We provide one big question to track and reveal our model’s NFL playoff predictions for all four games of the divisional round.
AFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson have scores to settle, and they have nothing to do with individual accolades.
It’s more or less a fait accompli at this point that one of those two superstar quarterbacks will be taking home the NFL MVP award in a few weeks.
And when Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens enter Buffalo’s Highmark Stadium this Sunday to take on Allen’s Bills in the AFC divisional playoffs, one will at least extend his opportunity to exorcise the postseason demons that have haunted the top two graduates of the stellar 2018 quarterback draft class throughout their prolific careers.
The Bills have lost in the divisional round in each of the previous three seasons, with the last two defeats (27-10 to the Cincinnati Bengals in 2022, 27-24 to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2023) both occurring on their home turf.
Jackson, meanwhile, has yet to win two games in a single postseason after coming up short in two prior attempts, including a 17-3 loss to Allen’s Bills in Buffalo during the 2020 campaign. And the two-time NFL MVP’s overall numbers in those contests (434 total passing yards, 55.7% completions, 1 passing TD, 70.0 passer rating) have hardly been iconic.
With a plot consisting of the league’s two premier passers of 2024 leading two legitimate Super Bowl contenders, it’s easy to see why the Baltimore-Buffalo game received a 92 on our SmartRatings scale – the highest of this weekend’s four matchups.
SmartRatings is an AI-based platform that ranks sporting events on a scale of 0-100 based on six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz. The excitement scale translates: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs and the Houston Texans are also part of a loaded AFC bracket that contains the conference’s same four participants as last season, just the second time that’s happened since the NFL switched to its current eight-division format in 2002.
That first such instance, which took place in the 2012 season, was a very good year for the Ravens. Baltimore upset the top-seeded Denver Broncos on the road in the divisional round in an epic 38-35 thriller that stands as the most recent double-overtime game in NFL history, and eventually captured the franchise’s second of two Lombardi Trophies when coach John Harbaugh beat his brother Jim’s San Francisco 49ers in the Super Bowl.
And if you’re looking for some more potential karma, that Baltimore-San Francisco game was the most recent Super Bowl held in the New Orleans Superdome, the site of this year’s event.
But for the Ravens to repeat history – or the Chiefs to create some as the first team to win three straight Super Bowls – they’ll need to answer one big question this weekend:
Houston Texans (10-7) at Kansas City Chiefs (15-2)
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 18, 4:30 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 89
- Line: Chiefs by 8.5
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Chiefs (75.7%)
One Big Question: Can the Texans get a clean game out of C.J. Stroud, and force Patrick Mahomes into some mistakes?
The top-seeded Chiefs will host the Texans four weeks after these two teams squared off in Kansas City in Week 16, a 27-19 victory for the home side in which underdog Houston largely played the reigning Super Bowl champs on even terms with the exception of two very critical areas.
Houston was foiled that day by two Stroud interceptions that the Chiefs turned into 10 points as well as an inability to convert inside the red zone, an ongoing problem for the AFC South titleholders this season. The Texans settled for field goals on two of their three trips inside the Kansas City 20, while the Chiefs scored three touchdowns in five red-zone opportunities (and they ran out the clock on the last one).
We highlighted last week how successful the Texans have been when Stroud plays at a high level and conversely struggles when he does as well, and taking care of the ball plays a big factor into that equation. The 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year threw just three interceptions with a low pickable pass percentage (PKP%) of 2.98 in Houston’s 10 regular-season wins. In its seven losses, Stroud was picked nine times with a combined PKP% of 5.29.
Stroud will need to keep the mistakes to a minimum this week, since his opponent hasn’t made any on offense in nearly two months.
The Chiefs ended another banner regular season by becoming just the second team since 1950 to go seven consecutive games without a turnover (the New England Patriots also went seven straight in 2010). Mahomes enters Saturday’s clash on a run of 237 straight pass attempts without an interception, the second-longest streak of his certain Hall of Fame career, and his 0.87% pickable pass rate since Week 12 is the lowest of any quarterback for that period.
And in case you didn’t know, Mahomes is pretty good come playoff time as well. The three-time Super Bowl MVP was intercepted just once while compiling a 0.88 PKP% as Kansas City ran the table with seven straight wins over the course of the 2022 and 2023 postseasons.
