Even the league’s best teams have flaws, and we’re looking for the issues that an opponent could target to gain the upper hand. It’s the one weakness that could derail every contender.
No team in the NFL is perfect.
Call it whatever you want – a fatal flaw, an Achilles’ heel or a weak spot – but every team has a vulnerability, big or small, that could be exploited to derail its season.
For the teams vying for a Super Bowl, those issues typically lean toward the smaller side of the spectrum. They’re contenders for a reason, and their shortcomings are just that – minor. These problems won’t make or break their title hopes, but they still exist as a thorn in their side.
The Kansas City Chiefs proved in their past two Super Bowl runs that you can win big despite your team’s flaws. The Chiefs didn’t have reliable wide receivers in either championship, yet took home the Lombardi Trophy. One could even argue they’re a worse team this year despite a 12-1 record.
As the end of the regular season draws nearer, the biggest Super Bowl contenders have begun to emerge. According to our NFL projections, there are six teams with at least a 14% chance to make the Super Bowl (as of Friday): The Chiefs, Green Bay Packers, Philadelphia Eagles, Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.
The No. 1 seeds from each conference will likely come from this list as well.
Highest Probabilities of Reaching the Super Bowl
Each of these teams are flawed, but we’re looking specifically at issues that an opponent could target to gain the upper hand in any matchup. This could be a position, a unit or a situation.
Here are the biggest problems for each Super Bowl contender.
Kansas City Chiefs: Left Tackle
Kansas City’s starting left tackle has been a revolving door recently with a new Week 1 starter in each of the past three seasons. But this year, that door spun a little faster as the Chiefs have started four different players at the position since Week 1.
Second-rounder rookie Kingsley Suamataia started the first two weeks before being benched for Wanya Morris, who was benched after 10 weeks for late-season addition D.J. Humphries, who was replaced by left guard Joe Thuney in Week 15 due to an injury.
That is not a recipe for success, and the results have been bad. Morris, who was the primary starter for most of the season, has the fourth-worst pressure rate allowed among left tackles with at least 200 pass protection snaps at 13.1%. His knockdown rate allowed of 3.7% is the worst, and his 10 adjusted sacks allowed (on plays that resulted in a sack when a pressure was allowed) are tied for the most.
The rest of the group has been equally as poor, and the Chiefs rank 32nd in pass blocking win rates at an abysmal 61.1%.
There is no remedy for this. Humphries was supposed to be the cure, but he’s been ineffective and injured. Thuney, who’s played tackle sparingly in the past, is a fine replacement but not a cure-all in what will be a competitive AFC playoff picture. Not to mention that it looks like quarterback Patrick Mahomes will be hobbled by an ankle injury he suffered in Week 15.
For a team eyeing its third consecutive Super Bowl, this is what should keep Andy Reid up at night as he plans for the team’s playoff journey in January.
Green Bay Packers: Pass Rush
The Packers will likely finish with a wild-card spot in the ultra-competitive NFC North but nevertheless look like a team that can win the Super Bowl. Quarterback Jordan Love (third in the NFL in QB EVE) and running back Josh Jacobs are playing at high levels and the defense has, at times, looked good.
However, the Green Bay pass rush is lacking in overall firepower heading into the final stretch of the regular season. While the team is tied for seventh in the league with 40 sacks, the only defensive player with at least 5.0 sacks on his own is edge rusher Rashan Gary.
Of the rates listed above, only Gary ranks above the league average. And even his numbers aren’t much better.
The Packers are strangely efficient when they rush the passer – they rank eighth in sack rate despite 28th in blitz rate – but Green Bay pressures opposing quarterbacks just 42.3% of the time, which ranks dead-center in the league. That inability to attack opposing quarterbacks trickles down to the secondary, as the Packers have the third-worst pass success rate allowed.
Cornerback is an issue for the Packers, too, but the inconsistency of the pass rush puts even more pressure on the secondary players and creates adverse scenarios for the defense as whole. And when you have high-powered offenses to contend with in the NFC, it’s imperative for a defense to get to the quarterback.
Philadelphia Eagles: Center & Short-Yardage Runs
The retirement of center Jason Kelce after the 2023 season was seen as a huge blow to the Eagles heading into the year. While Philadelphia had a succession play with Cam Jurgens, the results haven’t been nearly as compelling in short-yardage situations as they had in years past.
Jurgens ranks 31st in run block win rate this season, which might come as a shock considering the Eagles rank first in rushing yards per game, second in rushing yards per carry and second in run success rate through 15 weeks.
The Eagles are a great running team as a whole, but they’ve suffered in short-yardage runs. Yes, we’re talking about the Tush Push here, but we’ll also dive into how Jurgen’s run blocking has affected Saquon Barkley in a career season, too.
The Tush Push (defined as a run up the middle with 2 yards or fewer to go) has been the Eagles’ short-yardage calling card since Jalen Hurts took over as the starting quarterback.
While its overall success rate has dropped by about 2% every season from 2021 to 2023, it effectively took a nosedive this season. The play has resulted in a first down or touchdown on 80.0% of its attempts this season, which is an 11.7% decrease since 2021. While it still works 75.0% of the time at goal line, the Tush Push first-down conversion rate dropped by 10.4% since Jurgens took over for Kelce this season.
