With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Of course, Manchester City will take some beating when it comes to the title race, as Pep Guardiola’s men are chasing a record-extending fifth consecutive top-flight title.
Arsenal are hoping to push City all the way, and while Liverpool no longer have Jürgen Klopp at the helm, Arne Slot is now guiding a squad practically identical to the one that threatened to be a real challenger until the final weeks of 2023-24.
And no doubt we’re in store for another highly competitive UEFA Champions League qualification battle involving the likes of Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle United and Manchester United.
At the other end of the table, Leicester City, Ipswich Town and Southampton are hoping to fare better than the previous teams to be promoted from the Championship – all three were relegated in 2023-24.
Now, all of that is a little far in the future to be given much consideration yet, but our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 12
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next weekend of Premier League football in 2024-25.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming round of matches, with the league table now taking shape as we embark on a busy run until the festive period. Liverpool lead champions Manchester City by five points at the top of the standings, while all teams have now recorded at least one victory.
The model has been performing very strongly in this campaign so far, although it struggled with its picks in the last matchweek before the international break in a rare off week. The supercomputer correctly called wins for the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Wolves, but did not see shock defeats for Man City or Tottenham coming.
The supercomputer will therefore look to bounce back on Matchday 12, which will see matches spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Man City are under huge scrutiny ahead of their key match at home to Tottenham on Saturday, with Pep Guardiola’s men looking to avoid a fifth consecutive defeat in all competitions.
There are two important fixtures on Sunday, with leaders Liverpool away at Southampton while Rúben Amorim takes charge of Man Utd for the first time on the road against Ipswich Town.
Newcastle United will then look to make it three Premier League wins in a row when they welcome West Ham to St James’ Park on Monday night.
Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 12: The Quick Hits
- Man City predicted to bounce back from their recent losses by defeating Tottenham at home.
- The Opta supercomputer believes Rúben Amorim will make a winning start to his Man Utd tenure at Portman Road.
- Chelsea and Liverpool both backed to record away victories this week, with Arne Slot’s Reds being our predictive model’s most confident pick of MD 12.
Despite winning just one of their last five Premier League games, Chelsea find themselves third in the table going into their match away to Leicester City in the Saturday early kick-off.
Chelsea will be confident of consolidating that position, as they have lost just one of their last seven Premier League away games against Leicester, recording wins on their last two visits by an aggregate score of 6-1.
Leicester, meanwhile, are winless in their last 13 top-flight games against sides starting the day in the top four of the table, with 10 defeats and 35 goals conceded as part of that troubling run.
Chelsea star Cole Palmer typically thrives against promoted sides. He has been directly involved in 10 goals in just five such league appearances, with six goals and four assists, averaging a goal contribution every 43 minutes.
All that means the Opta prediction model likes Chelsea’s chances of victory here. The visitors triumph in 59.5% of our pre-match simulations, with Leicester’s win probability down at 19.0%.
Few would have predicted Arsenal and Nottingham Forest being level on points after 11 matches of the 2024-25 season, but that is where we stand going into a key clash at the Emirates Stadium.
The Gunners have enjoyed victory in six of their last seven league games against Forest and have won each of the last four against them at home, so there is room for optimism ahead of manager Mikel Arteta’s 250th match in charge.
But Arsenal have only collected two points in their last four games coming into the clash and are on their worst league winless run since a seven-game streak towards the end of 2020.
Arteta will need to find a way to stop Chris Wood, who has scored 53.3% of Forest’s goals this season, with only the EPL top scorer Erling Haaland (54.5%) having netted a higher share of a team’s goals in 2024-25.
Still, the Opta supercomputer is confident in Arsenal’s chances of getting back on track, as they are handed a win probability of 67.6% – a bigger rating than any other home team this week – with Forest way down at 13.7% as the visitors bid to continue a stunning start to the campaign.
After two straight Premier League defeats, Aston Villa (57.2%) have slipped down the table before their home meeting with a Crystal Palace (20.5%) team who recently eliminated them from the EFL Cup.
Palace have not had a vintage start to the league campaign, but that is largely down to their poor finishing – they have the worst differential of any team between their expected goals and actual goals scored this season (-6.0, 14.0 xG, 8 scored), as well as having the worst shot conversion rate (5.1%).
After 1,026 games as a manager, Unai Emery has lost four consecutive games in all competitions for the first time, a run that started with that League Cup defeat to Palace last month.
Villa are backed to prevail by the supercomputer, but Emery should not expect a straightforward afternoon as he looks to avoid losing a third straight meeting with Oliver Glasner. That is a fate he has not suffered against another manager since March 2018 when he came up against Zinedine Zidane of Real Madrid.
Bournemouth are given a marginal edge by the Opta supercomputer going into what could be an entertaining encounter against top-four chasing Brighton & Hove Albion.