The Texans will present a challenge, however, with a defense flying high after picking Justin Herbert off four times to advance with last week’s 32-12 beatdown of the Los Angeles Chargers. That feat looks even more impressive considering Herbert threw a total of three interceptions in his 17 regular-season starts.
It’s vital that a Houston defense that finished second in the NFL in defensive EVE (Efficiency Versus Expected) and fifth with 29 takeaways during the regular season continues that trend, as no team in the league has been more dependent on getting points off of turnovers (26.9%) than the Texans in 2024.
Can the Texans do what many are considering the unthinkable and halt the Chiefs’ quest for an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat? Absolutely. Kansas City may be the least dominant two-loss team of the modern era, having produced an overall point differential of plus-59 that ranks 11th of this season’s 14 playoff participants.
But the Chiefs don’t beat themselves, therefore Stroud and the Texans can’t either in order to pull off what would be the biggest stunner of the weekend.
Baltimore Ravens (13-5) at Buffalo Bills (14-4)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 19, 6:30 p.m. ET
- SmartRating: 92
- Line: Ravens by 1.0
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Ravens (50.5%)
One Big Question: Can the Bills at least slow down Derrick Henry and the Ravens’ relentless running game?
Though Jackson was voted to the prestigious All-Pro first team, Allen remains a fairly heavy betting favorite to seize his first NFL MVP award heading into this colossal showdown between AFC heavyweights.
And the Bills might need him to be Superman on Sunday, as they drew quite possibly the worst possible matchup in a scorching-hot Ravens squad that handed Buffalo a 35-10 pummeling in Baltimore back in September.
The Ravens have been flat-out pulverizing the competition during a five-game winning streak they’ll carry into upstate New York, which includes a 31-2 dismantling of the Texans on Christmas Day and last week’s 28-14 opening-round playoff victory over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers that was more one-sided than the final score indicated.
They’ve done so largely on the back of an offensive line that helped them lead the NFL in rushing yards per game (187.6), yards per rushing play (5.6), rushing yards before contact (4.0) and rushing EVE in the regular season. Baltimore has rushed for 220 or more yards in each of its last four wins, becoming just the second team in 45 years to eclipse 200 in four straight games (the Chicago Bears did in five straight in 2022).
A few weeks back we laid out the one problem area that could derail a Super Bowl bid for several primary hopefuls, and defending the run was a clear-cut choice when discussing the Bills. Buffalo ranked in the bottom 28th percentile in yards before contact allowed (3.0) and run disruption rate (65.4) during the regular season, and was particularly susceptible to surrendering chunk plays via the ground.
No team had a higher percentage of rushing attempts that gained 10 or more yards during the regular season than the Ravens, with Jackson producing the highest rate of any player with at least 100 carries at a staggering 26.6% and Henry (13.8%) tied for fifth among running backs meeting those minimums.
That’s clearly cause for concern for a Buffalo defense that permitted big-play runs (14.3%) at the second-highest frequency heading into the playoffs.
Henry proved to be too much for the Bills to handle back in Week 4, as he ripped off a tone-setting 87-yard touchdown run on Baltimore’s first play from scrimmage and accounted for 199 of the Ravens’ 271 rushing yards that night. And despite logging over 350 touches on his now 31-year-old body this season, the onetime NFL Offensive Player of the Year has shown no indications of wearing down by averaging 158.3 yards and a healthy 6.5 yards per carry over Baltimore’s last four games.
Of course, Buffalo can counter the Ravens’ elite offense with one of its own, one that’s been held under 30 points only once as the Bills amassed their perfect 9-0 record at home following last week’s 31-7 rout of the Denver Broncos in the wild-card round.
But Allen can’t work his magic standing from the sidelines, as evidenced by the Bills’ 11-0 record this season when their time of possession has been 29 minutes or more and 3-4 mark when kept below that threshold.
The Ravens are going to do all they can to keep the ball out of Allen’s hands. And if they do, the Bills could be staring at another swift playoff departure.
NFC DIVISIONAL ROUND
After 61 days with NFL games dating back to the first week of September, we have just four days with games left in the season. And two of them are this weekend, so take advantage.
