With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing all our predictions for every game each week of the 2024 NFL season.
Our projection model is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are among the best bets when it comes to the title race, as Patrick Mahomes and company are chasing a third consecutive Super Bowl victory and their fourth in six seasons.
The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers are some of those NFL teams hoping to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC, riding the play of quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Russell Wilson, C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert.
Having frequently come so close to a title in recent years, the San Francisco 49ers entered the season as the favorites in the NFC West. But an avalanche of injuries have knocked them back.
The Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders are the leading contenders in the NFC’s wide-open conference race.
Our AI-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season, and Week 15 of the 2024 NFL season begins with Los Angeles Rams visiting the aforementioned 49ers on Thursday Night Football, and it continues with the Lions-Bills and Steelers-Eagles matchups highlighting the Sunday slate.
For those games and every touchdown in between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our model and come up with our win probabilities. (They’re not NFL picks against the spread.)
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.
Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shake things up (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.
Thursday Night Football
at San Francisco 49ers 62.0%, Los Angeles Rams 38.0%
Following a nine-game losing streak to the 49ers from 2019-23, the Rams have won their last two against San Francisco, including a three-point win in Week 3. The Rams haven’t won three straight games over the 49ers since they won six consecutive from 1999-2001.
Sunday’s Schedule
at Carolina Panthers 57.6%, Dallas Cowboys 42.4%
Chuba Hubbard is 9 yards away from becoming the fourth Panther with 3,000 rushing yards and 20 rushing touchdowns in their first four seasons, joining DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart and Christian McCaffrey. With 720 carries, he needs just 35 more to break Williams’ record of 754 rush attempts in the first four seasons.
Kansas City Chiefs 60.7%, at Cleveland Browns 39.3%
Patrick Mahomes is tied for first in passing touchdowns on third down this season (10). In the last 30 years, he ranks first in yards per attempt on third down (8.92), touchdown percentage on third down (9.0%) and passer rating on third down (111.2; min. 250 att.).
at Houston Texans 61.4%, Miami Dolphins 38.6%
After forcing three turnovers in Weeks 1-5 (tied for fifth fewest in the NFL), Houston has generated an NFL-high 21 takeaways since Week 6. The Texans boast a plus-13-turnover differential since Week 6, their highest ever in an eight-game span. They’re now tied for second in the league in defensive EVE (Efficiency Versus Expected).
New York Jets 58.1%, at Jacksonville Jaguars 41.9%
The Jets have lost nine of their last 10 games after falling in Miami last week 32-26. This is the eighth season in franchise history the Jets have lost at least nine times over a 10-game span. The Jets have lost 10 of 11 in four seasons all time (most recently 2020).
Washington Commanders 68.3%, at New Orleans Saints 31.7%
Washington’s 376 total points this season are already more than the 329 the team scored last season. The Commanders are one of three teams that have already surpassed their 2023-point total, joining Pittsburgh (+19) and Tampa Bay (+15).
Baltimore Ravens 80.8%, at New York Giants 19.2%
The Ravens are 13-3 (.813) following a bye week under John Harbaugh (since 2008). However, his 2-3 (.400) career record against the Giants is his fourth-worst record versus any opponent.
Cincinnati Bengals 63.1%, at Tennessee Titans 36.9%
Cincinnati has scored 27 or more points in each of its last four games, all of which were decided by seven or fewer points. Only one team in NFL history has a longer streak (Chiefs, five straight in 2018).
at Arizona Cardinals 67.7%, New England Patriots 32.3%
Trey McBride has 80 consecutive receptions without a receiving touchdown, the fourth-longest active streak in the NFL. It is the longest such streak by any Cardinals tight end in the last 30 seasons.
at Denver Broncos 64.2%, Indianapolis Colts 35.8%
Seven of the eight Broncos wins this season have been by multiple scores (nine or more points). That is tied with the Bills for most in the NFL. The Broncos’ average margin of victory is 15.5 points, fourth best in the NFL, and would be their highest mark in a season with a winning record since 2013 (17.2).
at Detroit Lions 60.3%, Buffalo Bills 39.7%
The Lions have six wins against teams currently over .500 this season, the most of any team. Detroit’s .857 win percentage (6-1) against teams with a winning record is the second-best mark in the NFL (Steelers – 4-0).
at Los Angeles Chargers 61.1%, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38.9%
Justin Herbert is 13 passing yards away from reaching 20,000 in his career. If Herbert (26 years, 280 days old) reaches the mark on Sunday, he will become the third-youngest player in NFL history to reach 20,000 career pass yards (Peyton Manning, Drew Bledsoe).
at Philadelphia Eagles 67.3%, Pittsburgh Steelers 32.7%
The Eagles have not committed a turnover in four straight games, the longest active streak in the NFL and team’s longest streak since 1950. The Steelers have had at least three takeaways in four consecutive games, tied for the longest streak by any team in the last five seasons.
Sunday Night Football
Green Bay Packers 57.8%, at Seattle Seahawks 42.2%
The home team has won the last eight regular-season matchups between Green Bay and Seattle. The Packers have held the Seahawks to fewer than 250 yards passing in each of their last 16 matchups, the longest active streak by any team against a single opponent.
Monday Night Football
at Minnesota Vikings 73.2%, Chicago Bears 26.8%
Minnesota is 4-1 against Chicago under Kevin O’Connell, with the Bears’ lone win over this span coming in Minnesota last season. Another Vikings’ win would clinch their third season sweep of the Bears in the last four years.
Atlanta Falcons 60.7%, at Las Vegas Raiders 39.3%
The Falcons have 1,540 yards over their last four games but just 57 total points to show for it. They’re one of three teams since the merger to have at least that many yards and fewer than 60 points over a four-game span (2011 Steelers, 1981 Bills).
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Check out our NBA, NFL, college basketball, FBS and FCS coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
