Norris predicts F1 race wins for teams outside top four

McLaren’s Lando Norris says he expects a team outside Formula 1’s established top four to snatch a surprise win in the 2025 season.

The current rules cycle had long been dominated by Red Bull, but as the regulations matured the field tightened up significantly last year, with McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes all grabbing race wins, and McLaren breaking Red Bull’s dominance by taking its first constructors’ title since 1998.

Following a 2023 season in which Red Bull won all but one race, having four teams trading turns at the front was a refreshing sight for F1 fans, and the tantalising expectation is that the final year of the current regulations in 2025 could be even closer, with teams also having to shift focus to the 2026 rule changes.

That is what last year’s runner-up Norris is expecting; the Briton suspects even teams outside the current top four, such as Alpine and Aston Martin, might be in a position to snatch an opportunistic race win.

“It’s everyone’s expectation within Formula 1 [that 2025 will be even closer],” Norris said. “Every time regulations don’t change, it gets closer and closer. That’s just the way it’s always worked.

“It already got pretty close at the end of last year, and you already started to see the middle of the pack catching up and getting closer and closer.

“I expect that to be even more the case over the winter and into this season, you’re probably going to have some winners that aren’t McLaren, Ferrari, Mercedes or Red Bull, which I think is good for Formula 1 and good for the fans.

“I think it’s not going to be just the usual guys. It’s going to be a bit different this year; maybe not at the very beginning, but certainly through the season, we’ll see it probably shake up a little bit more.”

None of those bottom six teams have managed to win a grand prix in the current era, with Esteban Ocon the last to do so at the 2021 Hungarian Grand Prix for Alpine.

Ocon and his previous Alpine team-mate Pierre Gasly did show with a double podium in Brazil that the midfielders were starting to get into a position to capitalise on special circumstances that derail the frontrunners, such as the frantic wet-weather race in Interlagos.

Norris’ team-mate Oscar Piastri agreed F1 might be in for another memorable season during which the form table can shift from circuit to circuit, with teams like Mercedes struggling on one weekend and then dominating in Las Vegas.

“When you look at the back end of last season with how many different winners from different teams there were, it’s all pointing towards a very tight season,” the Australian nodded. “Going from track to track you’re not going to know.

“Pretty much all of last year we thought we would be in the mix for a win, but we didn’t really know who the main competitor was going to be for most of the season and it changed every week, so I’m expecting more of the same.”