Following a Wild Card Weekend that saw five of the six home teams advance, it’s time to welcome each conference’s top seed. The Detroit Lions secured the NFC’s first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but our supercomputer currently doesn’t see them as the favorite to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
The supercomputer now calculates that the Philadelphia Eagles have a 31.0% chance of playing in New Orleans on Feb. 9 for the Lombardi Trophy, and predicts the Lions’ probability at 24.2%, just ahead of the Los Angeles Rams at 23.1% and the Washington Commanders at 21.6%.
We’re not counting any NFC team out at this point, which should make for an exciting divisional round and conference championship game.
Washington Commanders (13-5) at Detroit Lions (15-2)
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 18, 8:00 pm ET
- SmartRating: 90
- Line: Lions by 7.5
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Lions (80.2%)
One Big Question: Can the Lions contain Jayden Daniels and put an end to the Commanders’ improbable run?
Overcoming a slew of injuries and yet still plowing through the regular season en route to capturing the NFC’s coveted top seed, fans of the Detroit Lions – a franchise that was once the laughingstock of the NFL – must believe this year’s team is a team of destiny.
Washington’s fan base would like a quick word.
For decades, the Lions and Commanders had been two of the most downtrodden franchises in the NFL. Now, they are each one win away from playing in the NFC title game.
Detroit’s return to relevance began last season, as it earned its first division title since 1993, won its first playoff game since the 1991 season and fell one win short of playing in the franchise’s first Super Bowl. The Commanders were a 13-loss team a year ago, but behind the magic of Daniels, they had a 12-5 regular season.
The rookie then guided the Commanders to the franchise’s first playoff victory since the 2005 season with a 23-20 comeback win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in last Sunday’s wild-card game, as Zane Gonzalez’s 37-yard field deflected off the right upright and bounced through as time expired.
Just add that to the list of miraculous victories for the cardiac Commanders in the last month.
In Week 15, the Commanders beat New Orleans 20-19 after stopping the Saints’ two-point attempt with no time left. They then defeated the Eagles 36-33 on Daniels’ 9-yard touchdown pass to Jamison Crowder with 9 seconds left the Sunday before Christmas. In Week 17, they topped the Atlanta Falcons in OT and followed that up in the regular-season finale by squeaking by the Dallas Cowboys on a 5-yard TD pass from Marcus Mariota to Terry McLaurin with 3 seconds remaining.
Which brings us to the walk-off field goal in the wild-card round. It’s unfathomable that they’ve won each of those games on the final play from scrimmage, but here they are, a potential team of destiny just one win away from a berth in the NFC title game.
These are two of the NFL’s top offenses with the Lions averaging a league-best 33.2 points and the Commanders not far behind at 28.5. Washington scored points on exactly half of its 176 offensive drives during the regular season, and the only team to score on a higher rate of its offensive possessions was Detroit at 51.6%.
The Commanders aren’t as strong on the defensive side of the ball, ranking in the bottom half of the league in several metrics, so the high-powered Lions should be able to put up some points, especially with the expected return of one of their top playmakers in running back David Montgomery.
The Lions, meanwhile, also boast a strong defense (11th in defensive EVE), so the pressure theoretically will be on Daniels and the Commanders to keep pace with Detroit. But Daniels won’t be intimidated, seeing as he’s proven he can carry the Commanders and has been able to defy the odds pretty much all season.
In his first playoff game, Daniels completed 24-of-35 passes for 268 yards with two touchdowns as Washington didn’t punt and didn’t turn the ball over. It was the third time the Commanders didn’t punt or turn the ball over with Daniels at QB, and in the 2024 season, there were only five other such games by NFL teams, with the Lions accounting for three of them.
Washington struggled to get its run game going against Tampa Bay, though Daniels was able to move the ball on the ground when it counted most.
On a 3rd-and-2 with 55 seconds remaining in the fourth quarter, Daniels faked the ball to Brian Robinson Jr. and immediately found Bucs tackle Calijah Kancey bearing down on him in the backfield, 9 yards from the first-down marker. He managed to ward off Kancey, escaping to the outside to pick up a huge first down to help the Commanders run down the clock to set up the winning kick on the game’s final play.
