.
Championship Sunday is upon us, and it’s filled with star power.
First up in the NFC title game, we’ve got the favorite to win AP Offensive Rookie of the Year in Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels facing off against the likely AP Offensive Player of the Year in Philadelphia Eagles running back Saquon Barkley in a matchup between NFC East rivals.
In the AFC championship game, we’ve got the MVP frontrunner in Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen going up against well, suppose there’s no major individual awards for any player on the Kansas City Chiefs, just that Patrick Mahomes is trying to lead the franchise to an unprecedented third consecutive Super Bowl title and has knocked Allen and the Bills out of the playoffs in three of the last four seasons.
One of these four teams will be lifting the Lombardi Trophy after Super Bowl 59 in New Orleans in a little over two weeks, but before these teams can turn their attention to that prize, they’ll be playing for the AFC and NFC championships.
Prior to the start of the season, our supercomputer didn’t think too highly of either of the NFC contenders playing for a championship. In defense of our projection model, few could’ve predicted Daniels making an effortless transition into the NFL and putting together one of the best rookie seasons in league history and Barkley bouncing back to enjoy one of the best seasons by a running back in NFL history in his first year with a new team.
They are now just one win from playing in the Super Bowl. Getting that win, however, won’t be easy.
NFC Championship: Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (16-3)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 26, 3:00 pm ET
- SmartRating: 94
- Line: Eagles by 4.5
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner (With Win Probability): Eagles (54.1%)
One Big Question: Can Jayden Daniels add another chapter to the Commanders’ storybook season and actually carry them to the Super Bowl?
A second obvious question for the NFC championship game on Sunday, is can the Commanders stop Saquon Barkley and the Eagles’ prolific running game.
But the simple answer to that question is probably not.
We’ll dive into that question in a bit, but let’s first examine Daniels, who will be tasked with putting Washington’s offense on his back to counter each of Philly’s punches.
Daniels was able to do that in the last meeting just over one month ago. In Week 16, he completed 24-of-39 passes for 258 yards with a career-high five touchdown throws – with the last coming on a 9-yarder to Jamison Crowder with 6 seconds to go – to rally Washington to a 36-33 victory over the visiting Eagles.
He wasn’t as efficient in the Commanders’ trip to Philadelphia in Week 11, though, going 22 of 32 for 191 yards with one TD and one interception as Washington mustered just 264 yards – its second fewest of the season – and the Eagles pulled away for a 26-18 win.
The Commanders followed that with another loss, but they’ve reeled off seven consecutive victories since then, with the last two coming in the wild-card and divisional rounds. Philadelphia’s loss at Washington on Dec. 22 marks the only blemish on the Eagles’ record since their Week 5 bye, as they’ve won 14 of their last 15 games.
The Eagles, however, weren’t at full strength in the last meeting with the Commanders. Jalen Hurts exited in the first quarter with a concussion and he may not be at full strength in this one either after suffering a knee injury in the second half of Sunday’s 28-22 division-round win over the Los Angeles Rams at snowy Lincoln Financial Field. He appeared to be favoring his left leg after it got rolled up on, but managed to play through the injury to help the Eagles reach the conference championship game for the second time in three years.
Washington is in the NFC title game for the first time since the 1991 season with a stunning 45-31 win over the top-seeded Detroit Lions last Saturday. It’s been an unbelievable turnaround for the Commanders after they went 4-13 a season ago, and Daniels is the reason why they’re one of the final four teams standing.
With 3,568 passing yards and 891 rushing yards, Daniels became the first QB in NFL history with at least 3,500 passing yards and 800 rushing yards in his rookie season. In last weekend’s upset at Ford Field, he completed 22-of-31 passes for 299 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions for a 122.9 passer rating. He also ran for 51 yards to become the first rookie QB to pass for at least 275 yards and rush for 50 or more yards in a playoff game.
Daniels may be labeled as a rookie, but he’s playing more like a seasoned veteran – especially when facing the heat of a pass rush – and has been playing his best football of the season when it’s mattering most.