The Cherries are a real threat at home. They have won each of their last three league matches in front of their own fans – including victory over Arsenal and Man City – and could now win four in a row on home turf in the top-flight for the very first time.
They tend to like this fixture, having won four of their five home league games against Brighton, their highest win rate (80%) against any side they’ve faced more than three times at the Vitality Stadium.
However, only Liverpool (13) have won more points than Brighton (10) in the competition since the beginning of October, so Andoni Iraola will not be taking the visitors lightly.
Bournemouth’s chance of victory is 41.2%, with Brighton at 33.7% and the draw a real threat at 25.1%.
After some of their relegation rivals picked up points in recent weeks, Everton (40.5%) could do with snapping their three-match winless run when they play at home against Brentford (32.5%).
There are some statistics which will give Everton fans some hope. Their team have lost just two of their last 10 league games at Goodison Park, while Brentford have lost all five of their away matches this season and are now in danger of losing each of their opening six such games in a league campaign for the first time since 1961.
Everton have won three straight league meetings with Brentford and scored against the Bees in each of their last six top-flight games against them at Goodison Park, so they are marginally favoured by our predictive model.
While the supercomputer isn’t convincingly leaning in either direction, a more confident prediction might be goalmouth action and entertainment, as Brentford have seen 44 goals scored across their 11 Premier League games this season (22 for, 22 against), the most of any side.
This is another game where the draw is a threat, and with that chance rated at 27.0%, it is deemed the likeliest match across the 10 fixtures to finish all square this week.
Fulham will continue their shock bid for a European place when they take on Wolves, who finally got their first win of the season last time out.
With a win probability of 54.8%, Fulham are well backed for victory here, although they will know that four of their last eight meetings with Wolves, who are given a 22.2% chance, have finished level.
Marco Silva must find a way to stop in-form Matheus Cunha, who has netted in each of his last three away league games for Wolves and been involved in 26 goals overall (17 scored, nine assists) since the start of last season.
One of four straight losses suffered by Man City came against Tottenham in the EFL Cup, but our predictive model is confident that Guardiola’s men are about to get back on track in the Saturday early evening fixture.
Spurs have not been convincing in away matches of late, winning only two of their last 11 road games in the top flight and suffering seven defeats on their travels since March.
But Tottenham do tend to cause Man City problems – as well as the cup win at home, they have scored eight goals on their last three trips to the Etihad Stadium and earned a total of six Premier League wins over Guardiola since his appointment in 2016.
An intriguing encounter is in store, but Man City are given a 60.1% chance of victory, with Spurs down at 19.8% and perhaps satisfied if they can emerge with a draw (20.1%).
Into Sunday’s fixtures and Liverpool go in as overwhelming favourites to win away at promoted side Southampton.
The Reds are our model’s most confident prediction of the week with a win probability of 77.7%. Saints, meanwhile, are way down at 9.7%, so Slot has a huge chance of becoming the joint-fastest manager to reach 10 wins from the start of a Premier League career (12 games), alongside Guus Hiddink and Carlo Ancelotti (both in 2009 with Chelsea).
Liverpool have won 10, drawn three and lost just one of the last 14 league meetings with Southampton and Mohamed Salah comes into the fixture in fine form. The forward has been directly involved in 67% (14) of Liverpool’s 21 league goals this season (with eight goals and six assists), the highest ratio by a player for any side in 2024-25.
Ipswich are buoyant after earning their first win since promotion in impressive fashion at Tottenham, but they may find it hard to repeat the trick against Man Utd, who will be desperate to give Amorim a winning start.
Despite a tumultuous few years, one thing Man Utd have consistently done well is pick up points against promoted teams.
The Red Devils have won 17 of their last 19 top-flight games against promoted opponents and drawn the other two. Away from home, that record is nine consecutive victories against sides who have come up from the Championship.
Amorim has had limited time to deploy his coaching methods, but the Opta supercomputer thinks he has a good chance of making a winning start.
United are given a win probability of 54.8% so go in as healthy favourites, though that rate still gives Ipswich (22.2%) a fighting chance of getting something out of the game.
With the top half of the table looking congested, Newcastle hope to be one of the sides who start to emerge from the pack, with a home Monday clash against West Ham giving Eddie Howe’s men a chance to continue their recent resurgence.
Howe is unbeaten in five league meetings with the Hammers as Newcastle manager and his star striker Alexander Isak has scored in all three of his top-flight games against West Ham, netting a double in both meetings with them last term.
Isak therefore has a chance in this game to become the first player in Premier League history to score multiple goals in three consecutive matches against West Ham.
West Ham come into this fixture having not scored in their previous two outings, but they do usually find the net against Newcastle – scoring in 12 of their last 13 league meetings – so we may see an end-to-end battle to conclude Matchday 12.
The Opta supercomputer likes the look of Newcastle in this one, with a home win given a 58.9% chance and West Ham’s win probability much lower at 19.7%.
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