With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 14
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of a key midweek of Premier League football as the 2024-25 season continues.
Our predictive model has made its picks for the upcoming round of matches, with the league table now taking shape as we embark on a busy run up to the festive period.
Liverpool are 11 points clear of champions Manchester City at the top, which means Arsenal and Chelsea are the Reds’ closest challengers in the standings at the moment.
Matchday 14 will see games spread across Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday in a frantic midweek round.
Two matches on Tuesday include Ruud van Nistelrooy taking charge of Leicester City for the first time when they host West Ham.
There are six games on Wednesday, with Man City aiming to end their dramatic slump when they play at home to Nottingham Forest as leaders Liverpool make a potentially difficult trip to play Newcastle United at St. James’ Park.
Tottenham are away to Bournemouth in one of two games on Thursday, with just two points separating the teams coming into MD 14 despite them sitting seventh and 13th in the table respectively.
Ahead of what looks set to be an entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 14: The Quick Hits
- Man City predicted to beat Nottingham Forest to end their alarming run of form, with Pep Guardiola’s men in fact being our predictive model’s most confident pick of MD 14.
- The Opta supercomputer believes Arsenal will defeat Man Utd despite an encouraging first league win for Ruben Amorim against Everton on Sunday.
- Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool are also backed to record victories during the midweek action.
Ipswich Town (35.1%) and Crystal Palace (38.5%) are both on nine points and stuck near the bottom of the table, making their Tuesday clash at Portman Road a crucial one.
Palace usually fare quite well against promoted opponents, winning six, drawing four and losing just one of their last 11 such Premier League games.
But Ipswich’s narrow loss to Forest last time out was their first defeat in four and the Opta prediction model can barely split the teams, giving Palace only a most marginal edge. This fixture is therefore tied with Fulham versus Brighton & Hove Albion as the most likely clash to finish level this week. That draw chance is 26.4%.
Everton will take on Wolves, with both sides having lost last time out. It is Gary O’Neil’s visitors who have generally shown more signs of life over recent weeks, and they’ve impressed in this head-to-head over recent seasons too, winning five of the last six top-flight meetings.
With home advantage, though, Everton are seen as the more likely victors. Key to their hopes will be Dwight McNeil, who has been particularly good at home this season, totalling the most shots (13) and creating the most chances (13) for the Toffees at Goodison Park.
The Opta supercomputer hands Everton a 45.8% chance of victory in this one, with Wolves down at 28.5%.
Man City are well backed to end their miserable seven-match winless run, which includes six defeats, when they host Nottingham Forest.
Forest have not enjoyed their trips to Manchester since returning to the Premier League in 2022, losing all four of the away matches they have played against City and United by an aggregate score of 14-2.
They also have to contend with league top scorer Erling Haaland, who has 15 goals in his last 11 games at the Etihad Stadium in all competitions. The Norwegian has previously netted four times in just two home games against Forest.
It therefore is easier to understand why, despite their dreadful form, Man City are huge favourites at 66.8%, the biggest win probability given to any team this week.
Newcastle cannot seem to find consistency this season and now they must welcome in-form Liverpool to St. James’ Park.
Not only do Liverpool come into the match on the back of impressive Premier League and UEFA Champions League wins over Man City and Real Madrid respectively, but they also boast a proud record in this fixture.
Newcastle have lost their last six Premier League games against Liverpool, and are winless in 15 against the Reds, with four draws and 11 defeats in that sorry run.
Mohamed Salah has raced up to 11 goals and seven assists in the competition already this season. And he loves facing Newcastle too, having racked up eight goals and six assists against them in the top flight.
Despite those statistics, an away win over Newcastle is rarely straightforward, and the Reds’ win probability of 50.2% still gives the hosts a realistic chance of getting something from the game. The likelihood of a Newcastle win is 26.2%.
Chelsea are the most likely team to win away from home this week, according to the supercomputer.
The Blues travel to play bottom-placed Southampton on the back of an impressive home win over Aston Villa, their seventh league triumph of the season that put them level on points with Arsenal in second place.
Saints have beaten Chelsea in the last two top-flight meetings, but those recent results are not a reflection on how this fixture typically plays out.
Chelsea haven’t failed to score in any of their last 18 league away games against Southampton. The Blues have also only won more Premier League away matches against Tottenham (15) than they have against Southampton (14), and of the teams they’ve faced 20+ times away in the competition, their highest goals-per-game ratio is 1.9 against Saints (45 goals in 24 games).
Enzo Maresca’s men triumphed in 64.2% of our pre-match simulations, with Southampton’s chance of an upset down at 15.9%.
Arsenal are eyeing a third consecutive Premier League win when they take on Man Utd at the Emirates Stadium.
As well as coming into the match in good form, the Gunners have won three league games in a row against United, giving them the chance to make it four against the Red Devils for the first time in club history.
United did impress at home to Everton but are winless in six visits to the Emirates Stadium, with one draw and five defeats, and more broadly in their trips to London it’s been a real struggle for the Red Devils, who have just two wins from their last 18 visits to the capital in the Premier League, which both came against Fulham.
Bukayo Saka dazzled in the 5-2 win at West Ham on Saturday, and he has had a hand in five Premier League goals against United (3 goals, 2 assists) – second only to Thierry Henry (12 – 8G 4A) among Arsenal players in top-flight matches with the Red Devils.
Arsenal go in as strong favourites at 62.0%, with United given just a 17.8% chance of claiming an early statement victory under Amorim.
Aston Villa have failed to win in eight straight matches across all competitions, so the pressure is on as they host Brentford.
The Bees have not fared too well against the leading teams of late – they have not won any of their last 10 games against sides that finished in the top four the previous season, losing nine of those.
And despite some recent struggles for form, Villa have still lost just one of their last 11 league home games, so are given a 50.8% chance of getting back on track in front of their own fans, with Brentford at 25.6%.
Fulham (37.9%) and Brighton (35.7%) have been two of the more impressive teams outside of the ‘Big Six’ this season as they prepare to do battle at Craven Cottage.
Marco Silva’s team are unbeaten in all eight of their Premier League games against Brighton, with four wins and four draws – it’s the joint most times they’ve faced a side without ever losing (along with Norwich City).
It is also the most the Seagulls have faced a side without ever winning in the competition, but Brighton do go into the game four points better off than Fulham, and the system can barely split the teams.
At a rating of 26.4%, there is no midweek Premier League fixture more likely to finish as a draw.
Bournemouth host Tottenham in the final game of MD 14, and it is a clash the Opta supercomputer expects to be close.
Spurs are narrow favourites with a win probability of 43.8%, but Bournemouth are still competitive at 31.1% and come into the game on a high having beaten Wolves 4-2 at Molineux.
The Cherries have impressively seen off Arsenal and Man City at home this season, but they have not had as much success against Tottenham, winning just two of their 14 top-flight meetings and suffering 10 losses in that sequence, which includes defeats home and away last season.
Spurs also average 2.5 goals-per-game in the Premier League against Bournemouth (a staggering 35 goals in 14 games), their highest rate against any side they’ve faced at least 10 times, so Ange Postecoglou should have plenty of optimism.
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