With the help of the Opta supercomputer, we provide our Premier League match predictions for every match in each gameweek.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all Premier League matches and season outcomes.
Our AI-powered supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Premier League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest projections.
Matchday 20
The Opta supercomputer has delivered its latest selection of match predictions ahead of the next weekend of Premier League football in 2024-25, with the table now taking shape as we come to the end of a busy run of matches over the festive period.
Liverpool continue to set the pace, leading Arsenal by six points with a game in hand. It’s tighter at the bottom, where an upturn in form for Ipswich Town and Wolves means the likes of Crystal Palace, Everton and perhaps even Manchester United are now looking nervously over their shoulders.
After a strong season of match predictions overall last year, supporters are looking at the 2024-25 picks even more forensically, with the system enjoying a strong campaign this time around too.
Matchday 20 will see matches spread across Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
Seven of those clashes will take place on Saturday, with Tottenham hosting in-form Newcastle United to open the weekend.
Chelsea will hope to bounce back from a poor spell when they travel to play Crystal Palace, while champions Manchester City aim to continue their revival at home to West Ham.
The game of the week sees Liverpool host struggling rivals Manchester United on Sunday, while resurgent Wolves take on high-flying Nottingham Forest on Monday to round out the action.
Ahead of what looks set to be another entertaining group of Premier League fixtures, let’s check out the Opta supercomputer’s match predictions.
Premier League Predictions Matchweek 20: The Quick Hits
- Liverpool predicted to beat Manchester United, as the Reds continue their surge towards the title.
- The Opta supercomputer is backing Newcastle to edge out Tottenham in what should be an entertaining clash on Saturday.
- Aston Villa, Manchester City and Fulham are all forecast to win, while Liverpool are our model’s most confident pick of MD 20.
Tottenham find themselves in the bottom half of the table before they take on Newcastle in Saturday’s early fixture.
The Opta prediction model gives the visitors a slight edge in this one, with Newcastle handed a win probability of 41%. But that rating still makes it more likely than not that Spurs get something out of the game, with their victory chance set at 34.5%, and the draw a worthy contender at 24.5%.
Tottenham are winless in their last five Premier League home games, their longest such streak since a run of eight between March and October 2008 under Juande Ramos, while they last had a longer run in a single season between October 1993 and April 1994 (14), so the pressure is on Ange Postecolgou.
Spurs vs Newcastle is the most-played Premier League fixture never to finish 0-0 (59 meetings). There have been 189 goals scored in games between them, the third-highest scoring fixture in Premier League history.
Having achieved a Premier League double over Spurs in just one of 12 campaigns between 2008-09 and 2021-22 (2015-16), Newcastle could now do so in two of the last three (also 2022-23).
Aston Villa should expect to move closer to the European places with a win over struggling Leicester City, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Unai Emery’s team have a win likelihood of 68.2%, compared to Leicester’s 13.9%, while the draw possibility is 17.9%.
Despite our model’s confidence in Villa, it is worth noting that Leicester have won three of their last four Premier League away games against them. The Foxes had only won two of their first 10 at Villa Park in the competition.
In-form Bournemouth (53%) are at home to Everton (23%), who will have been disappointed to lose at home to Nottingham Forest last time out after earning three commendable draws against Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City going into that fixture.
Bournemouth are on their longest Premier League unbeaten run (seven games), while the Cherries have beaten Everton in five of their last seven top-flight meetings. The Toffees have never won an away match at the Vitality Stadium in the competition.
Crystal Palace are at home for a London derby against Chelsea, who are hoping to bounce back from going three matches without a win.
The supercomputer fancies Chelsea’s chances – they won 48.2% of the pre-match simulations, while Palace came out on top in 27.5%. A 24.3% likelihood of a draw means there is almost a one-in-four chance of the points being shared.
Palace have lost just two of their last 11 league games. However, both defeats in that run have been in home London derbies (2-0 vs Fulham, 5-1 vs Arsenal).
Chelsea, meanwhile, have won 12 of their 15 Premier League games at Selhurst Park against Palace – it is the joint-highest away win rate any side has against another in the competition (80% – min. 10 meetings).
Manchester City earned a much-needed win last time out at Leicester, and will hope to build some momentum as they host a West Ham team reeling after being thrashed by Liverpool.
Man City have won 14 of their last 15 Premier League home games against West Ham, including the last eight in a row since a 2-1 loss in September 2015. The London side are winless in their last 18 Premier League games against City home and away since that victory in 2015. Against no side have the Hammers had a longer winless run in their league history (also 18 vs Liverpool between 1983 and 1994).
City have failed to win either of their last two Premier League home games, despite opening the scoring both times. They have not failed to win three consecutive home league games despite scoring first each time since December/January in 2003-04.
Our model makes Pep Guardiola’s team comfortable favourites, though, at 68.3%. The Hammers have a meagre 14.5% chance of victory.
Southampton are rock bottom of the Premier League going into their home match with a Brentford side who are themselves short of form, having gone four top-flight games without a win.
Southampton have picked up just one win and six points in 19 matches. Only one team has ever won as few as six points through their opening 20 games of a campaign, with Sunderland doing so in 2005-06 (six), going on to finish bottom with 15 points.
However, our model forecasts this game as the likeliest to be drawn on MD 20, with a 25.9% chance of it finishing all square. Brentford won 38.6% of our data-led sims, while Saints won 35.5%.
An out-of-sorts Brighton & Hove Albion (24.9%) will play in-form Arsenal (51.1%) in the Saturday early evening fixture.
Having beaten Brentford 3-1 on New Year’s Day, the Gunners could move within three points of leaders Liverpool with a victory ahead of their title rivals playing a day later.
They will fancy their chances of doing just that when facing a Brighton team who are winless in seven league games.
Arsenal have won three of their last five Premier League games against Brighton (D1 L1), as many as they had in their first 10 against the Seagulls in the competition (D3 L4).
Into Sunday’s fixtures and Fulham go in as favourites for their match against Ipswich Town at Craven Cottage.
Marco Silva’s men are looking good in the top half of the table, while Ipswich are buoyant after recording their first home win of the campaign against Chelsea.
Fulham have picked up 29 points after 19 Premier League games this season (W7 D8 L4), their second most at the halfway stage of a campaign after 2022-23 (31 points). Indeed, it is more than they won in total in two of their last four full seasons in the competition (26 in 2018-19, 28 in 2020-21).
Fulham’s win likelihood is a healthy 58.9%, with Ipswich’s chances coming in at just 19.8%.
The headline fixture sees rampant Liverpool take on a Manchester United team who are in miserable form.
Even when Man Utd were not struggling as badly as they are under new boss Ruben Amorim, they have not enjoyed their recent trips to Anfield. The Red Devils have not won any of their last eight league away games against Liverpool (D4 L4), their longest such run since a series of nine games between 1970 and 1979.
Liverpool have lost just one of their last 13 league games against United, while after September’s 3-0 win at Old Trafford, Arne Slot could become just the second Reds coach to do the league double over United in his first season with the club, after George Kay in 1936-37.
United’s win probability of just 12.7% is the lowest of any team this week, while at 70.6%, Liverpool are the model’s most confident pick. The draw likelihood is 16.7%.
Both Wolves and Nottingham Forest are feeling good before they round out MD 20 with a key contest at Molineux on Monday night.
High-flying Forest have won their last five Premier League games – they have not won six in a row in the top tier since a run of seven between May and September 1979 under Brian Clough.
Vitor Pereira, meanwhile, picked up seven points in his first three league games in charge of Wolves – should they win this game, Pereira will have won more points (10) and games (three) than Gary O’Neil managed in his final 19 games in charge.
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