The issue extends to Barkley as well. While he’s been great this season, Barkley’s numbers on runs up the middle haven’t been nearly as good. Apart from a 63.6% first-down conversion rate when the Eagles have 3-5 yards to go, Barkley’s first-down conversion rate is higher when he runs to either side of the offensive line than up the middle.
There are several teams the Eagles could face in the NFC playoffs or the Super Bowl with defenses that are effective against the run on short-yardage situations.
The Ravens, Bills and Packers all rank inside the top 12 in run success rate allowed with 5 or fewer yards to go. Other teams on the playoff fringes – like the Seattle Seahawks, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers – are also in this group.
The Ravens, Seahawks, Chiefs, Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers all allow the fewest rushing yards per play in those situations as well.
Detroit Lions: Injuries
Call it a cop-out, but the Lions’ injuries are the team’s biggest weakness at the moment because the loss of quality players has decimated nearly every level of their championship-caliber team – especially on defense.
Detroit has lost 22 players to injured reserve this season, including eight defensive linemen, four linebackers, four defensive backs, two wide receivers and two offensive linemen.
These aren’t just role players, either.
The Lions will likely be without their best pass rushers in Aidan Hutchinson and Marcus Davenport, best interior defensive lineman in Alim McNeil, best goal-line and tackle-breaking running back in David Montgomery, their best cover corner in Carlton Davis and the heart of the middle of their defense in Alex Anzalone – all likely for the rest of the year.
That’s simply too much experience and production to make up with role players and free agents in a season that the Lions have dominated in almost every facet. They tried to fix some cracks with free-agent pickups like veteran linebacker Kwon Alexander and Jamal Adams, but neither have proven effective in their limited time with the team.
And while Detroit remains a juggernaut, it’s impossible to tell how the loss of Montgomery will affect the team’s top-10 rushing offense in this final stretch before the postseason.
Baltimore Ravens: Third-Down Pass Defense
Baltimore’s pass defense on a whole has been sub-par since Zach Orr took over as defensive coordinator for the departed Mike Macdonald. The team has allowed the second-most passing yards per game this season behind only the Jacksonville Jaguars with the seventh-most passing touchdowns given up.
Third down has been especially bad for the Ravens secondary this season, though. While Baltimore ranks 13th in overall passing success rate allowed, that number drops to 28th in the NFL when the defense is faced with a third-down passing play.
The Ravens also give up the sixth-highest average depth of target on third, likely a contributing factor given Baltimore’s third-down pass success rate of 22.9% (ninth worst in the NFL) on passing plays of at least 10 yards.
The culprits are obvious: Three of the four top outside cornerbacks give up a burn rate of at least 50%. Brandon Stephens, who leads the team with 489 pass coverage snaps, has the 12th-worst burn rate allowed at 59.5% and Tre’Davious White ranks 28th with a 54.2% burn rate. Marlon Humphrey is middle-of-the-pack at 50.8% while rookie Nate Wiggins, the only one of the group below a 50% burn rate, ranks sixth in the league with his 38.6%.
Baltimore’s safeties are a mixed bag, as Kyle Hamilton remains elite with a respectable 42.2% burn rate and 7.48 burn yards allowed per target. The two others with at least 200 pass coverage snaps who are still on the team (Marcus Williams and Ar’Darius Washington), own a burn rate of at least 60% or allow more than 10 burn yards per target.
Buffalo Bills: Run Defense
This has been an issue all year for Buffalo. The Bills have given up at least 100 rushing yards in all but three games this season despite the fifth-best run success rate allowed. This is likely because even though the team has a solid/low 33.8% run success rate allowed, Buffalo has still allowed 4.5 rushing yards per play – tied for the eighth most in the league.
Buffalo’s run defense problems mostly lie in the team’s inability to get to running backs quickly. The Bills’ 62.5% run disruption rate ranks 31st in the NFL despite deploying a heavy box 50.4% of the time. The result: A healthy 3.2 yards before contact allowed, which is tied for the fourth most in the NFL.
Now, some of this could be inflated by the insane 199-yard game Ravens star running back Derrick Henry had in Week 4 against the Bills. Henry bulldozed Buffalo all game and finished with 7.08 yards before contact per carry – the third-highest total in a game among running backs with at least 15 carries in one contest.
But other running backs, like the Indianapolis Colts’ Jonathan Taylor, the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Travis Etienne and the New York Jets’ Breece Hall also had games against the Bills in which they averaged around 4 yards before contact.
The Bills’ point differential also shrinks tremendously when they allow fewer than 100 rushing yards. Buffalo is plus-16.5 points in games in which the opponent doesn’t break the century mark on the ground and is just plus-5.1 points otherwise, including two of its three losses.
The top six rushing teams in the league are all expected to make the playoffs, and the only teams with a bottom-half running game likely to get in are the Houston Texans, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers.
So while the offense will keep the Bills in every game they play from now until the end of their season, Buffalo can’t let its opponents build a substantial ground game if it hopes to compete for a title.
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