The Lions tried to rattle Daniels the same way they harassed the Minnesota Vikings’ Sam Darnold in the season finale, blitzing 65.8% of the time last Saturday. But it backfired with the first-year QB picking apart the Detroit defense and the Lions were unable to sack him once. He completed 10 of his 14 throws while being blitzed for 188 yards with one touchdown, eight first downs and a 137.5 passer rating.
His performance was reminiscent of what he did against the Eagles in Week 16, when he completed 7-of-11 passes against the blitz for 163 yards with two touchdowns, one interception and a 108.9 QB rating.
The Eagles have the NFL’s second-lowest blitz rate at 19.9 and would be wise to avoid such a tactic given Daniels’ proficiency at exploiting it, but even a simple pass rush is something he’s proven he can best.
Since Washington’s winning streak began in Week 13, no QB is throwing a higher rate of catchable passes while being pressured or throwing to an open receiver at a higher frequency than Daniels at 80.6%. His completion rate of 74.2 on throws while being pressured ranks second among the 30 quarterbacks who have attempted at least 30 such passes.
This is a stark difference from the season’s first 12 weeks, when he completed just 55.3% of his passes while being pressured and only 68% of his throws were deemed catchable balls.
With Daniels leading the way against the Lions, the Commanders racked up 481 yards of offense and their 45 points were the second most in a playoff game in franchise history behind a 51-7 thrashing of the Los Angeles Rams in a divisional round game on New Year’s Day 1984.
A similar offensive performance may be necessary against an Eagles team that has scored at least 20 points in a single-season franchise record 15 consecutive games and is poised to extend that streak given the favorable matchup.
Set to face off for the third time in less than three months, the Commanders and Eagles are plenty familiar with one another. And even if they weren’t division rivals, there’s no major surprise in what the Eagles like to do when they have the ball.
Led by the NFL’s rushing leader in Barkley, Philadelphia is one of only three teams to run the ball on more than half its offensive plays, calling running plays a league-high 55.9% of the time.
And although defenses know a run play is coming, they can’t stop it. In terms of EVE, which measures the average yards gained compared to the league-wide expected amount in a given situation, the Eagles are averaging 0.8 rushing yards more than expected – the league’s fourth-highest rate.
None of this bodes well for the Commanders, who had one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL during the regular season, couldn’t contain Barkley in the two regular-season meetings and were gashed on the ground in the divisional round.
During the regular season, Washington ranked 30th in rush defense, allowing an average of 137.5 yards per game, and allows 0.6 rush yards more than expected – the league’s third-worst run defense EVE (see below).
The Commanders allow 3.4 yards before contact, and only the Rams permit more at 3.6. And Los Angeles can thank Barkley for that inflated rate, as he averaged 6.96 yards before contact last week.
Washington may have upset Detroit last weekend, but it was no thanks to its run defense.
Jahmyr Gibbs rushed for 105 yards and two touchdowns on just 14 carries, as the Lions averaged 6.5 yards before contact and had seven running plays go for 10 or more yards en route to amassing 201 yards on the ground.
Barkley, meanwhile, eclipsed the 200-yard mark by himself last week, rushing for 205 yards – the fourth most in a playoff game in the Super Bowl era. He had touchdown runs of 62 and 78 yards and also caught four passes for 27 yards.
None of this should come as a surprise to the Commanders.
Back in Week 11, Barkley ran for 146 yards with a touchdown run of 23 yards and another TD on a 39-yarder, while also catching a pair of passes for 52 yards. In the Week 16 rematch, he ran for 150 rushing yards, scoring on a 2-yard run to cap Philadelphia’s first drive and on a 68-yard run with just over 2 minutes to go in the first quarter to make the score 21-7.
In 11 career games against the Commanders, Barkley averages 137.5 scrimmage yards. Only one player in NFL history has averaged more yards per game against a single opponent with a minimum of 10 games played and that is Hall of Famer Jim Brown, who averaged 147.9 yards against the Eagles.
