The rugby experts at Opta take a look at the some of the prospects who could be propping up the England scrum for the next decade.
With Joe Marler recently announcing his retirement, Dan Cole reaching the twilight of his career and both Kyle Sinckler and Mako Vunipola plying their trade in France, it feels like 2024-25 will be the season to mark a changing of the guard for England’s front row.
In the last 10 years, since the beginning of 2015, 67% of starts made by props have been by those four players, with 83% of England games seeing at least one of the four in the starting XV.
Although there are still experienced options available, such as Ellis Genge and Will Stuart – the only other players with five or more starts in that period – England have an opportunity to start blooding some young talent that could form much of their front row for the next decade.
The Premiership returns this weekend after the international break and there are just four props under the age of 25 who have featured for 200+ minutes this campaign. They are 20-year-olds, Afolabi Fasogbon and Asher Opoku-Fordjour, Fin Baxter who is two years older and Emmanuel Iyogun who celebrated his 24th birthday on Sunday.
All four front-rowers have represented England in some capacity this autumn, suggesting they are very much in the frame internationally. Baxter and Opoku-Fordjour featured for the test side during the Autumn Nations Series, with the latter also playing for England A against Australia, alongside Fasogbon and Iyogun.
We dive into some of the key stats that suggest these four young props – two looseheads and two tightheads – have bright futures ahead of them in the white jersey.
Fin Baxter
We start with Fin Baxter, who is arguably the most experienced of the quartet given he has now won six caps for England following his debut in the summer. His introduction to test rugby couldn’t have been tougher, with his first five caps all coming against the traditional Southern Hemisphere powerhouses of New Zealand (three times), South Africa and Australia.
In the Premiership this season, Baxter has been the most involved in attack of the young England hopefuls, making the most carries and gaining the most metres per 80 minutes of the four.
His ability to gain metres is made more impressive by the fact that he is largely carrying into contact. Despite not yet beating any defenders this season, Baxter has gained 51 metres in contact, over 10 more than any other prop in the English top flight,
It’s not just his ball carrying that packs a punch, Baxter’s defensive work is full of impact too. He’s averaged more tackles per 80 minutes than his three young counterparts, while his average of 2.1 dominant tackles per 80 minutes is not just the best of any prop, but the fourth best of any player in the league overall. Impressive given that it’s a stat usually dominated by back rows.
Asher Opoku-Fordjour
Asher Opoku-Fordjour is the other member of the quartet to get a taste of test rugby, making his debut off the bench in England’s final game of the Autumn Nations Series against Japan.
While Baxter relishes the collisions in open play, Opoku-Fordjour does so at the scrum. So far this season, he’s been involved in 12 penalty-winning efforts at the scrum (nine on own feed, three on opposition feed), a joint-high this term, alongside Leicester Tigers’ Nicky Smith.
Of course, winning penalties at the scrum is a team effort. However, the fact that he’s won 50% more penalties than his closest teammate (Simon McIntyre, eight) from fewer minutes on the pitch and a similar number of scrum involvements, suggests that the 20-year-old is certainly providing a point of difference at the set piece.
Taking those penalties as a percentage of his overall scrum involvements, the young Sale prop has seen his side win a penalty from 43% of the Sharks’ scrum feeds – a league high – and 12% of opposition feeds. Overall, just over one in four of his scrum involvements yields a penalty for Sale (26%), no prop can better that in 2024-25.
Sometimes, winning penalties at the scrum can be high risk/high reward, with teams who win a lot of penalties often conceding a lot too. However, with Sale winning seven more penalties than they’ve conceded when Asher Opoku-Fordjour has been on the pitch (the best differential of any player this campaign) the reward vastly outweighs the risk.
Afolabi Fasogbon
Afolabi Fasogbon has been similarly impressive at the scrum this season, particularly when it comes to disrupting opposition ball. Gloucester have won four of 17 opposition scrums with Fasogbon in the side, a 24% success rate – only Northampton’s Trevor Davison (29%) can boast a better rate out of the 25 props to feature for 160+ minutes in 2024/25.
Overall, Northampton have had a better rate at the scrum than the Cherry and Whites this season, which makes Fasogbon’s numbers all the more impressive. In fact, without Fasogbon, Gloucester haven’t won a single scrum on the opposition feed (0/9), meaning his presence in the front row has led to an improvement of 24 percentage points, the biggest positive differential any prop has seen this term.
He’s also been one of the busiest props this season, averaging six carries, 12 tackles and 29 ruck hits per 80 minutes. His combined total of 47 carries, tackles and rucks is only bettered by two props (min. 160 minutes), both of whom have played over 100 minutes less than Fasogbon in 2024-25 (George Kloska – 47.7, Will Goodrick-Clarke – 47.1).
Emmanuel Iyogun
Emmanuel Iyogun has also posted impressive numbers at the scrum this season and while he hasn’t had as destructive an impact as Opoku-Fordjour and Fasogbon, he is rock solid when Saints are in possession.
So far this campaign, he’s been part of 16 scrums when Northampton have had the put-in, with Saints retaining possession from all 16 efforts. No other player has been involved in as many attacking scrums than the 24-year-old without seeing their team lose at least one.
Outside of the set piece, his ball carrying is also a strength, with 61% of his carries seeing him get over the gainline. That rate is comfortably the best rate of any of these four highly rated props and the second best rate of any prop overall this campaign (61%), just behind Rhys Carre (62%).
With the Premiership returning this weekend and the European campaign kicking off soon, we should get the chance to see plenty more of these young stars in the coming weeks. How many will be in the England mix come the Six Nations?
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