With the help of our supercomputer, we’re revealing all our predictions for every game each week of the 2024 NFL season.
Our projection model is with us every step of the way this season, providing us with data-backed predictions for all NFL games and season outcomes.
Of course, the Kansas City Chiefs are among the best bets when it comes to the title race, as Patrick Mahomes and company are chasing a third consecutive Super Bowl victory and their fourth in six seasons.
The Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Pittsburgh Steelers, Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers are some of those NFL teams hoping to challenge the Chiefs in the AFC, riding the play of quarterbacks Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Bo Nix, Russell Wilson, C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert.
Having frequently come so close to a title in recent years, the San Francisco 49ers entered the season as the favorites in the NFC West. But an avalanche of injuries have knocked them back.
The Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders are the leading contenders in the NFC’s wide-open conference race.
Our AI-powered supercomputer is continuing to make predictions for every game this season, and Week 16 of the 2024 NFL season begins with the Broncos visiting the Chargers on Thursday Night Football, and it continues with the Texans-Chiefs and Steelers-Ravens on Saturday. On Sunday, the Eagles-Commanders and Vikings-Seahawks are the headliners.
For those games and every touchdown in between, we’ve taken plenty of data, pumped it through our model and come up with our win probabilities. (They’re not NFL picks against the spread.)
So no matter if it’s a headliner or a game we may all be a bit less excited about, it unsentimentally beeps its way through its NFL picks, boldly dropping predictions for each.
Keep in mind that these percentages move throughout the week as player news shake things up (the following win probabilities were as of Wednesday). You can always find the win percentages – pregame or live – on our season-long predictions page.
Thursday Night Football
at Los Angeles Chargers 60.8%, Denver Broncos 39.2%
After the Chargers’ 23-16 victory in Week 6, the Chargers and Broncos have split their last eight matchups. The Chargers aim for their first regular-season sweep of the Broncos since 2010, having only accomplished the feat four times in the past 55 years.
Saturday’s Schedule
Houston Texans 55.1%, at Kansas City Chiefs 44.9%
Following three interceptions in Week 15, the Texans have recorded 11 interceptions over their last five games. It is Houston’s most interceptions in a five-game span in franchise history and tied for the best five-game span in the NFL this season (Vikings). They could be in line for more if Carson Wentz fills in for an injured Patrick Mahomes on Saturday.
at Baltimore Ravens 70.5%, Pittsburgh Steelers 29.5%
The Steelers and Ravens’ last nine matchups have been decided by seven or fewer points. There have only been two longer such streaks in divisional matchups all time: Washington versus Philadelphia (11, 1991-96) and Green Bay against Minnesota (10, 2002-07). The Ravens lead the NFL in both offensive EVE (Efficiency Versus Expected) and overall EVE.
Sunday’s Schedule
at Cincinnati Bengals 73.7%, Cleveland Browns 26.3%
The Browns are 9-4 against the Bengals since the 2018 season, their most wins against any opponent over this span. It is the Browns’ most wins over a 13-game span against a divisional opponent since winning nine of 13 against the Bengals from 1993 to 2002 (that span was also the last time the Browns won 10 of 14 against a divisional foe).
at Atlanta Falcons 80.1%, New York Giants 19.9%
Drake London has 20 red-zone targets this season, tied with Garrett Wilson and Travis Kelce for the third most in the NFL (Amon-Ra St. Brown – 22, Ja’Marr Chase – 25). London has caught six of Atlanta’s 10 red-zone passing touchdowns.
Arizona Cardinals 60.4%, at Carolina Panthers 39.6%
Budda Baker reached 600 career solo tackles in Week 15 against the Patriots. He is one of four safeties in the last 30 years with both 600 or more career solo tackles and 40+ career tackles for loss, along with Harrison Smith, Malcolm Jenkins and Tryann Mathieu.
Detroit Lions 65.4%, at Chicago Bears 34.6%
The Bears have 61 home wins against the Lions all time, their most against any single opponent in franchise history. Detroit’s 61 road losses are tied for its most against a single team in franchise history (Packers).
at Indianapolis Colts 64.1%, Tennessee Titans 35.9%
The Colts have 38 wins against the Titans all time, their second most against any single opponent in franchise history (Jets, 44). Tennessee’s 38 losses to Indianapolis are its second most against a single team in franchise history (Steelers, 46).
Los Angeles Rams 57.7%, at New York Jets 42.3%
In eight career games played in December, Puka Nacua has averaged 104.5 receiving yards per game. Only two other players in NFL history have averaged over 100.0 in the month of December (minimum five games): Cloyce Box (125.7) and Justin Jefferson (100.6).
Philadelphia Eagles 57.9%, at Washington Commanders 42.1%
The Eagles have gone 16 consecutive games without an opening drive touchdown, the second-longest active streak in the NFL (Seahawks, 18). The Commanders are amid an NFL-high 10-game streak without allowing points on opponent’s opening drives.
Minnesota Vikings 58.1%, at Seattle Seahawks 41.9%
The Vikings are the first team with 40+ sacks and 20+ interceptions in the first 14 games of a season since the 2019 Patriots. Minnesota’s last full season with 40+ sacks and 20+ interceptions came in 1996.
at Buffalo Bills 86.7%, New England Patriots 13.3%
The Bills have won three out of their last four home games against the Patriots, including back-to-back wins. The last time Buffalo won three consecutive home games against New England was when it won six straight from 1988 to 1993.
Jacksonville Jaguars 52.1%, at Las Vegas Raiders 47.9%
The Jaguars’ 32-25 loss against the Jets last week was their 10th game of the season decided by seven or fewer points, tied for most in the NFL (Colts, Chiefs, Rams, Ravens). The Jags’ eight losses by seven or fewer points are the most in the NFL and tied for the most in a single season in franchise history (also 2002 and 2016).
Sunday Night Football
at Miami Dolphins 54.6%, San Francisco 49ers 45.4%
At 6-8, the Dolphins are on the verge of finishing with a losing record for the first time since 2019. They’re one of four NFL teams that has not had a losing record in a season since 2020 along with the Bills, Chiefs and Steelers.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 59.8%, at Dallas Cowboys 40.2%
Following their 506 total net yardage performance in Week 15, the Buccaneers have now posted their first four-game winning streak within a single season when they’ve generated at least 400 total net yards in each game.
Monday Night Football
at Green Bay Packers 85.1%, New Orleans Saints 14.9%
The Packers have scored at least 30 points in four straight games. The only NFL team with a longer streak this season is the Bills (active eight-game streak). It is the Packers’ longest streak since 2021, and the last time they had a longer streak was 1963 (seven).
Stats and facts provided by Stats Perform’s data insights team. Check out our NBA, NFL, college basketball, FBS and FCS coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X for more.