Based on the prior matchups and everything we know about Washington’s run defense, little suggests the Commanders will be able to curb Barkley’s production.
No pressure then on Washington’s young quarterback. Pressure, however, is something Daniels has been able to overcome.
This will be the 20th game of Daniels’ career and he’s trying to do something that’s never been done before by a rookie quarterback and that is lead his team to the Super Bowl.
Daniels is no ordinary rookie QB, however, as he’s been playing his best football since the calendar flipped to December. We’re now in late January, and the opportunity is there for him to have the Commanders playing in February.
That seemed unheard of before the season kicked off in September, but Daniels has risen to the occasion in the playoffs. The stage doesn’t seem too big for him, and he hasn’t wilted in the face of pressure in these high-stakes playoff games.
One more obstacle remains, as he attempts to rewrite history and lead the Commanders to the world’s biggest stage with an appearance in the Super Bowl. Can he possibly keep this incredible ride going and deliver again?
We’ll find out late Sunday afternoon.
-MB
AFC Championship: Buffalo Bills (15-4) at Kansas City Chiefs (16-2)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 26, 6:30 pm ET
- SmartRating: 94
- Line: Chiefs by 1.5
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Bills (53.2%)
The Bills invoke images of picturesque snow-globe games, chicken wings and the “Bills mafia” fans jumping through tables during tailgate parties. Above all else, though, the Bills franchise is known most for coming up just short in the end.
From 1990-93, the Bills infamously lost four straight Super Bowls, with the Dallas Cowboys representing the unconquerable foe who won back-to-back titles to end Buffalo’s run.
Fast forward three decades, and the modern vintage of the Bills has re-infused their fans with the highest of hopes, but a familiar foe stands in the way Sunday: the Chiefs.
Buffalo has led in all three recent playoff loses to the Chiefs – including fourth-quarter leads in the last two – adding to the Bills’ frustration and heartbreak.
Most sportsbooks opened with the Chiefs being either a point or half-point favorite, less than typical advantage given to the home team. Kansas City money has moved the spread, with the Chiefs now 1.5-point favorites, but our prediction model leans the other way. Our model gives the Bills a 53.2% chance at moving on to the Super Bowl.
The last two postseason meetings between these teams were decided by a combined nine points, and another even matchup is expected between the top teams in the AFC this season.
When these teams met in the regular season, the Bills walked away with a 30-21 home victory, but that game had a one-score margin throughout until 2:17 remaining in the fourth quarter, when Allen shut the door with a rushing touchdown.
With teams so evenly matched and so familiar with one another, three key areas could decide who will represent the AFC in Super Bowl LIX.
1. Turnovers
Obviously, turnovers play a huge role in deciding the winner of every football game, especially in the NFL. But the Bills and Chiefs have executed ball security to an extreme – and even historic – level this year.
One of the reasons Allen ended up as an MVP finalist this year is that he threw a career-low six interceptions after having 18 passes picked last season.
The Bills committed a startlingly low eight turnovers this season and had none in their divisional win over the Baltimore Ravens. In fact, Buffalo had zero turnovers in their two playoff games last season, giving it an NFL-record eight in a 20-game span.
Besides Allen, no one else on the team even has a turnover. Buffalo only lost two fumbles this season, both on passing plays. With the league’s second-best offense boasting such surefire ball protection, the Bills would have an advantage over almost any team, but the Chiefs’ turnover numbers are equally stunning.
The last time Kansas City turned the ball over was during its Week 11 loss to Buffalo, in which Mahomes threw his 10th and 11th interceptions of the season – tied for the league high at the time.
Including their divisional round win over the Houston Texans, the Chiefs have now played an unprecedented eight games without committing a turnover.
Mahomes clearly turned a corner around midseason and began protecting the ball better.