Daniels led the Commanders in rushing during the regular season with 891 yards – the only quarterback to lead his team in rushing in 2024 and the first QB in Washington franchise history to do it – and his legs could give the Lions problems.
Daniels averages 5.56 yards on his scrambles, and leads the NFL in scrambles by a wide margin.
Detroit, meanwhile, has had some trouble containing running quarterbacks.
Back in Week 3, Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray scrambled twice for 24 yards, and two months later against the Indianapolis Colts, Anthony Richardson gained 61 yards on the ground. In the only blemish on Detroit’s record in the last four months – a 48-42 loss to the Bills – Josh Allen picked up 27 yards on his three scrambles at Ford Field in Week 14. The next Sunday, Bears quarterback Caleb Williams gained 34 yards on four scrambles.
Yes, the Lions won three of those games, but quarterbacks who run have given Detroit’s banged-up defense fits, as only the Texans surrendered more yards per run (6.7) by QBs during the regular season than Detroit’s 6.2 yards allowed per carry.
The Lions used a relentless blitz in the regular-season finale against the Minnesota Vikings, blitzing Sam Darnold 54.3% of the time to torment the QB. The strategy worked, as Detroit rolled to a 31-9 win to capture the NFC North crown and conference’s top seed.
Employing a similar game plan against a rookie quarterback on the road in a hostile environment in front of what will be a raucous crowd would seem to make sense seeing as Daniels appears to give Washington its best chance at escaping with a win, but Detroit will have to be disciplined with its pass rush.
When feeling the heat, Daniels is a threat to tuck the ball and run, scrambling on 26 occasions while being blitzed – 11 more times than the next-closest QB on this list (Jalen Hurts) – and is averaging an impressive 7.27 yards on the scrambles.
He doesn’t immediately look to run amid the chaos of blitzing defenders, however, showing some poise in the pocket for a rookie. On his 150 throws while being blitzed, Daniels is throwing to an open receiver 80.0% of the time – the sixth-best rate among the 34 QBs with a minimum of 60 pass attempts while being blitzed. He also ranks sixth in average air yards at 9.70 on throws while being blitzed.
Daniels has Washington on the cusp of the franchise’s first berth in the NFC championship game since the 1991 season, when they beat the Lions for the conference crown en route to the franchise’s last of three Super Bowl titles. Few expected the Commanders to be in this position – even our supercomputer, which gave them just a 0.9% chance of reaching the conference championship game prior to the start of the season with only four teams having a lower probability.
It’s uncertain if the Commanders have been using our supercomputer’s lack of faith as bulletin-board material all season, but they’ve time and again found ways to win down the stretch when victory appeared to be out of reach and their win probability was unfavorable.
Will the incredible ride end in Detroit or is there more magic up Washington’s sleeve?
Los Angeles Rams (11-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 19, 3:00 pm ET
- SmartRating: 91
- Line: Eagles by 6.0
- Opta Analyst’s Projected Winner: Eagles (70.4)
One Big Question: Can the Eagles get their offense in gear against the Rams inspired defense?
Over the three-day, Wild Card Weekend, perhaps no defense had a more impressive performance than the Rams. And over this same span, perhaps no team that advanced to the divisional round had a more lackluster showing from its offense than the Eagles.
A win is a win, and now both teams are just one win away from a berth in the NFC championship game, though Rams fans are no doubt feeling pretty good given Monday’s dominance while fans of the Eagles may be slightly apprehensive.
Philly fans may not need to dwell too much on last week’s pedestrian display by the offense seeing as Saquon Barkley and the Eagles ran wild over the Rams less than two months ago and Los Angeles may have a tough time replicating the success it enjoyed in the wild-card round against an Eagles offense that will present different challenges.
Sunday’s matchup at Lincoln Financial Field is a rematch from Week 12, when the Eagles pulled away for a 37-20 win at SoFi Stadium. The first half was tight, with Philadelphia leading just 13-7 at the break, but Barkley helped break the game open on the first play from scrimmage in the third quarter with a 70-yard touchdown run.
That was the first of two massive touchdown scampers for Barkley, who added a 72-yarder with less than 3 minutes to play in the fourth quarter to put the Eagles up by 23 points before the Rams scored a late TD against the Philly backups for the game’s final margin.
