With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Of course, Manchester City will take some beating when it comes to the title race, as Pep Guardiola’s men are chasing a record-extending fifth consecutive top-flight title and are overwhelming favourites to achieve that success.
Arsenal are hoping to push City all the way, and while Liverpool no longer have Jürgen Klopp at the helm, Arne Slot is now guiding a squad that’s very similar to the one that threatened to be a real challenger until the final weeks of 2023-24.
And no doubt we’re in store for another highly competitive UEFA Champions League qualification battle involving the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester United.
At the other end of the table, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton are hoping to fare better than the previous teams to be promoted from the Championship – all three were relegated in 2023-24.
Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 5
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of Premier League match predictions ahead of the next weekend of English top-flight football in 2024-25.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming round of matches as the early part of the season sees the league table begin to take shape, with Manchester City already in front at the top.
After a strong season of match predictions overall last year, supporters are likely to be looking at the 2024-25 picks even more forensically. And the system has enjoyed a strong start to this campaign too, including with its picks in the last matchweek, correctly calling wins for Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Manchester United and Newcastle, although Liverpool’s home loss to Nottingham Forest did come as a major surprise.
Matchday 5 will see eight matches crammed in on Saturday, and two more on Sunday, with the leading teams now doubling up with their duties in European competitions.
West Ham host Chelsea in a big London derby to get the EPL weekend up and running, while Liverpool will hope to get back on track in the top flight with a home match against Bournemouth.
Crystal Palace will take on Man Utd in the Saturday early evening fixture after Erik ten Hag’s men earned a much-needed win over Southampton and then smashed seven goals past Barnsley in the EFL Cup.
The game of the matchweek will take place on Sunday, as title rivals Man City and Arsenal do battle at the Etihad Stadium.
Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 5: The Quick Hits
- Manchester City are rated as favourites to defeat title rivals Arsenal in their huge early season clash at the Etihad Stadium.
- The Opta Supercomputer is backing Liverpool to bounce back in the Premier League by defeating Bournemouth. A Reds win is its most confident selection of MD5.
- Home teams are well backed by our model this week, with Aston Villa, Brighton and Tottenham among the highest conviction win predictions.
West Ham are yet to hit their stride this season as they prepare to face a Chelsea side who have responded well to their opening weekend loss to Man City. The Blues have earned seven points from a possible nine since then, putting them three clear of their London rivals, who have home advantage in this one.
There are some interesting trends relating to this fixture. While West Ham have won five of their last 10 Premier League home games against Chelsea, including a 3-1 at the London Stadium last term, they have not won consecutive home league games against the Blues since 2003.
West Ham also go into this one having lost both of their home games so far this season, with this being the third part of an extremely tough start in front of their own fans which has also seen them have to face Aston Villa and Man City. On the plus side for those supporters, the Hammers have never lost their first three at home.
Chelsea, meanwhile, have won four straight Premier League away games dating back to last season. Two of those victories have come under new boss Enzo Maresca, who now has the chance to become the first manager since his mentor Pep Guardiola in 2016 to win each of his first three away games in the English top flight.
The Opta supercomputer expects the Saturday early fixture to be one of many close matches this week, though it is Chelsea who are given the edge at 44.0% to West Ham’s 31.3%, with the draw a strong candidate at 24.7%.
Aston Villa roared to a comeback victory over Everton last time out in the Premier League and then made a convincing UEFA Champions League debut by comfortably seeing off Young Boys. They now host local rivals Wolves as they look to make it four wins from five top-flight games and cap a fine start to the new campaign.
Villa won this fixture when it was last played in March, but Wolves had caused them problems before that, winning two and drawing two of the previous four league games at Villa Park.
Ollie Watkins returned to form with a double against Everton and he has now been involved in seven goals in his last six league home games for Aston Villa, scoring four and assisting three. Overall, he has 48 goal involvements at home (33 goals, 15 assists), putting him just one behind Gabriel Agbonlahor’s club record in the competition (49).
Villa are strong favourites for this one with our supercomputer giving them a win probability of 57.6%. Wolves’ chance is rated at 21.0%, so the out-of-form visitors might be satisfied if they can grab a draw (21.4%).
Fulham have not lost in the Premier League since the opening night of the new season as they prepare to host a Newcastle United team who are still unbeaten after their late revival at Wolves last time out.
Facing an in-form Newcastle team is never an enticing prospect, but it’s even more worrying when you have lost your previous five fixtures against them, which is the case for the Cottagers, who also lost an epic EFL Cup penalty shoot-out to Preston North End in midweek.
Fulham have only scored four league goals so far this season, but that is largely down to poor finishing. Marco Silva’s team are creating chances, and have had the joint-sixth highest number of shots (58). Only Southampton (2.1%) have a lower shot conversion rate than them (6.9%) so far.
This is one of many tight fixtures this week. Newcastle are very slight favourites but the Magpies’ win probability of 39.7% means that Fulham are seen as more likely than not to get something out of the game, with their own victory chance rated at 34.7% and the draw at 25.6%.
Leicester City (38.2%) and Everton (35.2%) are both waiting for their first win ahead of the two relegation candidates doing battle on Saturday. But it is the Toffees who are really feeling the heat going into the game, having given up two-goal leads to lose each of their last two Premier League games before also being dumped out of the Carabao Cup in midweek.