Since Week 12, he’s thrown only two passes that reasonably could have been intercepted out of 231 adjusted attempts. That 0.87% pickable pass rate is nearly four times better than the NFL average over that span (3.34%).
With two teams so flawlessly executing with ball security, just one rogue mistake could make the difference in Sunday’s conference title game.
Buffalo’s defense appears to be more likely to force a rare turnover in this game. Including the playoffs, the Bills have forced an NFL-leading 35 turnovers, while the Chiefs are tied for 14th with 22 forced turnovers.
2. Yards After the Catch
For all the attention and praise heaped on Mahomes and Allen leading up to this game, both benefit from play design and teammates who generate yards after the catch.
No two teams gained a greater percentage of their gross passing yards after the catch than Buffalo (60.2%) and Kansas City (57.9%). That kind of passing game helps negate pass rush and puts pressure on opposing defenses to make tackles in space.
Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs with 417 yards after the catch, and Andy Reid loves to get the rookie speedster the ball on screens. Travis Kelce is a matchup nightmare and ranks second on the team with 356 yards after the catch.
While Kansas City’s defense performed better overall than Buffalo’s unit (19.2 points allowed per game allowed versus 21.6), the Bills have been better at limiting receivers after the catch.
The Chiefs will be tasked with limiting the opportunities of Khalil Shakir, who ranks third in the NFL with 619 yards after the catch and is among the top five with a 8.1 yards after catch per reception average.
3. Star Quarterback Play
Allen has done everything the Bills could have asked of him this season. He’s had his most efficient season since his 2020 breakout campaign, posting a 101.4 passer rating and averaging 7.7 yards per attempt.
He added 531 yards and 12 touchdowns on the ground and is still capable of carrying Buffalo’s ground game in clutch situations. Winning this game, however, could come down to how Allen performs under pressure.
The Chiefs pressured opposing quarterbacks on 43.7% of adjusted pass attempts this season, ranking seventh in the league. Despite Allen taking only 14 sacks, Buffalo’s offensive line graded out near league average with a 40.2% pressure-allowed rate.
Allen could have defenders in his face often on Sunday, and these scenarios have traditionally been boom-or-bust for him. He’s completed 55.3% of his attempts while under pressure this season, below the league average of 57.5%. But he averages 12.96 air yards per attempt while pressured, the second most in the league.
With his size and improvisation skills, Allen often resorts to backyard football when free rushers are approaching. Early in his career, his freewheeling scrambles led to turnovers, but he has just a 3.11% pickable pass rate while under pressure in 2024– well below the league average of 5.42%.
Blitzing Mahomes can be a dangerous proposition. Like Allen, Mahomes is a master improviser and can create big plays if he can escape the pocket. He has thrown an NFL-high 134 attempts while on the move this season, and he found an open target on 85.1% of those passes.
On the other hand, Mahomes was pressured more than ever this year and was sacked a career-high 36 times. He had a 90.6 passer rating against the blitz during the regular season, ranking 24th in a stat he used to dominate.
The Bills, however, do not blitz much. Buffalo has brought extra rushers on just 23.7% of snaps; only five teams blitzed less frequently. Even on third downs, when defensive coordinators love to turn up the heat, the Bills blitzed at a below-average rate.
But when they did rush five or more players, no one was better at shutting down quarterbacks than Buffalo. The Bills held QBs to a league-low 75.82 passer rating when they blitz.
The Bills could deviate from their typical game plan of conservative but effective defense, though that could allow Mahomes more chances to improvise for big plays and leave them vulnerable to screen passes.
The Bills have beaten the Chiefs in four straight regular-season meetings, but the postseason has belonged to Kansas City.
If Allen were to lead the Bills to a victory Sunday, he would cement Buffalo-Kansas City as one of the great rivalries in the modern NFL and would give his franchise a chance at its first Super Bowl title.
If Mahomes were to emerge victorious, the Chiefs would continue their quest for the first Super Bowl three-peat, and the Bills would once again be the team that couldn’t quite go all the way.
-MK