Barkley ended up with a career-high and franchise-record 255 yards rushing and totaled 302 yards from scrimmage to become the 12th player in NFL history to eclipse 300 yards and the first Eagle.
It wasn’t just Barkley, however, as A.J. Brown caught six passes for 109 yards and a touchdown from Jalen Hurts, who completed 15 of 22 for 179 yards and also rushed for 39 yards.
In all, Philadelphia amassed a season high in yardage with 481, and achieved successful plays on 47.1% of its 68 offensive snaps. But the offense was not nearly as efficient in last Sunday’s 22-10 win over the Green Bay Packers in the wild-card round.
The Eagles mustered 290 yards of offense – their third fewest of the season – and registered successful plays on just 33.3% of their 57 offensive snaps.
Philadelphia forced four turnovers, but the offense struggled to get into a flow and was only able to turn one of them into a touchdown and had to settle for three short field goals from Jake Elliott.
Barkley still rushed for 119 yards and could’ve had more but decided to slide down after gaining 17 – his longest run of the day – and picking up a first down with a minute to go in the fourth quarter so the Eagles could simply run out the clock.
Philadelphia came away with a win, thanks in large part to a defense that stepped up. The Eagles defense, however, had nothing on the dominance the Rams defense displayed in Monday’s 27-9 drubbing of the Vikings.
Playing in Arizona because of the wildfires in the Los Angeles area, the Rams defense looked inspired, sacking quarterback Sam Darnold nine times and intercepting him once while limiting the high-powered Vikings to 269 total yards and a successful play-rate of 31.0.
Defense has led the way for Los Angeles over the last month, as the Rams have gone 6-1 since being run over by the Eagles with the lone setback coming in Week 18 when the starters were rested with the NFC West already wrapped up.
Aside from the season finale, here’s a quick breakdown of how many points the Rams have permitted in their other four other games since Week 15 – 6, 9, 9 and 9. Not too shabby. They’ve allowed an average of 5.99 yards per pass play in those contests while limiting opposing QBs to a 74.7 passer rating.
Mighty impressive, but the matchup with Minnesota played right into Los Angeles’ hands.
During the regular season, the Vikings dropped back to pass more than any other team, and in the wild-card game, Darnold dropped back 25 times putting him in the line of fire for the Rams’ persistent pass rush behind Braden Fiske, Kobie Turner, Byron Young and Jared Verse.
The Rams defend drop-back passers well, holding opponents during the regular season to just a 32.6% success rate on drop backs – third best in the NFL.
Rams fans are brimming with confidence after Monday’s bombardment, but Los Angeles won’t be able to cut loose its pass rush as much Sunday, as dropping back to pass isn’t a huge part of Philadelphia’s offense. The Eagles ran the sixth fewest drop backs of any team during the regular season.
Given that they have the NFL’s leading rusher lining up in the backfield, it’s no surprise that no team runs at a higher rate than the Eagles, who call running plays 55.9% of the time.
With opponents zeroed in on stopping Barkley, Philadelphia counters by faking it to the All-Pro running back and getting them to bite on the run to open up the passing game. Hurts takes full advantage of the defense overcommitting and is one of the NFL’s best passers in play-action.
During the regular season, the Eagles thrived at running play-action, achieving successful plays 54.5% of the time – the seventh-highest rate in the NFL – and averaged 10.6 yards per play – fifth best.
The Rams, meanwhile, don’t defend play-action passes nearly as well as they perform against drop-back passes. When defending play action in the regular season, opponents achieved success plays 53.8% of the time – the eighth-worst rate in the league.
Los Angeles’ defense utterly overwhelmed Darnold and the Minnesota offense in its emphatic wild-card victory. Keyed in on the drop-back passer, the Rams had no hesitation in aggressively charging their pass rushers into Minnesota’s backfield to harass Darnold.
That game plan won’t work against the Eagles.
The Rams can’t completely sell out on the pass given Philadelphia’s proficiency to run. And they can’t immediately crash the line to swarm Barkley even when it appears he’s taking a handoff, or they might end up being burned by a play-action pass by Hurts.
The Eagles offense struggled to find its footing last weekend, and although the Rams put together a defensive clinic in their playoff win, don’t expect a repeat from either unit in this matchup with a berth in the conference championship on the line.
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