NEW YORK — For all the talk around baseball regarding Juan Soto’s future, a different slugging star has stayed curiously out of the spotlight over the first month-plus of free agency.
Pete Alonso’s market isn’t likely to develop fully until after Soto signs, according to the opinions of multiple industry experts. That’s no surprise, considering Soto is Plan A for several big-market clubs, including the Mets, Yankees and Red Sox. Any team that fails in its pursuit of him will theoretically have extra funds to allocate to Alonso.
Here’s a look at the first baseman’s market heading into the Winter Meetings:
Has Alonso received any offers?
It’s unclear at this time if Alonso has received formal offers. He reportedly rejected a seven-year, $158 million contract extension in 2023, which could have made him a Met for life. But he’s been free to negotiate with all 30 teams since the first week of November.
Regardless of any talks that have already taken place, Alonso has little incentive to sign until Soto does. For the teams that don’t land Soto, the idea of inking Alonso could easily flip from theoretical to practical. The fact that Soto and Alonso share an agent, Scott Boras, only underscores the likelihood that the latter won’t sign until the former does.
Which teams might be interested?
Unsurprisingly, the Mets top this list. While Alonso has never explicitly called a return to Queens his first choice, he’s spoken often about his love for New York. The only question is the extent to which that’s mutual. The Mets — who have not only targeted Soto, but also plan to commit tens of millions of additional dollars to pitchers — may be unwilling to pay Alonso the premium he seeks. Then again, if the Mets don’t land Soto, their priorities could shift back to one of the most potent power bats remaining on the market.
Outside of the Mets, the Yankees remain the most obvious match for Alonso. With Anthony Rizzo gone, the big-market Yankees have a first-base hole that they’ll have a hard time filling internally with any confidence. Even if Soto returns to the Bronx, Alonso could theoretically come along with him.
The Nationals have also frequently been connected to Alonso in media rumors. He’s the exact type of player who could help a young team without an obvious middle-of-the-order power bat vault into contention. Likewise, clubs such as the Giants and Mariners could become factors given their need for offensive thump. The Cubs have long seemed like a logical landing spot as well, though Michael Busch’s emergence may have changed that equation a bit for Chicago.
Finally, don’t count out the Soto suitors in Boston and Toronto, especially if they fall short in that pursuit. Those fits aren’t as clean on paper, but if the Red Sox were willing to trade Triston Casas or move him to DH, or if the Blue Jays were willing to do the same with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., an Alonso addition would make sense.
What could an Alonso contract look like?
Given that Alonso has already reportedly rejected a $158 million deal, it stands to reason he’ll seek more on the open market. It could be a difficult ask, given that his closest recent historical comps, Matt Olson (eight years, $168 million) and Freddie Freeman (six years, $162 million), signed their deals just three years ago.
Word on the street is Boras prefers the older first base comps of Miguel Cabrera (eight years, $248 million), Albert Pujols (10 years, $240 million), Joey Votto (10 years, $225 million) and Prince Fielder (nine years, $214 million). In the fast-moving world of baseball contracts, such deals are ancient history, and none of them wound up providing excess value. As such, Alonso probably won’t approach these figures, even factoring in Boras’ reputation for persuasiveness. But a nine-figure contract of some sort does appear likely.
When might he sign?
As soon as Soto comes off the board, expect the Alonso marketplace to heat up. Teams in need of first-base power won’t want to wait too long, considering the next-best option at the position, Christian Walker, is going into his age-34 season — and Walker is quite young compared to the other names out there. It’s a weak market overall.
While Boras is notorious for dragging out negotiations for many clients, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Alonso sign around or just after the holidays.