After scoring in the defeats to Bournemouth and Villa, Dominic Calvert-Lewin has now netted in 14 Premier League defeats for Everton, a new club record. In Jamie Vardy, the home side also have a striker in form. The veteran has already netted twice this season and boasts a strong record against the Toffees, having netted seven times against them in his career to date.
A draw (26.6%) would not be a huge help to either side, but that is given a meaningful chance here. Indeed, across all 10 fixtures – many of which are set to be close – this is the most likely contest to finish level.
Liverpool’s loss to Nottingham Forest at Anfield was the biggest shock of the 2024-25 campaign so far, and the pressure is therefore on as they face Bournemouth at the same venue. An impressive away win at AC Milan in the Champions League has boosted the Reds’ mood going into the Bournemouth clash and their supporters can be further comforted by the fact Liverpool are the supercomputer’s most confident win prediction of the week at 69.7%, with the Cherries way down at 13.4%.
Liverpool have won nine of their last 10 Premier League meetings with Bournemouth and Mohamed Salah has scored nine goals in nine top-flight games against them. The Cherries could be the fourth team the Egypt star reaches double figures against in the competition, having also done so against Man Utd, Arsenal and West Ham.
Of course, Bournemouth fans will have nightmares about their visit to Anfield back in August 2022, when Liverpool secured the joint biggest Premier League win in history (9-0).
In another key battle towards the bottom of the table, two promoted sides face off as Southampton take on Ipswich Town.
Ipswich have won more Premier League games against Southampton than they have against any other opponent (5) and beat Russell Martin’s side at St Mary’s in the Championship last season.
Martin has suffered defeat in his first four matches this season and is now hoping to avoid become the first boss ever to lose their first five since Scott Parker in April 2019, while no manager in league history has ever lost his first five games when they’ve been the first games of a season.
The supercomputer thinks Martin has a good chance of avoiding that fate and favours Saints going into this key clash. They are given a 43.4% chance of victory, though Ipswich are also in with a shout at 30.9% and the draw a threat at 25.7%.
It has not been a vintage start to the season for Tottenham Hotspur (58.8%), so they could do with a positive result as they host Brentford (20.6%).
A last-gasp turnaround saved Spurs’ blushes against Coventry City in the EFL Cup and now they are expected to follow that up with what would be a key London derby league triumph. It’s been a troubling run for Tottenham, who have lost seven of their last 11 league matches. Only Wolves have suffered more defeats in the competition (8) since that run started on 13 April.
Key to their hopes of a turnaround will be in-form Pedro Porro. The flying full-back has 10 open play chances created already this season – second only to Forest’s Morgan Gibbs-White (11) in the division across the first four matchdays – and is the only player to have have created four or more such opportunities in two different games this season, which he did against both Leicester and Arsenal.
Crystal Palace (35.9%) are yet to win this season but they are still expected to give Man Utd (39.1%) a stern examination at Selhurst Park in the early evening fixture.
United have won two straight games in convincing fashion across all competitions but will be aware Palace did the double over them last season and that they have only collected one point from their last three trips to this venue.
They will therefore hope captain Bruno Fernandes can open his account for the season. The Portugal international has had more shots without scoring (13) than any other player in the league so far in 2024-25.
United are given the slightest edge in this one but the supercomputer deems it too close to call to rule definitively in either team’s favour, with the draw a contender at 25.0%.
Brighton & Hove Albion and Nottingham Forest are locked together on eight points from four games, having made impressive starts to the new campaign going into their Sunday fixture.
Dating back to last season, Forest are five games unbeaten, and this is the first time they have achieved that feat in the top flight since 1995-96. Brighton, meanwhile, now have the chance to remain without defeat in their first five games for the first time ever in a top-flight season.
Brighton have 10 points from 12 in their last four league games with Forest, and have kept a clean sheet in all of those games, so they are backed for victory with a win probability of 52.3%, with Forest having a 23.7% chance of continuing a magnificent start with another surprise away win.
Manchester City have home advantage as they take on Arsenal in the biggest match of the Premier League season so far.
Erling Haaland was kept out by Internazionale in the Champions League on Wednesday but has stunningly scored nine goals in four Premier League games this season. A goal in this game would set a new record for the fewest appearances any player has taken to reach double figures in a single campaign. The current record of six games is shared Mick Quinn (1992-93) and Haaland himself (achieved in 2022-23, his PL debut season). One goal will also bring up his century for Manchester City in what would be only his 105th competitive appearance for the club.
If he nets twice, Haaland will match former Liverpool striker Luis Suárez and become the second player to score multiple goals in four consecutive Premier League appearances.
But Arsenal are the toughest Premier League team to score against, having kept a clean sheet in both meetings with champions Man City last season and ending that campaign with the best defensive record at just 29 goals conceded. The Gunners are resolute on the road and have not trailed in any of their last 11 away league games, which is already tied with Aston Villa for a competition record.
However, City still have a superb record overall in home games with Arsenal, winning seven and drawing two of the last nine Premier League meetings and not losing since 2015.
Victory would see them move five points clear of their main title rivals after just five matches and the Opta supercomputer gives Pep Guardiola’s men a 52.0% chance of doing just that. Arsenal’s chance is down at 23.5%, so perhaps Mikel Arteta would be happy with a draw (24.5%), which is what they managed the last time these sides met in March.
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